UofL vs Michigan scouting report
All scouting reports for Michigan probably say the same thing...I want you to learn something new
The Wolverines are a devastating offensive team and a generally indifferent defensive one. Any scouting report you read will likely convey that message. My challenge today is to tell you something you can't get anywhere else. If, when you get done reading this, please feel free to email me at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights, and let me know how I did. Let's get started looking at the Michigan Wolverines.
Overall strengths and weaknesses
Michigan is a very efficient offensive team. Not only do they shoot well, they don't turn the ball over. However, they don't use their height very effectively on the interior (rebounding or defense). Here's how they rank in some key areas on KenPom.com:
7th in effective FG%
27th in 3P FG%
8th in 2P FG%
5th in turnover rate (offense)
11th in FT%
298th in offensive rebounding
212th in defensive rebounding
291st in drawing free throws
26th in allowing free throws
239th in blocking shots
The key takeaway is that the Wolverines are very good offensively. The way they get there is that they shoot really well on jump shots, and aren't very active in the paint. Only 22% of their shots come at the rim, while 45% come behind the 3 point arc. For comparison, UofL takes 36% of their shots at the rim and 32% behind the arc. Michigan will really spread the floor on you, and hits threes at a very high rate. Even though Michigan doesn't shoot near the rim much, their FG% is a ridiculous 79% when they do. They don't really use post-ups; instead, they will drive occasionally when the defense is spread out. Michigan doesn't do much in transition, likely because they struggle to get the rebounds necessary for a fast break.
While Michigan isn't great on defense, they do have a clear strategy. They try to force teams into 2 point jumpers as much as possible by guarding aggressively at the 3 point line, and helping aggressively when the ball gets into the paint. When opponents get 3's, they are usually open looks, but Michigan is very good at limiting those.
These numbers reflect their full season performance...but what if we just wanted to look at how Michigan played against NCAA-caliber teams? I crunched those numbers, to see what changes when the competition gets tougher.
The Wolverines are an incredibly consistent offense
Against top-50 teams, Michigan's offensive stats are nearly identical to their full season averages. They don't just beat up on weaker teams, and their offensive strategy (shoot 3's, not turnovers, ignore free throws and rebounds) seems to consistently work. Michigan's strengths (shooting, no turnovers) also seem largely unaffected by the specific opponent. Michigan's eFG% was better than the opponent usually allows in 16 of their 19 games against top-50 teams, and only South Carolina forced the Wolverines into a significantly bad shooting night. Michigan also seemed unaffected by opponent's attempts to force turnovers, only posting a turnover rate above 20% in 3 games (none sine Jan 29th).
So, it's tough to pressure Michigan into a bad offensive night. One of their most notable strengths is their ability to shoot well deep in the shot clock. This graphic breaks down Michigan eFG% in various clock situations:
Most teams shoot much worse later in the shot clock, but not Michigan. Their eFG% of 54% on shots late in the clock is better than 300 D-1 teams shoot overall.
To me, this is Michigan's biggest advantage. Most teams eFG% drops around 40% when the shot clock gets above 20 seconds, because whatever offense they ran probably didn't work and they devolve into isolation and forced shots. Not the Wolverines, however. They are very comfortable letting the shot clock wind down. I think this presents a significant challenge for UofL, as the Cardinals usually have a lot of success in forcing teams into bad late shots. A silver lining is that Michigan doesn't do much in transition, so all UofL needs to do is figure out how to defend Michigan in the halfcourt.
The only game where Michigan was really slowed down was against South Carolina. That game was on the road, the day before Thanksgiving, and Michigan posted a pathetic 21% eFG%. However, that result is a complete outlier. While South Carolina is a very good defensive team, Michigan simply missed from everywhere that night.
There is some hope when Michigan is on defense, however. In about half of Michigan's games, their opponents have shot better than their typical average. So, Louisville should be able to have a reasonably good shooting night. Michigan also gives up a lot of offensive rebounds; the only good offensive rebounding team who didn't have success against Michigan was Indiana.But, Oklahoma State just managed to collect over half of their own misses. Because Michigan doesn't fast break much, Louisville should feel free to crash the offensive glass.
Key Michigan Lineups/Combos
Against top-50 teams, Michigan has basically played a 7 man rotation of Walton, Irvin, Wagner, Wilson, Abdur-Rahkman, Robinson, and Donnal. The 6 lineups that play the most all feature these players, and the more common ones have had better results:
There's not a lot of weak spot in their core rotation for UofL to exploit. One possibility would be foul trouble for Michigan, which they don't really deal with much. The most likely cuplrit is Mortiz Wagner, Michigan's center, who has fouled out of 4 games this season. Michigan lost 3 of those 4, with the Wolverines falling apart in the last 5 minutes of each one. Without Wagner, Michigan's rebounding goes from bad to pathetic and Michigan tends to foul more. So, UofL could capitalize by scoring inside or drawing more fouls if Wagner has to leave the game.
Michigan's most vulnerable combo is their backup frontcourt pairing of Duncan Robinson and Mark Donnal. That's really the only time when Michigan's shooting dips (from 59% to 54%), and opponents shoot a ridiculous 65% against this duo. UofL should absolutely look to get Michigan's big men in foul trouble and capitalize on the poor defense of their backups.
Michigan is a bad matchup, but Louisville has some options
Louisville's strengths revolve around defense and limiting opponent's shooting. However, Michigan seems pretty immune to that. The Wolverines relish the opportunity to use clock and come up with good shots. Michigan's offensive strategy is very effective, and they will probably take and make a lot of 3's. Louisville needs to find lineups who can defend the 3 point line effectively.
On offense, Louisville should be aggressive driving to the basket and drawing fouls. Michigan can struggle a bit when their backup big men come in the game, and lost 3 games late when their starting center fouled out. Michigan also is effective at limiting opponent threes, so UofL needs to pose a threat from deep to keep the Wolverines honest. So, Louisville needs to find lineups who can draw fouls, while also being capable at shooting threes.
I'd look at Snider/Mitchell/King/Spalding/Mahmoud to accomplish this. This group has been very effective at drawing fouls against top teams, shoots threes frequently and at a good rate, and has held opponents to a below-average frequency of shooting 3's. The same lineup with Adel in King's place isn't as effective at drawing fouls or shooting threes, but limits opponent threes even better. These are the lineups I'd turn to frequently this game in order to neutralize what Michigan likes to do.
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