UofL's Rotations So Far: Who Stands Out?
As always, I'll start by posting the latest stats profile one pagers for UofL:
vs Vermont Nov 16, 2018
In this newsletter I'll also be sharing the one pager for the season to date:
UofL Stats Profile through Nov 19
As always, these stats profiles exclude garbage time. Therefore, the stats shown may not exactly match other sources that do not filter garbage time, or filter it differently.
What stands out for UofL so far this season?
UofL is now 3 games into the Chris Mack era, so we can take a look at how the team has performed and identify anything notable. With such a small sample size, any results so far aren't going to be very predictive about what happens the rest of the season. However, it's useful to watch the next few games to see if these trends continue. If so, tweaks to rotations may be in order.
One notable trend so far is that UofL seems to have settled on their preferred starting lineup. The fivesome of Cunningham/Perry/King/Sutton/Enoch has played nearly 4x as much as any other lineup:
This lineup has managed to perform pretty well, with an adjusted margin of +0.31 points per possession; UofL's team average is +0.19 for the season, so they are better than the average. They have posted a stunning 71% eFg%, and have collected a truly astounding 95% of the opponent's missed shots.
The Cards are struggling a bit to stick with strong bench lineups, however. The above 4 bench lineups are the only other lineups with more than 10 possessions played on the season, and results are mixed. 2 have played very well, with Perry/McMahon/Sutton/Nwora/Enoch and Fore/McMahon/King/Nwora/Williams posting strong adjusted margins, but the other two have posted negative adjusted margins, meaning they are worse than an average D-1 team. It's not unusual for a new coaching staff to experiment with lineups, and I'd expect UofL to settle in on some common bench lineups who can be relied upon. Over the next several games, it's important to look for patterns in which bench lineups consistently play well.
Backcourt and frontcourt rotation patterns are emerging, with Khwan Fore and Dwayne Sutton looking like keys
UofL has rotated pairings of their main 4 backcourt players: Christen Cunningham, Darius Perry, Khwan Fore, and Ryan McMahon:
The starting duo of Cunningham and Perry has naturally played more than any other backcourt pairing, with the bench duo of Fore and McMahon playing the second-most. In every possible pairing, including Khwan Fore increases the adjusted margin per possession. The sample sizes for each combo are still small, and the underlying stats don't show a clear pattern as to what is driving the adjusted margin, but UofL has been consistently better with Fore in. We see a similar story when looking at his individual impact compared to how UofL plays when anyone else is in his place:
In every stat where UofL has been worse with Fore in, their performance has only been slightly worse, while they have been significantly better in several categories with Fore in. UofL has defended well, snared offensive rebounds at a high rate, and forced turnovers with Fore in the game so far. Again, it's too early to know if this will continue, but it's something for smart fans to watch out for. Maybe Fore can be a spark plug off the bench against some of the tough upcoming opponents for UofL.
In the frontcout, UofL has played either Enoch or Williams at center, and has featured Sutton or Nwora at power forward. Occasionally they play Sutton and Nwora together at the forward spots in what passes for a bigger lineup. Here's how these various combos have performed:
Again, the starting combo (this time Enoch + Sutton) is the most common, although the trio of Enoch + Sutton + Nwora has also played a significant amount. The bench duo of Williams + Nwora has logged a fair amount of time together. Most lineups with Dwayne Sutton have faired better than those without, especially in offensive rebounding and drawing free throws. He has a history of performing well in these stats, ranking 33rd nationally in rate of drawn free throws and in the top 400 nationally in offensive rebounding as a 6'5" PF/C for UNC-Asheville in 2016. In this young season, Sutton is again in the top 400 in offensive rebounding and is 8th in free throw frequency. This kinetic energy from Sutton is clearly helping UofL win games, as seen in his individual player impact:
UofL is drawing free throws nearly twice as often with Sutton in this season! That is an eye-popping result, and is helping UofL live at the line in this young season.
Going forward, I'll revisit these stats to see if there are any changes, and to see if any other Cards stand out for their positive (or possibly, negative) impact on winning.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis