Is UK Becoming Elite? Thoughts after the UNC Greensboro Win
Did the real UK finally show up against UNC Greensboro?
At halftime of their last game, Kentucky trailed 40-37 against UNC Greensboro. This was not some mid-major patsy like some of UK's other early-season opponents; this was a solid team who had nearly upset Gonzaga in last year's NCAA Tournament. It looked like UK was in for a real battle, and they were for most of the 2nd half. By the time the dust settled, however, UK had pulled away comfortably and prevailed by 17 points. How did things turn around so dramatically? I'll dig into the data, but first, here are the stats profiles for the game and the season so far:
UK Stats Profile vs UNC Greensboro (Dec 1, 2018)
UK Stats Profile: 2018-19 season through Dec 1, 2018
As always, stats profiles exclude garbage time....
A tweak to the rotation
In the first half against UNC Greensboro, Kentucky shuffled players liberally. Of the 38 total possessions in the half, 8 Wildcats played at least 14, with only Nick Richards not playing (among the typical 9 man rotation). 11 unique lineups played, no lineup played more than 8 possessions and only 2 played more than 4. The most common lineup was Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington, who outscored UNCG by +2 points in 8 possessions. The top plus/minus lineup was Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Washington/Montgomery, who was +7 in 3 possessions. Ashton Hagans had a nice impact, as UK was +4 in his 28 possessions and -7 in the 10 he sat. PJ Washington also performed well, with a +6 in 21 poss and -9 in the 17 he sat.
But UK's coaches decided to make some tweaks for the 2nd half that set the stage for a dramatic reversal.
First, the rotation was trimmed to 7 players; Quade Green (1 possessions) and Nick Richards (2 possessions) were not a factor. Second, fewer lineups were played; only 8 lineups were used in the second half. Lastly, key lineups were heavily played. Hagans/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington played 14 possessions and Quickly/Herro/Johnson/Travis/Washington played 10; the other 6 lineups combined for 9 possessions. It was this 2nd lineup that made the difference, recording a whopping +14 in 10 possessions. They did not allow Greensboro to score a single point in the 2nd half, remarkably. It was a stunning turn of events that powered UK to a comfortable victory.
It seemed like the UK coaches settled on a tight rotation of players and lineups in the second half. It remains to be seen if that will continue going forward, but let's assume it does. If UK is going to rely on this 7 man rotation, what can we expect from UK going forward?
An all-freshman backcourt steps up
UK's freshman guards were baptized in fire in the opener against Duke, and seemed to be reeling for a few games afterwards. Their technique on defense was poor, turnovers were rampant, and the offense was a mess. Over the first 4 games, UK was -14 in 68 possessions with Quickley/Herro/Johnson and -10 in 37 possessions with Hagans/Herro/Johnson. During the same stretch, UK was +36 in 156 possessions when Quade Green played. His experience was clearly helping to stabilize the backcourt. But freshmen grow up quickly these days, and things changed...
Over the last 4 games, UK is +3 in 108 possessions with Quade Green in. They are +5 in 44 possessions with Hagans/Herro/Johnson playing. But, they are now a staggering +55 in 96 possessions with a backcourt of Quickley/Herro/Johnson in the game! Looking at their advanced stats shows improvement across the board:
It's pretty clear that this group is jelling together, and has quietly been carrying the Wildcats for the past few games. Just look at their plus/minus contributions:
Vs Winthrop: +13 in 24 possessions (UK wins by 13)
Vs Tenn St: +15 in 35 possessions (UK wins by 15)
Vs Monmouth: +16 in 23 possessions (UK wins by 46)
Vs UNC Greensboro: +11 in 14 possessions (UK wins by 17)
Other than the Monmouth game, UK's other backcourt options struggled to extend the Wildcats' lead. It seems like this trio has established themselves as crucial to UK's best lineups. Oddly enough, in the most recent game this trio only played with PJ Washington and Reid Travis. However, they've been excellent recently with EJ Montgomery as well. The stats profile for the last 4 UK games shows a very different team in this short stretch.
The returns have been more mixed when working Ashton Hagans into the lineup. He's usually been a straight swap for Quickley, and results haven't been good. Here are the plus/minus numbers with Hagans in and Quickley out:
Vs Winthrop: -9 in 19 possessions
Vs Tenn St: -3 in 12 possessions
Vs Monmouth: +8 in 24 possessions (+19 in 34 including garbage time)
Vs UNC Greensboro: +11 in 43 possessions
The UNC Greensboro game was the best performance all year for UK with Hagans in the game. Even with that, UK's adjusted margin was better with Quickley in the game (+0.44 vs +0.35 with Hagans). If the returns from the Greensboro game are reflective of his contributions going forward, UK has a great 7 man rotation that will have very few stretches where they get outscored. If he reverts to his earlier form, UK will probably hit a few rough patches while he continues to adjust.
Finding a role for the remaining sophomores
That leaves Quade Green and Nick Richards to prove they are deserving of roles. While they clearly have not shown that they are ready for the same major roles as the main 7, there may be some situations where Green and Richards can be productive for UK.
Quade Green had a very good start to the season, as mentioned above. Lately he's not made the same kind of impact. However, there is a specific group with Green which has consistently posted a strong plus/minus. The combo of Quickley/Green/Johnson has posted a +22 in 48 possessions, with Green mimicking Tyler Herro's shooting and filling in capably. Their minutes together have been inconsistent, but they have posted a +7 in 20 possessions vs Southern Illinois, +9 in 9 possessions vs VMI, and +5 in 8 possessions vs Winthrop. Unlike other UK lineups, this group did not inflate their stats in the Monmouth blowout, as they did not play together in that game. This could be a good way to work Quade Green in and give Tyler Herro a rest.
Nick Richards has not had a strong plus/minus impact so far this season, with UK being only +6 in his 171 possessions. Richards has been most successful when paired with PJ Washington, with UK posting a +8 in their 76 possessions together. Opponents have shot only 33% from 2 point range against this duo, and UK has grabbed 78% of the available defensive rebounds. They posted a strong +7 in 20 possessions against Southern Illinois and +13 in 21 possessions against Winthrop, offset by a -10 in 7 possessions against Duke. UK should look to give Richards some minutes alongside Washington to build his confidence without risking too much.
The potential for an elite team
If UK can stick to their core 7 man rotation of Quickley/Herro/Johnson/Hagans/Washington/Travis/Montgomery, the recent evidence indicates they can be an elite team. In their last 4 games, UK is +58 in the 122 possessions played solely by members of this core, and only +9 in 140 possessions including other players. With the stats put up by their core rotation during the last 4 games, UK would rank:
6th nationally in effective FG%
1st nationally in offensive rebound rate
14th nationally in free throw rate
Even with turnovers still being a bit of a problem, this group would likely be one of the top handful of offenses in college basketball! Their defense would also be outstanding, ranking:
12th nationally in effective FG% defense
28th nationally in defensive rebound rate
1st nationally in opponent free throw rate
49th nationally in opponent turnover rate
Again, that's the recipe for one of the top handful of defenses in college basketball. Quite simply, UK has been elite over the past 4 games when playing their core 7 man rotation, and will likely continue to be elite if they can stick to that group.
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