What You Should Know about UK vs Seton Hall
In this newsletter, I'm going to try a new feature I call What You Should Know. I'll focus on a key stats (or stats) from a recent game (or stretch of games) that I believe you should know. I'll then dive into what is happening, and what I believe it means for UK. Before we get into that, here is the stat profile for UK's game against Seton Hall:
Stat Profile for UK vs Seton Hall, Dec 8, 2018
If you take a look at the stats profile, you'll see that UK's 2nd most played lineup (Quickley/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington) was outscored by 7 point in only 8 possessions. They'll be the subject of this What You Should Know.
What You Should Know: The lineup of Quickley/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington was -7 in 8 possessions against Seton Hall. This group had been +11 in 14 possessions in the prior game against UNC Greensboro, and a total of +26 in 34 possessions in the 4 games prior to Seton Hall. In fact, they were the focus of my last newsletter where I proclaimed UK was on the verge of becoming an elite team (here). Meanwhile, the lineup of Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington was +9 in 17 possessions against Seton Hall, but had been a disastrous -16 in 15 possessions against Duke and had barely played again until putting up a solid +5 in 22 possessions against UNCG.
What Is Happening? My last newsletter focused on how well UK had played with a core 7 man rotation, largely built off of a dominant second half against UNC Greensboro but reflecting the trend of several games prior. Playing a core of Quickley/Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington/Montgomery, UK had posted an adjusted margin of +0.47 points per possession over 4 games. Against Seton Hall, this core group was outscored by 1 point in 44 possessions, for an adjusted margin of +0.09 points. This was driven by the struggles of the aforementioned lineup with Quickley at PG. Where did they fall apart so thoroughly?
Just by glancing at the stats, we can see that the issue was on offense, not on defense. With Hagans at PG with the starters, UK scored 1.71 points per possession and allowed 1.18. With Quickley in place of Hagans, UK scored 0.13 points per possession and allowed 1.00. Watching the game film, it becomes pretty clear that this was just a very unlucky stretch from the field. With Quickley in with the other starters, UK went 0-4 on two pointers and 0-3 on three pointers. Of these 7 missed shots, only 1 was a low quality shot, when a 2nd half possession bogged down as the ball pinged around the perimeter while 2 to 3 Cats were in the lane. Tyler Herro got the ball with 4 seconds left on the shot clock and had to force up a three pointer just as the lane cleared. On the other 6 possessions, UK either got a good shot in the paint, or drove into a cleared lane and kicked out for an open 3. Included in these were a bobbled alley-oop from Herro to Travis, a missed wide open 3 from Johnson, and a missed layup by Washington off an offensive rebound. Typically, UK might get 6 or 7 points from these types of shots; instead, they got zero, and tallied their lone point with this lineup on a free throw.
What Does This Mean for UK? I see absolutely no reason for UK fans, coaches, players, or anyone to consider the Seton Hall loss to be an indicator of this team's true talent level. If UK had not had such bad luck on quality shots from a key lineup, they likely would have won in regulation by 5 or 6 points, even with the overall struggles through the 2nd half. Prior to Seton Hall, lineups with Quickley, Herro, & Johnson have scored well this season, averaging 1.21 points per possessions (UK averages 1.13 as a team). They even scored well against Duke, putting up 1.17 points per possession. They have had 3 games scoring poorly, and all were largely due to poor shooting on 2 pointers:
0.73 points per possession against Southern Illinois (30% on 2 pointers)
0.92 against VMI (38% on 2's)
0.62 against Seton Hall (20% on 2's)
Another reason not to worry to much is that UK actually has a recent history of losing precisely this type of game. Over the previous 3 seasons prior to this one, UK played 7 road or neutral games pre-conference against top 100 teams (per KenPom.com); they were 3-4 in them. Even more specifically, they were 0-3 in road/neutral games against teams ranked 51-100 per KenPom.com, with the losses to UCLA in 2016 and 2018 and Ohio State in 2016. Seton Hall is currently ranked 57th by KenPom, so this makes UK 0-4 over the last 4 seasons in exactly this type of game. Games away from home are difficult for young teams, but it appears UK can get motivated for top teams; they are 2-2 against top 20 teams, with wins over UNC in 2017 and Duke in 2016. I'd expect UK to bounce back in their upcoming games, and to particularly play very well against UNC next weekend in a neutral site game. UK's core 7 man rotation can play at a very high level, and will likely do so more often than not over the rest of the season.
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