UK Season Check-In: Whoa, Quade Green!
As always, I'll start by posting the one-page stats profiles from the latest game:
UK vs VMI, Nov 18, 2018
In this newsletter, I'll also be sharing the one-pager for the season to date:
UK Season Stats Profile through Nov 18
Through 4 games, what is notable about UK?
This will be a shorter update today, focusing on some numbers of interest for the UK season so far. Whenever a team has a large number of newcomers, there's a significant adjustment period where players adapt to their roles on the team. There's often a tremendous amount of growth during the season; a great example is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season. After a handful of games, he had shown little consistency; he later developed into a lottery pick. Keep in mind, UK is going to develop significantly during the season. With that in mind, what stats and trends might be important?
Quade Green is having a huge impact on his teammates
Quade Green has served as a steadying influence in the backcourt so far this season, and a useful veteran presence on the team:
Aside from UK's turnover rate being a bit higher with him in the game, the Wildcats are better in nearly every way with Green on the court. When UK replaces Green with any other guard, the Wildcats have a negative scoring margin on the season, and play slightly worse than an average team (by adjusted margin per possession). Green also has a notable impact on the player on some of his teammates:
Tyler Herro appears to be more confident with Quade Green alongside him: Herro has hit 50% of his 3s when playing alongside Green, and 17% without him; Herro also takes 29% of UK's shots when Green is playing with him, and only 20% when Green sits
Quade Green and PJ Washington have solid chemistry from their experience together: Washington has an effective FG% of 77% and takes 31% of UK's shots with Green on the court with him; Washington's eFg% drops to 57% and he takes only 18% of UK's shots when Green sits
These individual stats are carrying over to better team play:
UK has been outscored by 22 points in when Herro plays without Green, but has outscored opponents by 7 points in 62 possessions when Green and Herro are together
UK is a horrific -36 in 60 possessions when PJ Washington plays without Green, but +52 in 97 possessions when Washington plays with Green
UK's has yet to find their "best" lineup
The lineups UK has played the most this season have not been finding the most success:
UK doesn't have any single lineup that they've relived on heavily so far. It's clear that the coaching staff is experimenting with some combinations. The 5th lineup on the list above (Green/Quickley/Herro/Washington/Montgomery) outscored North Dakota 15-0, and VMI 6-2, in limited time; that's a group that's worth playing more. Lineups with Green and Quickley have outscored opponents by 37 points in 89 possessions, while dominating the free throw battle. It's a small sample so far, but I think it's worth getting Green some more time...possibly even in the starting lineup.
UK doesn't have may difficult games coming up, so the coaching staff should be using these games to experiment and find strong lineups. Here are a couple of groupings I think are worth playing more:
Green & Herro backcourts, as mentioned above
Green & Quickley backcourts, as mentioned above
Washington & Montgomery: they have been +19 in 48 possesisons; opponents are shooting only 35% on 2's against their rim protection, and UK gets 83% of the defensive rebounds with this duo
Keldon Johnson & Nick Richards: Johnson's slashing ability sets Richards up well for offensive boards, and Richards gets 23% of UK's missed shots with Johnson in vs only 8% when Johnson it out of the game
Keep an eye on these combos over UK's next few games and see if the Wildcats start to click when these duos play together.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis.