UofL vs Nicholls State Stats Profile: Bailed out by the starters
UofL vs Nicholls State, Nov 8, 2018 Stats Profile
(Click on link above to view one page profile)
It wasn't exactly pretty, but the Cardinals pulled out a win in their season opener. With a new coach, many new players, and new roles for most returnees, there were bound to be some growing pains to open the season. Using the stats profile at the link above, let's take a deeper look into the stats and see what they tell us.
UofL's starters made most of the difference
UofL got out to a 7-2 start to open the game against Nicholls State's starters. In total, Nicholls' starters only played 6 possessions together, and UofL outscored them 9-2. As you can see in Table C on the stats profile, UofL had more success against 5 starters than against Nicholls' more bench-heavy lineups:
The margin of +7 in those 6 possessions was huge, given that UofL only won an 80 possession game by +13 points. It's also a nice departure for UofL, given that many games last year saw UofL struggle at the beginning of halves.
It wasn't just a case of Nicholls State doing a poor job of picking their starters; rather, UofL's starters were a very effective combination through the game. As Table D shows, the starters were the most played lineup in the game at 23 possessions. They also posted an adjusted plus/minus of +0.29 points per possession, compared to the +0.06 UofL posted for the entire game.
The 2nd most played lineup saw Khwan Fore and Jordan Nwora substituted in for Christen Cunningham and Vj King, to even more success. That group posted an adjusted +/ of +0.70 per possession, and outscored Nicholls by 8 point in 10 possessions. All told, UofL's 2 most played lineups were +17 in 33 possessions, with all other lineups -4 in 47 possessions. It's a good sign that UofL is giving the most time to the top lineups, but it's troubling that they are having such struggles when those key lineups sit.
Enoch and King led the way by rebounding and drawing fouls
Looking at individual players, Steven Enoch stood out in his official Cards debut. Enoch was particularly impressive when comparing how lineups performed when he played against how they played when any other player was in his place.
UofL was better in nearly every key stat with Enoch in the game, and especially outperformed in rebounding and drawing free throws. Enoch himself contributed heavily with 8 rebounds and 9 free throws attempted in 24 minutes. VJ King's contributions also stood out, as UofL collected 91% of Nicholls' misses when he was on the court; King himself grabbed 6 of them to tie for the team lead with Enoch and Nwora. King's rebounding is even more impressive given that he is more of a perimeter player than Enoch or Nwora. King also drew 12 free throws in 21 minutes to bolster the Cards' offense, although his 1-6 showing from the field led to the Cards having a lower eFg% with him in the game. Enoch and King's contributions in rebounding and free throws were a major factor in the strong performance put up by the starters; in fact, UofL's starting lineup rebounded every single miss by Nicholls State, and shot nearly 2.5 free throws for every field goal attempt. Given that UofL shot 76% on free throws and 48% on field goals, more free throws is an excellent way to sustain offense, and Enoch and King were a big part of that.
All told, it's just one game, and it doesn't tell us a ton about how UofL is going to play this year. However, there are a few takeaways to keep an eye on over the coming weeks:
1) UofL was very poor on the offensive glass: The Cards only gathered 19% of their own misses in this game, which would be a poor performance against anyone. Against an outmanned Nicholls State team, this is unacceptable. Luckily, Nicholls State was just as poor at offensive rebounding; in an odd twist, there were exactly zero field goal attempts which I classified as "putbacks" (shots within 3 seconds of an offensive rebound). UofL is mostly playing lineups with one true big man, and either Jordan Nwora or Dwayne Sutton at the 4, but the Cards actually were quite strong on the glass last season when Sutton played the 4. Under Chris Mack, Xavier was usually a bit above average in offensive rebounding, and had a couple years in the top 40 nationally, so he will likely get the Cards shaped up.
2) UofL drew a ton of free throws: Nicholls State was one of the worst teams in the nation last year at giving up free throws, and they were very foul prone against the Cards. Mack's Xavier teams ranked in the top 100 nationally in drawing free throws in 7 of his 9 years there, and in the top 53 in 6 of those years. An emphasis on aggressive drives will help keep the offense afloat even on off shooting nights for the Cards.
3) The Cards need to find some results with their lineup experimentation: Only 2 lineups played 10 possessions or more, and those were the difference as they outscored Nicholls by +17 points in 33 possessions. UofL needs to find a rotation during the early part of the season so they can avoid depending on a couple of key lineups to win the game, and trying to keep from digging too big of a hole in the rest of the game.
UofL is going to have some ups and downs as they settle into a new style of play and new roles. The best thing would be if the Cards can find a couple steady contributors they can rely on as they work out the kinks in the rotation. Given his solid debut, Steven Enoch is certainly a candidate; hopefully returnees like King, Nwora, Sutton, or Perry can also be a steadying force to shore up some of the early weaknesses and help the Cardinals realize their potential this season.
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