What You Should Know for UK, Dec 27: Lineups and Plus/Minus
UK has a strong plus/minus group who is barely playing, and their most played lineup is probably underachieving. Before I take a deeper look into some lineups and their plus/minus impact, here's the stats profile for the UNC game:
UK Stats Profile vs UNC, Dec 22
What You Should Know: UK played 11 different lineups against UNC across 81 possessions. The lineup of Immanuel Quickley/Tyler Herro/Keldon Johnson/PJ Washington/Reid Travis outscored UNC 4-0 in only 3 possessions, for a plus/minus of +4. That was the best for any UK lineup during the game. This lineup set the record for the fewest possessions played all season by a lineup that led UK in plus'minus for the game.
What Is Happening? Sometimes lineups who play few possessions get lucky and post a strong plus/minus, but this group played very well in their limited time. They entered together with 5:47 left in the first half, and their time ended with 4:51 left. During that short time, this group blocked North Carolina's only 2 shots, generated 2 fast break opportunities, and ran a Herro/Washington pick-and-roll that ended in an alley-oop dunk. Immanuel Quickley did a nice job defending UNC's Colby White on 2 drives, allowing UK's big men to step in as shot blockers.
It's not a huge surprise that this lineup played well. The grouping of Quickley/Herro/Johnson was +4 in 8 possessions against UNC, which is huge considering UK was +8 in 81 possessions as a team. This trio
has basically been either great or terrible, with little in between this season:
Great: Vs North Dakota (+8 in 17 poss), Vs Winthrop (+13 in 24 poss), Vs Tenn St (+15 in 35 poss), Monmouth (+16 in 23 poss), Vs UNC Greensboro (+14 in 11 poss), Vs Utah (+7 in 14 poss), Vs UNC (+4 in 8 poss)
Relatively Good: Vs Duke (-3 in 23 poss)
Terrible: Vs Southern Illinois (-11 in 15 poss), Vs VMI (-8 in 13 poss), Vs Seton Hall (-7 in 13 poss)
In their poor games, this group has been plagued by poor 2 point shooting, amazing opponent shooting, and heavy turnovers. They have, however, been consistently good at rebounding and avoiding fouling.
What Does This Mean For UK: It seems strange to me that the Quickley/Herro/Johnson trio has barely played the last 4 games, averaging less than 12 possessions per game. They looked great together in very limited time against UNC, and have accounted for nearly all of UK's margin of victory in several other games this season. Quickley has clearly fallen behind Hagans in the rotation, but it seems strange that he would be losing time to Jemarl Baker as well. UK should be giving consistent time together to these 3, who have proven more than any other UK grouping that they can lead the team to victory.
What Else You Should Know: Kentucky's coaching staff has clearly started settling into a favored rotation, with the lineup of Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Washington/Travis getting the most time together. Only 3 times this year has a UK lineup played 20 possessions or more in a game; all 3 featured this lineup, and they have occurred in 3 of the last 4 games (UNCG, Utah, UNC). Despite getting the most time, however, this lineup has not led UK in plus/minus in any of these games.
What Is Happening? UK's coaching staff has clearly taken to the dogged individual defense of Hagans, and have slotted him in with the other 4 players who have consistently started this season. This group played 68 possessions in the 3 games listed previously, which is nearly 3x as much as the 2nd most used lineup with Quickley in Hagans place. They are only +11 in those 68 possessions, however, with all other lineups being +34 in 139 possessions. Despite Hagans' defensive efforts, this group actually is struggling more on that end. They allow opponents a 56% effective FG% (up from 47% for the team). Despite Hagans' proclivity for steals, this lineup forces turnovers on 22% of opponent possessions (compared to 23% for UK as a team over these games). They have an adjusted margin of +0.29 points per possession, compared to +0.35 for UK as a team; this adjusted margin is actually the worst of any of UK's 4 most played lineups during these games. They have had the handicap of playing more against starter heavy lineups, with 53 of their 68 possessions against 4 or 5 starters, but they've actually been better against these tougher lineups (+12 against 4 or 5 starters, -1 against 3 or fewer).
What Does This Mean For UK: While it's not a great sign that the lineup that plays the most is not having as much success as less played lineups, it seems like the starters are due for more success than they've been having. Opponents seem to be shooting unsustainably well against them, and Hagans; defensive skills in particular should begin showing up in these lineup stats. Given that this group has been handling opposing starters, they should see an improvement against bench-heavy lineups and may be in line for a really dominating game, plus-minus wise.
UK's new starting lineup probably has its best performances ahead of them, given their surprisingly disappointing plus/minus. At the same time, the Quickley/Herro/Johnson trio has several strong plus/minus performances this season. If UK can establish a consistent rotation depending on these groups, they should put up more impressive wins against their very difficult conference schedule.
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