What You Should Know About UofL vs Indiana
Today I'm going to debut a new feature I'm calling What You Should Know, where I offer up a key stat (or stats) of note from a recent game (or stretch of games) that I think you should know. I'll then dive into what is causing it, and what that means for UofL. Before we get into that, here are the stat profiles for the most recent 3 games for UofL:
UofL Stats Profile for Central Arkansas/Indiana/Lipscomb
In the stats profile, you'll notice that one of the players highlighted for on & off-court impact is Ryan McMahon. He'll be the subject today of What You Should Know.
What You Should Know: Over the past 3 games, UofL has been +3 in 106 possessions with Ryan McMahon in the game and +32 in 96 possessions with him out of the game. Their adjusted margin per possession is +0.11 with him in, and +0.39 with him out.
What Is Happening? Plain and simple, UofL is struggling way more with McMahon in the game. It's not a case that he's playing against tougher lineups; only 46 of his 106 possessions are against 4 or 5 starters, compared to 68 of the 96 possessions when he sits. It's more of a defensive issue than an offensive one, as UofL's points per possessions are just barely lower with him in, but their points allowed per possessions rises from 0.73 when he sits to 0.96 when he plays. The issue is largely due to the Indiana game, where UofL was -17 in 37 possessions with McMahon in and +16 in 33 possessions when he sat. So, we'll focus on that game to see if we can figure out what is causing the huge difference.
Even just looking at the Indiana game, the issue isn't that McMahon is playing against tougher lineups. He played 20 possessions against 4 or 5 starters, vs 27 when he sat. The issue also isn't that McMahon played with more of UofL's bench players. His most common lineup was when he played with Christen Cunningham, Jordan Nwora, Dwayne Sutton, and Steven Enoch; those 4 usually start together for UofL with Darius Perry. McMahon's 2nd most common lineup against Indiana was this same group with Malik Williams in for Enoch. He played 16 possessions alongside these 2 groups and UofL was outscored by a whopping 19 points. These groups with Darius Perry in McMahon's place played 25 possessions and outscored Indiana by 9 points. What went wrong during this stretch? Is it all McMahon's fault?
Watching the game film, there's not much obvious that McMahon is doing to make UofL worse in this game. The offense is pretty stagnant when he's in, but McMahon is doing his usual spotting up, and his defender isn't really involved in clogging up the play. On defense, McMahon is active and doesn't shown any obvious signs of breaking down. It's less about what McMahon is doing, and more about what he isn't doing, however. Most of McMahon's minutes against Indiana came alongside Christen Cunningham. Cunningham was clearly bothered by the defense of Indiana's Rob Phinisee, and was largely unsuccessful at creating off the dribble. McMahon's role on offense is largely to spot up on the perimeter and look for open threes; 47 of his 57 shots this year are threes. He's most effective when playing alongside players who can drive to the basket, as this either draws McMahon's defender and leaves him open, or creates an open driving lane if McMahon's driver does not help. When the point guard struggles to beat his man off the dribble, McMahon plays almost no role on offense, and UofL's offense bogs down. On defense, there's a similar (but less dramatic) occurrence. McMahon is not a strong on-the-ball defender, so he is hid on a lesser perimeter player and allowed to help off of them. But, Indiana's perimeter players are either too big and athletic for McMahon to guard (Romeo Langford) or too good of three point shooters (Rob Phinisee and Aljami Durham, both over 40% on the year from 3). McMahon is unable to help off of them, and isn't enough of a nuisance on the ball, so he ends up having very little impact in this game. Most of the issues in this game on defense were in the paint, but McMahon had very few possessions where he was able to exert influence on the defensive end.
What Does This Mean? This absolutely doesn't mean that Ryan McMahon should necessarily be playing less for UofL. However, it means that UofL needs to put him in situations where he can perform his role. UofL has not had a lot of success when McMahon plays alongside Cunningham this season; even excluding the Indiana game, UofL is only +2 in 112 possessions they have shared. They've been good on defense, allowing 0.84 points per possession (down from 0.92 on the season), but disastrous on offense, at 0.86 points per possession (down from 1.04 on the season). However, the combo of Ryan McMahon and Darius Perry has been very good, outscoring opponents by +23 points in 110 possessions and scoring 1.08 points per possession. The key is that Perry is more dynamic off the dribble than Cunningham, which breaks down the defense and makes McMahon a threat. Perry's ability off the dribble opens up 3's for all of UofL's wing players, in fact:
Player % of FGAs as 3's, with Perry % of FGAs as 3's, without Perry
Ryan McMahon 89% 79%
VJ King 35% 31%
Dwayne Sutton 56% 50%
Jordan Nwora 49% 46%
Darius Perry's role also completely changes when he shares the court with McMahon, compared to when he plays without him. With McMahon on the court, Darius Perry takes only 10% of UofL's shots, and assists on 35% of UofL's baskets. Without McMahon, Perry is almost always playing alongside Christen Cunningham or Khwan Fore and becomes more of a secondary ballhandler and a scorer; he shoots 19% of UofL's shots and assists on only 14% of UofL's baskets.
Given Darius Perry's ability to open up looks from 3 for his teammates, Ryan McMahon should play a majority of his time alongside Perry. Against Indiana, the two only played together for 2 possessions. UofL has to capitalize on Ryan McMahon's skill set by putting complimentary pieces around him.
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