Revisiting Some Trends for UofL
2 strong opponents, 2 tough losses
The Cards came up short in both of their matchups in New York last week, losing to both Tennssee and Marquette. Both opponents seem likely to make the NCAA tournament, so losses are not necessarily surprising; UofL was highly competitive in both games. These games also represented a notable step-up in competition, as UofL's first 3 wins came over teams rated 277th, 343rd, and 135th nationally by Ken Pomeroy. Tennessee rates 10th, and Marquette 36th, by comparison. It is useful to look at how UofL played against these opponents compared to their first 3 wins, so we'll start with the stats profiles for these last 2 games, and for the season to date:
UofL Stats Profile: vs Tennessee and vs Marquette
UofL Stats Profile: Season to date through Nov 24
There's no two ways about it; UofL was worse in almost every way in their last 2 games than their season averages. Take a look at some key team stats for the season so far:
and those same stats for just the Tennessee and Marquette games:
UofL was worse in nearly every single stat. That's not terribly surprising, since Tennessee and Marquette are much better opponents, but it is troubling that UofL dropped off in nearly every way. Of the stats above, only one is adjusted for opponent strength: Adjusted +/- per possession. UofL is +0.15 for the season, but was +0.10 against Tennessee and Marquette. This stat adjusts per possession scoring margin using Ken Pomeroy's ratings to provide context, so getting outscored by 14 points in these 2 games was only slightly worse than outscoring the weaker opponents across the first 3 games. A difference of 0.05 may not seem like much, but across 150 possessions that's nearly 8 points difference...I think UofL fans would feel very differently about their team's performance if the Cards had lost to Tennessee by 7 and beat Marquette by 1.
Let's accept the adjusted margin difference, and say that UofL played a bit worse in the last 2 games. Can we find any underlying causes?
UofL's rotations were out of whack in New York
Looking at the stats profile one-pagers, we can see that the lineups UofL had preferred didn't get much time together in New York. The typical starting lineup of Cunningham/Perry/King/Sutton/Enoch played 52 possessions together in the first 3 games, but only 8 across the two losses. Those 52 possessions were almost 4x the amount any other lineup had played in the three wins, but the 8 possessions in New York made them the 5th most played lineup. It's almost always a bad sign when a team suddenly stops playing their favorite lineup, and that certainly hurt UofL in New York, since their preferred group had put up a +0.31 adjusted margin on the season.
In fact, the 2 lineups UofL played the most in New York had not played together for a single second during the opening 3 wins. The 3rd most common lineup in New York had played for a total of 1 possession together. If UofL hoped to build on their 3 early wins in these games, that was rendered impossible by the new rotations.
Strong trends from the opening wins didn't hold up in New York
As I wrote about last week, UofL had some notable trends in their opening 3 wins. In particular, Khwan Fore and Dwayne Sutton stood out as positive contributors to UofL's early wins. How did that hold up in the losses?
While Fore had been a spark plug in nearly every stat early on, his impact was more mixed in the 2 losses. He didn't help UofL draw more free throws or force turnovers, and the team's adjusted margin was better when Fore was out of the game. In the opening wins, UofL had forced turnovers at a much higher rate with Fore in, which had been a big factor in UofL's stronger adjusted margin with him in.
Sutton's ability to draw free throws and snag offensive rebounds had paid off in the early wins, as UofL was outscoring teams more with Sutton in the game. These advantages didn't show up against Tennessee or Marquette, however, and UofL was much better with Sutton on the bench in those games.
In their 3 opening wins, UofL lived at the free throw line to an absurd degree. It would not have been unusual to expect that continue against a Tennessee team that is known for giving up free throws; last season the Volunteers were 264th nationally in allowing free throws. However, UofL drew fewer free throws than Tennessee in their matchup. But, looking a bit deeper, we can see some positive signs that indicate UofL might be able to sustain their free throw advantages through the season. During their 3 opening wins, UofL drew free throws nearly 3 times as often when Steven Enoch was in the game (1.33 FTA per FGA) than when he was on the bench (0.52 FTA per FGA). Against Tennessee, UofL drew 0.59 FTA per FGA when Enoch played, but only 0.33 FTA per FGA when he sat. The foul trouble that limited Enoch's minutes may have helped keep UofL off the free throw line, and could have cost them as many as 9 points. If UofL had posted a FTA/FGA of 0.60 instead of 0.40, they would have shot 36 free throws instead of 24; 12 extra free throws at 75% is 9 points!
I believe that UofL fans should not put too much stock in the 2 losses. It would be a much more dire situation if UofL had played their preferred rotations and been clearly outclassed, but that wasn't the case. UofL's starters had played well in the first 3 games, but the Cards had struggled to find solid bench lineups. After these 2 losses, UofL still hasn't identified dependable bench lineups, but there's little reason to believe the starters can't continue to be successful. Additionally, UofL showed they can draw free throws against foul-prone teams with Steven Enoch in the game. UofL's next 3 opponents (Michigan State, Seton Hall, and Central Arkansas) rank 246th, 182nd, and 306th nationally in allowing free throws. If Enoch is able to play 25+ minutes in these games, UofL should show up well in these games. If not, the Cards need to find an identity they can rely on.
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