What You Should Know for UK for Dec 22: Hagans and Travis have a connection, but is someone getting left out?
In this newsletter, I'll offer up an interesting tidbit about how Ashton Hagans and Reid Travis seem to have a very strong chemistry together, and how that might be affecting UK's offensive balance. First, here are the stats profiles for the Utah game, as well as the most recent three games:
Stats Profile for UK vs Utah, Dec 15, 2018
Stats Profile for UK vs UNCG/Seton Hall/Utah, Dec 1-Dec 15, 2018
As always, all stats cited exclude garbage time (unless noted)
What You Should Know: Over the last 3 games, Reid Travis has taken 21% of Kentucky's shots when he is in the game. When Ashton Hagans is in the game with him, Travis takes 26% of UK's shots, but when Hagans is out Travis takes only 15%. Travis takes 72% of his shots when sharing the court with Hagans, even though only 61% of his minutes come alongside Hagans.
What Is Happening? If Travis is taking many more shots, somebody is taking fewer shots, and that person is Keldon Johnson. Johnson has taken 14% of UK's shots in the last 3 games, but he takes 28% when Travis is out, and only 6% when Travis and Hagans are in the game. The dropoff is more severe in 2 pointers, as he's only taken 3 of UK's 69 2 pointers (4%) in the last 3 games with Travis & Hagans on the court, compared to 3 of 15 (20%) when Travis sits. Watching the film, the issue appears to be UK's offensive sets with Hagans and Travis in the game. UK has both Travis and Washington planted around the paint on offense, and the driving lanes Johnson prefers seem to evaporate. This was most obvious in the Seton Hall game, where Johnson mostly stayed in a corner and went large stretches without a touch on offense when sharing the court with Hagans and Travis.
The increased shot volume for Travis comes at the expense of UK's 3 point shooting. Whether it's his choice or UK's play design, Travis post-ups don't tend to result in many kick-out passes for 3 pointers. The issue is compounded when Hagans is in the game, as he is a very reluctant three point shooter. When Hagans and Travis play together in the last 3 games, and UK's offense revolves around the post, only 28% of UK's shots are 3 pointers, and the Cats are making 28% of them. Over the last 3 games overall, 42% of UK's shots are 3 pointers, and 38% of them are made.
The offensive roles for UK players seem to be heavily skewed based on who else is in the game, leading to heavy imbalance in shot attempts. For example:
When Hagans plays, 67% of the shots are taken by Hagans, Travis, or Herro and only 24% by either Johnson or Washington; this is despite Johnson and Washington playing over 70% of the time Hagans is on the court
When Hagans is in but Travis sits, Johnson takes 28% of UK's shots; this accounts for 30% of his shots over the last 3 games, despite only being 16% of his minutes played
What Does This Mean for UK? Travis and Hagans have shared the court for about 60% of the last 3 games, and the most common lineup includes the two of them. UK needs to examine the offensive sets being run with this lineup, because these seem to be excluding Keldon Johnson (or limiting his role heavily). As noted above, these sets seem to be leading to predictable roles. For example, UK is in danger of an opponent largely ignoring Keldon Johnson on defense when Hagans and Travis play, and only guarding him heavily when Travis sits.
The good news is that there were some signs of change in the Utah game. 57% of UK's shots were 3 pointers, including 53% when Hagans and Travis shared the court. Keldon Johnson took 3 of UK's 26 shots (12%) when Hagans and Travis were in the game; not a huge amount, but better than the previous 2 games. Travis did still take 27% of UK's shots when Hagans played, but only 14% when Hagans sat. UK needs to find a bit more balance on offense and distributing shot attempts more evenly, regardless of who's on the floor.
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