Digging into UK's Defensive Issues
UK made their opponents thankful during Thanksgiving week
Over the last several years, Kentucky has tended to play stretches of 3 games within 7 days around the Thanksgiving holiday. These tend to be games against pretty poor mid-to-low major teams, and UK tends to go 3-0 in these stretches. The Wildcats again went 3-0 this season, but didn't win by more than 15 points against any of their opponents, who were ranked 311th (VMI), 160th (Winthrop), and 279th (Tennessee State) according to KenPom.com. The Cats did bounce back to throttle Monmouth by 46, but the 3 game stretch was very concerning to fans. Before I get into the analysis about where things broke down, here are the one-page stats profiles for the last 4 games, as well as the season to date:
UK Stats Profile vs VMI (Nov 18, 2018)
UK Stats Profile vs Winthrop (Nov 21, 2018)
UK Stats Profile vs Tennessee State (Nov 23, 2018)
UK Stats Profile vs Monmouth (Nov 28, 2018)
UK Stats Profile: Season through Nov 28, 2018
As always, stats profiles exclude garbage time....
As any UK fan knows, the Cats had tremendous issues defending the three point shooting of VMI and Winthrop. Kyle Tucker of The Athletic wrote an excellent article breaking down every one of the 32 made threes in those two games, and how UK's defense broke down. I was inspired by his article to go through the advanced stats on these games, and more.
I wanted to look for lineups who were either extremely bad or extremely good defending the three in these two games. I looked at 2 opponent stats: the frequency of 3 point shots (3 point attempts as a percentage of all field goal attempts) and three point shooting percentage. I found 2 polar opposite lineups to examine.
The lineup of Hagans/Green/Johnson/Travis/Richards was extremely poor defending the three against VMI. VMI took 4 shots, all threes, and hit them all. This lineup played the early stretch from 15:56 to 12:09 remaining in the first half. This group had a few bright spots, shooting 4-5 from the field, with 3 assists on their 4 baskets. They also forced 3 turnovers. This was completely undone by allowing the 4 3 pointers, however, and this group was outscored 12-8 in under 4 minutes. I decided to review the film to see what went wrong, and how much of it was bad luck compared to poor play.
Kyle Tucker did a nice job in his article of describing the action on these shots, but I noticed something as I watched the film. Every single one of these plays involved breakdowns by 2 UK players: Ashton Hagans and Nick Richards. The first 3 shots involve on-ball screens, with Hagans on the ball and Richards on the screener. On the first, Richards is slow in stepping up on the screen, and the dribbler pulls up for an open 3. On the next, Hagans and Richards both stay with the ballhandler, and the screener is open for a 3. Ont he third, Richards is again slow in stepping up, and the ballhandler steps back and drains a long 3. The fourth play involved Richards again being slow to step up on a screen, but the ballhandler drives and passes out. The ball is then rotated to Hagans' man, as Hagans had slid down near the lane and completely left his man. Note that his man in this case was Bubba Parham, who had already drained a couple of three pointers. This was a disastrous string of defensive possessions by Hagans and Richards, with effectively none of their teammates involved. VMI was able to get right into their offensive set and get the shots they wanted quickly.
Tucker's article focused only on made 3's, but I also wanted to look at UK lineups who didn't allow threes to see if they did something different. I found one lineup in particular that stood out: Quickley/Green/Johnson/Travis/Washington played together from the 4:38 mark to 2:43 left in the 2nd half, and outscored VMI 8-0 during a key late stretch. VMI again used screeners to try to free the ballhandler, but this lineup held VMI to 0-1 on threes. PJ Washington in particular was key, as he attacked the ballhandler aggressively on the screen. VMI's Bubba Parham is an undersized guard, listed at 5'11 and 155 lbs. This UK lineup was doubling him (and other ballhandlers), erasing the chance for a pull-up 3 or an easy pass. Other UK defenders did a great job of not leaving their man to help unnecessarily, so there were no open 3's. This group also played together from 2:51 to 1:16 left in the first half against Winthrop, allowing no three pointers to be attempted and outscoring Winthrop 7-3. Again, the big men shut off the ballhandler on screens, and other players were disciplined in covering shooters. VMI and Winthrop shot 1-5 from the field against this lineup, with 3 of the shots coming in the last 8 seconds of the shot clock. This UK group just did not let the opponent get the shots they want
UK's pick-and-roll defense is key, and PJ Washington is good at it!
Pick-and-roll defense is difficult, especially for young players. Instincts and communication are key, and these don't get developed in a matter of a few practices. Given that, I'm confident that many of UK's players can get better through this year. With that said, there are some clear trends in the data so far this season.
Watching game film, the Hagans/Richards duo has trouble guarding ballscreens. This is reflected in the data, as opponents take 72% of their shots in the first 20 seconds of the shot clock, with a 71% eFG%. When both players are out and PJ Washington is playing, ballscreens are guarded better, opponents don't get good early shots, and take only 63% of their shots in the first 20 seconds with an eFG% of 48%.
There is some hope for UK in this regard. First, Richards had some better play in the Monmouth game despite limited minutes. Around the 2 minute mark of the 1st half, he was put in a screen and did a nice job of moving with the ballhandler on the drive, and blocked the shot.
Second, UK can play Hagans and Richards together less, and they have. In the first 5 games, Hagans and Richards were in the game together for 53 possessions, or over 10 per game on average. In the last 2 games, they have played just 7 possessions together. UK should absolutely limit their minutes together against any opponent who uses a lot of pick-and-roll action, especially against point guards who are a threat from 3.
UK's next opponent, UNC Greensboro, does have 2 guards who shoot more threes than twos in Demetrius Troy and Francis Alonso. However, the 3rd guard in their 3 guard lineup, Isaiah Miller, is an infrequent 3 point shooter. UK should play Hagans on Miller, or backup guard Kaleb Hunter, to limit the chance that Hagans' defensive miscues result in a three pointer. Richards should play most often as a post defender, where he can contest shots and rebound pretty well, and be played less when opponents use him in screens. UK fans should keep a close eye on the pick-and roll defense of these two to look for improvement; until it comes, UK will have to be careful with their time, and rely more on PJ Washington to help the defense.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis.