Thought on UofL's Duke loss, and quick 1st round NCAA preview
Free throw shooting "dooms" the Cards against Duke
UofL shot 15-26 (58%) on free throws against Duke. If they'd shot 20-26 (77%) they would have won the game. However, UofL averages 68.5% on the season...meaning that, even if they'd shot their average, they would have lost by a couple of points. Poor free throw shooting didn't help, but it wasn't the ONLY reason UofL lost.
I think free throw shooting is a bit misunderstood. Most fans judge a free throw percentage as good or bad; in this case, 58% was judged as bad. But I don't think enough fans appreciate the fact that shooting free throws (even at 58%) is an incredibly effective way to improve your offense. The math is pretty simple:
If you shoot 58% on free throws, you will average 0.58 points for every free throw attempt. So, earning two free throws will led to 1.16 points per possession on average.
Louisville's effective field goal percentage on the season is 51%. That adjusts for the value of three pointers, so the points per shot works out to 2 x eFG%, or 2 x 0.51 = 1.02.
So, even if UofL shoots free throws poorly, they still score at a higher rate than if they shoot at their season average.
Additionally, UofL scores 0 points on any possession with a turnover. UofL turns it over on about 16% of possessions...so on possessions where they don't draw free throws, they actually score closer to 0.90 points per possession.
So, even if UofL is shooting poorly on free throws, it's still incredibly beneficial to them to draw free throws. It's the easiest way to put up points! So, how does this tie back to the Duke game?
With 7:15 left, VJ King scored to put UofL up 69-65. Over the rest of the game, UofL was outscored 16-8. Here's a look at UofL's scoring, broken down into possessions with free throws and those without:
Possessions with free throws:
6 possessions
6-11 on free throws (55%)
6 total points (1.00 pts per poss)
Possessions without free throws:
8 possessions
1-7 on field goals (0-4 on 3's, 1-3 on 2's)
1 turnover
2 points (0.25 pts per poss)
Louisville had a 4 point lead, and kept up a solid scoring pace when they were able to draw free throws. However, any time they didn't draw a free throw, they did virtually nothing on offense. The issue against Duke wasn't missed free throws, so much as it was missed shots late in the game. UofL needed 7 points from those 8 offensive possessions to win, and they got 2. They would have had to hit every free throw down the stretch to win...it's asking a lot for a 68% free throw shooting team to suddenly turn into a 100% team.
The takeaway, to me, is that the Duke loss is nothing major to worry about. It's not a sign that UofL is slumping; rather, it's a sign that if UofL loses all ability to hit shots in the last 7 minutes against one of the top 10 teams in the country, they may lose. The next time UofL is in a close game down the stretch, it's more likely that they hit 3 or 4 shots out of 7 than they hit 1....and hitting 3 or 4 shots would have won this game. So, don't worry too much about that Duke loss, UofL fans...your team is just as good as you thought they were before it.
Jacksonville State probably has almost no chance
Any 15 seed has very slim odds to beat a 2 seed. However, I think Jacksonville State has about as bad of a matchup as they could dream up in this one. Let's look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Gamecocks:
Strengths
Opponents shoot 45% on 2 pointers (25th nationally)
Jax St shoots 36.7% on 3 pointers (93rd)
31.5% Offensive rebound rate (93rd)
Weaknesses
Turnover rate of 20.7% (308th nationally)
Low free throw rate (227th)
Opponent turnover rate of 16.8% (285th)
Basically, Jacksonville State does a decent job at defending the rim and rebounding, and can shoot abit from the outside. However, they turn it over a ton, and rarely draw fouls or force turnovers. That is going to be a huge problem against a UofL team that forces turnovers a ton, gets a ton of offensive rebounds themselves, and whose main weakness is fouling.
Jacksonville state's only win over a top-100 team in Ken Pomeroy's ratings came in their conference tournament against Belmont, who the Gamecocks had lost to twice this season. Their only other wins against top-200 teams were the season opener against Tulsa, and 2 wins over Tennessee State. The only top-50 teams they even played were TCU (lost by 19) and Maryland (lost by 26). So, this isn't exactly a team that has shown signs of life. The most realistic hope for the Gamecocks is that SF Erik Durham, who ranks 15th nationally in 3P%, gets open for a bunch of 3's. Given that he'll likely be guarded by UofL's Deng Adel, that seems unlikely. If this game stays within 20 points I'd be shocked.
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