My UK vs UofL preview for today, plus a prediction (sorta)
The 2018 Dream Game: what to expect from this new chapter?
Before the season, UK seemed a clear favorite in this battle of the a Bluegrass State. The Wildcats were ranked #2 nationally in the preseason, and UofL looked to have a transitional year with a new coach and a roster heavy on transfers. However, a season-opening loss to Duke by UK followed by some struggles against overmatched teams, along with UofL wins over a Michigan State and Seton Hall, led to a change in perception that maybe this Cardinal team might be tough enough to beat their rivals. But I don’t traffic in narrative and feeling, I look at the cold, hard, unforgiving data to identify how one team might outscore another. Before the game today, I have some thoughts.
Recent performances have reversed the early season trend
Over their last 5 games, Kentucky is 4-1 with the loss coming by one point in OT. They have 2 blowout wins during that time, and a neutral site victory over North Carolina. Excluding garbage time, UK is playing 31 points per 100 possessions better than an average team, after adjusting for opponent strength using KenPom ratings. Their worst performance was an adjusted +11 against Seton Hall, and their 2nd worst was +28.
During their last 5 games, Louisville is also 4-1, with their loss coming to Indiana by one point. The They have 1 blowout win and a quality win over Lipscomb, but also a win over a Robert Morris that was closer than expected. Excluding garbage time, UofL is performing 21 points per 100 possessions better than an average team, but the Central Arkansas blowout is inflating that (even with opponent adjustments). In their last 4, UofL is a rather consistent +17/+15/+22/+9points per 100 better than average.
Their recent performances definitely paint a picture of U.K. as a team on the rise, and UofL as a team that is stalling a bit.
Home court advantage for the Cards, but is that a big enough factor?
UofL is at home for this game, which offers up an advantage. That’s probably worth about 6 points per 100 possessions, or about 4 points in a typical college basketball game. That isn’t enough to make up the gap in recent performance, but is enough that the game should stay pretty close throughout. I believe the narrative that young U.K. teams struggle on the road is a bit over low, and is causing some people to overestimate the impact of the home court advantage. Last season, UK’s first road game happened in conference against LSU on Jan 5. UK won by 3; closer than you’d like against a non-NCAA team, but in line with expectations. The prior season, UK lost their first road game to a top-10 (per KenPom) UofL team, and blew out Ole Miss On the road in the following game. You have go to back to the 2015-16 season, when U.K. lost to middling UCLA and LSU teams on the road handily, to find their last true struggles in their road openers. In my opinion, that doesn’t lead to an expectation of massive underperformance by UK in this game.
Chris Mack is a wild card, given a solid history in rivalries
We have no idea how Chris Mack will approach h the Kentucky game for UofL, but he did a good job preparing his Xavier teams for their rivalry against Cincinnati. He never lost that rivalry as the home team, and even snuck in a neutral and road win. Granted, home/road designation doesn’t mean a ton when teams are in the same city, but it’s indicative that he prepared his team well to defend home court.
Fouls and free throw line will likely be the key factor
UK and UofL each rank in the top 10 nationally in free throw rate, as measured by free throw attempts per field goal attempt. It seems likely that both teams will get to the foul line a lot. Looking deeper into the stats, however, it appears that U.K. may have a bigger advantage here.
uofL has taken 321 free throw attempts this year, compared to 210 for their opponents. Because teams shoot much better on free throws than on field goals, that’s a big advantage towards having a good offense. This advantage has largely disappeared in games against top 100 teams, however. Against Tennessee, Marquette, Mich St, Seton Hall, Indiana, and Lipscomb (all top 100 teams per KenPom.com), UofL has shot 133 free throws compared to 129 for their opponent. Marquette, Seton Hall, and Indiana all had higher free throw rates than UofL.
by contrast, UK has consistently had higher free throw rates than their opponents. Only Seton Hall came close to having a higher free throw rate than U.K. in a game this year. However, that was a massive factor in UK’s loss. If UofL is able to come close to matching UK’s free throw rate, they are a serious threat to win.
iI think there is a high likelihood thatUofL’s big men will get in foul trouble in this game. Steven Enoch and Malik Williams each average more than 5 fouls per 36 minutes, making them rather foul prone. In UK’s last 5 games, they have forced an opponent’s starting big man to foul in 3 of them. Against UNC, they drew 4 fouls on 2 big men. The exception was Utah, where only 25 total fouls were called. None of the big men U.K. fouled out have been as foul prone this season as either Enoch or Williams, so U.K. should be able to draw fouls on those two.
For UofL, that’s bad news, because having Steven Enoch on the floor has been the biggest single factor in whether they win the foul battle.
With Enoch in this year, UofL fouls on 15% of their possessions and draws fouls on 24%. Without him, UofL fouls just as often as their opponents (22% of the time). It gets worse when Darius Perry and VJ King spit too,. Without any of those 3 in the game, UofL draws fouls on 22% of their possessions and commit fouls on 28%. That’s going be a recipe for disaster against U.K., who thrives at the foul line.
What’s likely happen?
Most of these numbers point to U.K. as having an advantage. They’ve been playing better lately, and are more likely to establish advantages at the free throw line, which is crucial for both teams. Furthermore, UK seems likely to get some of UofL’s key players in foul trouble.
The biggest wildcard for me is how UofL’s guards play. Christen Cunningham needs to be able to create half court offense against Ashton Hagans, who is a strong individual defender. When defending Hagans, Cunningham may be able to leave him to help in the post and on drives, since Hagans is not a threat from outside. This could help clog up UK’s offense a bit. Additionally, Darius Perry’s ability off the dribble has been huge in helping open up 3 point looks for other UofL wings. If Hagans and Quickley can contain him, this will bottle up some of UofL’s most effective offense.
I believe U.K. should be favored; if I had to pick, I’d predict the to win by 5 or so points. For UofL to win, Cunningham needs to be active as a help defender, and UofL needs to draw fouls on UK’s bigs faster than U.K. can do so on the Cardinals. For U.K. to win, they need to establish an advantage in drawing free throws and contain UofL’s dribble penetration. Both teams should be able to show off some strengths in this game, and it should be thrilling for fans of either team.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis