UK vs Duke Stats Profile: A little therapy for UK fans
UK Stats Profile vs Duke (Nov 6, 2018)
(Click on the link above to view my one-page stats profile)
Wow, that was really something. It has been a long time since UK fans watched a game in which their team struggled to remain competitive like in the opener against Duke. I'd usually advise fans to just put that game out of their mind and not dwell on it, but it's hard to do that for a season opener. Until UK plays another game, there's nothing else to go on. Instead of dwelling on the misery, however, we can try to put the loss in some perspective. To do that, we will turn to my one-page stats profile of UK's performance, accessible from the link above.
Duke got a staggering number of early shots, and they nearly all went in
The first place to look on the stats profile is Table B, which has an infographic showing the types of shots UK and Duke each took.
Looking at Duke's shot profile, we see that 43% of their field goal attempts came in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and they had an effective field goal percentage of 75%. This is ridiculously unsustainable. For context, Villanova had the best offense in college basketball, per KenPom.com; they took 20% of their field goals in the first 10 seconds, and had an eFG% of 62%. Against UK, Duke got more than twice as many early shots as the best offense in college basketball did last year, and made them at a dramatically higher rate. Unless you believe that Duke is going to blow away every offensive record, or that UK is one of the worst defensive teams of all time, it stands to reason that UK won't give up those results again this season. If Duke had merely taken 20% of their shots in the first 10 seconds, and posted an eFG% of only 62% on them (the same numbers as Villanova's offense last year), they would have scored 13 fewer points. That doesn't make the game close, but it's pretty clear that a huge portion of the final margin came from highly unsustainable results on early shots.
UK actually was able to be competitive at times
Believe it or not, there were some portions of the game where UK was actually able to stay competitive. Table C shows how UK performed against varying numbers of opposing starters.
Duke played nearly half the game with 3 starters in the game, and UK stayed within 3 points against these lineups! This was accomplished nearly entirely on defense, as these lineups for Duke put up an eFg% of 51%, compared to 62% for the full game. This is likely related to Duke's relative lack of depth, and the fact that their top 3 players scored 83 of their 118 points. Most UK lineups were able to hang with Duke once Duke had to turn to their bench. In fact, UK's starters were the worst performers against the 3 starter lineups for Duke, getting outscored by 4 points in only 10 possessions. This backs up the ESPn broadcast team's assertion that Duke is more top-heavy, but UK is deeper.
Table D lists the 5 most played lineups for UK against Duke, and their stats.
UK's starting lineup really struggled against Duke, plan and simple. It's incredibly rare to see a UK lineup outscored by a full point per possession, but that's what happened here. However, a few bench lineups were able to stay competitive or even outscore Duke. Notably, the 4th lineup listed here was +2 in 9 possessions; a small sample, but also a faint glimmer of hope. That lineup featured EJ Montgomery and Reid Travis in the frontcourt; in total that duo played 19 possessions together and outscored Duke by 2 points. Lineups with those two posted an eFG% of 66%, compared to 47% for the full game, and turned the ball over on 11% of possessions compared to 18% for the game. They also forced turnovers on 11% of Duke possessions, compared to just 4% for the full game.
UK still has a lot to figure out
There's a lot of time for UK to figure out rotations, strengths, and weaknesses. Strong performances in the next few games can quickly wash away any bad memories from this game. However, there are a few takeaways to watch over the next few matchups:
1) UK should find time for Montgomery and Washington together. This duo did not play together at all this game, but the Montgomery/Travis duo stood out. PJ Washington brings a pretty strong track record from last season, and should get a chance to play alongside Montgomery to see if it clicks.
2) UK still really struggles with Nick Richards on the court. Richards had a horrific on/off court impact last season, and UK was -24 in his 29 possessions in this game. Opponents continue to hit 2 pointers and get their own rebounds at very high rates with him in the game due to his difficulties with defensive positiong and rebounding technique.
3) Keldon Johnson may be a difference-maker on offense. UK posted a 51% eFg% with him in, and 35% with him out. His ability to get into the lane and finish was a bright spot on offense for UK. He is also able to be dynamic off the dribble without turning the ball over; UK turned it over on 14% of their possessions with him in and 29% with him out. UK also drew free throws more often with him in the game, thanks in part to his aggressive drives. Calipari's UK teams tend to be very good at drawing free throws, and Johnson seems to be a good fit with this style.
There's not a lot of positives to take away from a 34 point loss. However, the plain reality is that this UK team is much too good to think that this type of performance will be common this season; it's quite likely that this will be UK's worst game all year. The fact that Duke had a near-historic night shooting early shots, and that UK had clear segments of the game where they were competitive, makes it reasonable to think that the bitter taste of this defeat will be washed away by some sweet success to come.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis.