Kentucky Stats Profile vs Southern Illinois: Finally, the Cats begin to emerge....
UK Stats Profile vs Southern Illinois (Nov 9, 2018)
(Click on the link above to view my one-page stats profile)
It took a while, but UK fans finally began to see glimpses of the team they expected. UK was able to pull away comfortably from Southern Illinois over the final 10 minutes, despite trailing for most of the first 30 minutes. UK definitely looked like a different team on both offense and defense over the definitive final 10 minutes. A few key tweaks seemed to make the difference:
On offense, Kentucky had much better floor spacing late in the game. In the first half, numerous offensive sets would have no Wildcats outside the three point line, and more critically, allowed defenders to clog the lane. As UK ballhandlers tried to drive, they ended up in bad situations. UK had turnovers on 39% of their first half possessions, but lowered that to a more manageable 17% in the second half.
The improved spacing led to more open shots, and more frequent three pointers. 21% of UK's shots in the first half were threes, but that rose to 30% in the second half as UK spaced the floor better. This also opened up better 2 point opportunities, as UK's FG% on 2 pointers jumped from 47% in the first half to 52% in the second.
In the 2nd half, UK's defense showed better energy and discipline, especially on the ball. UK's freshmen show some bad habits when guarding the ball, especially Johnson, Herro, and Quickley. They have poor stances when guarding a ballhandler, and their movement is more frenetic than smooth. This leads to them getting beat frequently, and UK had been doing a poor job of rotating and helping. In the 2nd half, some of the defensive technique was better, but UK's bigs did a much better job of rotating to stop drives and limit open shots. Southern Illinois had an eFG% of 43% in the 2nd half, vs 48% in the 1st.
Now, let's take a look at my one page stats profile (link at the beginning of this article) to identify more key developments from this game.
Kentucky defended better in this game, but still struggles defending the fast break
Table B shows what types of shots UK and Southern Illinois took, and how well they hit them. Shots are group into the time it took to get them (1-10 seconds, 11-20 seconds, or 20+), and Putbacks (less than 3 seconds after an offensive rebound). Kentucky did a pretty solid job of keeping Southern Illinois shooting in check:
The Salukis got no putbacks, shot only 23% of their shots in the first 10 seconds, and had a 40% eFg% or worse on all shots after the first 10 seconds. The only concern for UK is that Southern Illinois put up an eFG% of 73% on their shots within the first 10 seconds. These are largely shots on fast breaks, or on the secondary break as a team takes advantage of a scrambled defense reacting to a fast break. In UK's opener, Duke got 43% of their shots in the first 10 seconds and had an eFG% of 75%. While UK limited the opportunities this time, they weren't much better at defending the opportunities that existed. This is something UK is going to have to address against better teams who can get a number of these opportunities.
Nick Richards looked like a completely different player
Subscribers to my newsletter know that Nick Richards has often struggled in his UK career to have a positive impact on the game. UK was worse last season when he was in the game than when he was on the bench, often to dramatic degrees. Against Duke, UK was -24 in his 28 possessions; they were -10 in 57 other possessions. They weren't great without him, but they were catastrophic with him in.
That wasn't the case in this game. UK was +14 in his 48 possessions, and -2 in the other 18. UK was better in nearly every key stat category with Richards in the game.
The only stats which were meaningfully worse with Richards in the game were:
Opponent FTA/FGA, which measures how often opponents shot free throws; UK still comfortably drew more free throws than opponents with Richards in
Turnover rate; a number of UK's early turnovers were on lob attempts to Richards, but it's unclear whether those were Richards' fault or not. It's hard to fault Richards if the guards were attempting risky passes in traffic,
Defensive rebound rate; this is odd, since Richards had a dominant rebounding game himself collecting 19 boards (10 defensive).
Last season, Richards had UK's best individual defensive rebound rate, but the team was worse at defensive rebounding when he played due to his poor technique. I went back and watched the game film to see if Richards was having the same issues. I saw nothing of the sort, actually, and I think the fact that UK had a worse defensive rebound rate with him in actually is too harsh. The offensive rebounds which Southern Illinois was credited with when Richards was in the game were not the type where they actually grabbed a live rebound, for the most part. Instead, they were credited with an offensive rebound when Richards blocked a shot, or grabbed a long rebound which was far away from where Richards had position. Richards did an excellent job of blocking out and got essentially every rebound in his area. This was a huge improvement for a player with tremendous upside for Kentucky.
UK's freshman guards have room to improve on defense
Through each of UK's first 2 games, UK's freshman guards (largely with the exception of Ashton Hagans) have been targeted on defense by ballhandlers. It's very typical for freshmen to struggle on defense, but it's important for a team like UK (who relies on freshmen every year) to get their players up to speed quickly. We can use Immanuel Quickley as an example of how this impacts UK's performance:
The two key areas where the impact of freshmen defense is felt the most are in the opponent turnover rate and defensive rebounding. When the ballhandler is able to get by their defender, the rest of UK's team is forced to rotate to help. This opens up open passing lanes and shots. But when the ballhandler is slowed down by the defender, other UK defenders are able to jump passing lanes or trap the ballhandler to force turnovers. Another effect of the rotations is that big men get taken out of defensive rebounding position, and are not able to box out as effectively. UK's defensive rebounding rate has been at its worst when 2 of the Quickley/Johnson/Herro combo are in the game at once. It's early, and these players will no doubt improve through the season, but sharp fans should watch to see if their defensive technique improves to shore up some of these issues.
A couple other quick notes:
1) The Montgomery/Washington combo played only 4 possessions together in this game after not playing together at all against Duke. I'd like to see what they can do as a combo, since Montgomery can space the floor a bit and Washington is a bruiser in the paint.
2) UK should be able to have a huge advantage in rebounding this season if Richards can keep up anything like his effort from this game. Travis and Washington are strong on the glass as well, meaning UK should limit second shots by opponents all year long.
Going forward, I won't necessarily do a write-up on every game, unless there is something interesting to watch for. Once UK has 6-7 games played, I'll switch between writing up on a specific game and writing up on longer term trends. As always share any feedback you have or any questions!
Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis.