UK vs North Dakota: Identifying Trends and Filtering Out Garbage Time
The Cats get back on track in a blowout
After scuffling a bit through their first 2 games of the season, Kentucky put together a more complete performance in beating North Dakota by 38 points. The final margin presents a problem, as both teams likely recognized at some point that the game wasn't going to be competitive and no amount of effort was going to change that. I need to filter out everything that happened in garbage time, and focus on what happened when both teams were putting forth a reasonable effort. Luckily, we can do that by looking at some smart analysis others have done.
Ken Pomeroy posted an article on his website kenpom.com this September trying to identify garbage time. He looked for the point margin at various times in the game when the results after that showed no correlation to the results before. His analysis is here and indicates that there are a few points where this happens, and the team that's ahead basically stops trying to extend their lead. His analysis highlights that with a 25 points lead with 10 minutes left, or an 18 point lead with 5 minutes left, or a 15 point lead with 2 minutes left, the rest of the game is essentially meaningless. So, I've added a feature to my analysis this season that allows me to filter out any possessions where the margin and time remaining match one of these conditions. Below you'll find stats profiles for the North Dakota game, both including and excluding garbage time. First, with garbage time included:
Then, without garbage time:
UK's game against North Dakota consisted of 68 possessions, but 18 of them get excluded when we filter out garbage time. That's a huge percentage of the game played when effectively nothing was at stake! Comparing the two, we can see that UK shot a bit better and turned the ball over less when we include garbage time, and North Dakota shot a bit worse and turned the ball over less.
Going forward, my analysis will focus on UK's play excluding garbage time (in this article and others in the future). My goal is to find insights that can help predict what UK can (or should) do in the future, and it's not useful to include game time with zero predictive value. With that being said, let's look at some takeaway's from UK's win.
UK puts it together, but some issues linger
This was inarguably UK's first great performance of the season. UK's stats in this game were better than their averages from the first 2 games, except for their turnover rate; even that was only marginally worse (24% vs 23%). Per Table B, UK did an especially good job of limiting North Dakota's shot quality. North Dakota only took 11% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and hit none of them; further, the Hawks only had a 41% eFg% on shots from 11-20 seconds into the shot clock. That's a huge improvement for UK, who had issues on allowing easy shots against Duke and Southern Illinois. In the first 2 games, UK had some success when their big men challenged the initial outlet pass; in this game, UK took a different approach of basically never letting North Dakota get a defensive rebound. UK grabbed a stunning 65% of their own misses...it's pretty hard for the opponent to start a fast break when the only time they get the ball back is after it went through the basket.
However, a couple of statistical trends from the early season continued in this game.
First, UK is consistently having trouble against 5 opposing starters. It's not surprising that UK might be a bit worse against 5 starters than bench-heavier lineups, but the difference has been pretty stark throughout the early season. In this game, UK only outscored North Dakota's starters by 2 points in 17 possessions, but outscored all other North Dakota lineups by 28 points in 33 possessions. I refuse to believe that North Dakota's starters are competitive with UK, but their bench players are apparently hopeless. The issue seems to rest more with the lineups UK is using against 5 starters. For example, the lineup UK has used most often against 5 starters is Quickley/Herro/Johnson/Washington/Travis. They have started the last 2 games, and have played more than any other UK lineup this season. In 23 possessions, they have been outscored by 2 points.
This lineup also has played the most against 5 starters; they have 12 possessions in this situations and have been outscored by 1 point. But that means that in 11 possessions against other lineups they have been outscored by 1 point...so they haven't been any more effective against bench lineups. This group has not had much success together so far this season, and will need to get UK off to better starts if they are going to keep opening the game.
A couple of trends this season regarding player impacts have been consistent as well. EJ Montgomery was a standout in this game, as UK's raw and adjusted scoring margin per possession were much stronger when he played. UK's defense was also much improved with him in the game, as North Dakota shot much worse and turned the ball over much more. UK did foul a bit more with Montgomery in, but that's likely a byproduct of aggressive defense; as long as the defense gets results like this, you can live with a few fouls. This is consistent with Montgomery's impact for the full season:
EJ Montgomery has had a positive impact on UK in nearly every way, compared to the other big men on UK's roster. UK's big men have been a strength, as expected, but Montgomery's emergence in the early season as possibly the best big man in UK's rotation is surprising. These numbers may shift considerably as the season goes on, but it's worth watching to see if Montgomery gets more time and keeps up his positive play.
On the flip side, Keldon Johnson was expected to be the most impactful of UK's freshmen but has actually not done a lot to help UK's team performance. While his individual scoring has been impressive, his defense has been pretty poor, which shows up in his impact stats:
UK is allowing more points per possession with Johnson in the game. Opponents are shooting quite a bit better with him in, which makes up for the fact that opponents turn the ball over more. I've mentioned this before, but opponents are having a lot of success driving against Johnson. His defensive technique has been pretty poor, as he stands too high and is too willing to give up ground to ballhandlers. This has been a problem for UK's freshmen guards, and is showing up when Quickley/Herro/Johnson share the court together. When Johnson and Herro share the court, opponents shoot 61% on their 2 pointers, compared to 50% for the season average. These two need to improve their on ball defense to keep opponents from getting easy shots, or UK has to get more aggressive in helping on defense.
All told, UK is starting to put together some distinct trends this season:
UK is great at rebounding and drawing free throws
UK turns the ball over a bit too much, and is allowing opponents to shoot well from deep
The Wildcats haven't really found a lineup that clicks well so far; in each game UK has had a different lineup that has played the most. Given that UK's starting lineups haven't stood out, I'd expect to see more experimentation. Luckily, UK doesn't really hit the toughest part of their schedule for a few weeks...so there's time to figure it out. By the UNC game, I'd expect a more consistent rotation that's putting up solid results.
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