Hawkins' Recent Impact, and a quick look at UK vs NKU
A brief note...I will be releasing scouting reports on UK's NCAA opponents as they advance, beginning with their 2nd round opponents (assuming a 1st round win). So, I may be sending 2 newsletters per week as long as UK is still alive in the tournament. Keep an eye out, as I'll be offering analysis you won't find anywhere else! Now to this week's newsletter....
Dominique Hawkins was making a difference for UK even before the SEC tournament
Dominique Hawkins' career as a UK Wildcat is nearing its end, but he apparently saved the best for last. He surprised most observers by playing an integral role in UK's SEC tournament championship last weekend, making the All-Tournament team despite coming off the bench each game. His play during the tournament was integral to UK winning; the Cats outscored their opponents by 34 points with him on the court but were outscored by 1 point when he sat. It would be easy to say that he finally found his role in the tournament, but that wouldn't be totally correct. In fact, UK has been performing consistently better with Hawkins on the court since the January 28th loss to Kansas. Let's take a look at UK splits with and without Hawkins since Jan 28th:
Since January 28th, UK has outscored opponents by much more (overall and per-possession) when Dominique Hawkins is on the court.
As the data above shows, UK has performed much better with Hawkins in the game since January 28th. With him in, they have outscored opponents by +93 points, while outscoring them by only +1 point when Hawkins sits. Both UK's offense and defense have improved on a per-possession basis. UK is shooting better, while opponents shoot worse with Hawkins in the game. UK turns the ball over less frequently and draws more fouls with him in the game, although UK does foul slightly more with him in the game.
Interestingly enough, the numbers looked quite different before Jan 28th:
Prior to January 28th, UK outscored opponents by a larger margin when Dominique Hawkins was not on the court.
Before January 28th, UK's performance dropped off with Hawkins in the game. They outscored opponents by fewer points, both on an absolute and per-possession basis. Their offense improved slightly with him out, and the defense improved dramatically. UK shot better with him out, and opponents shot a bit worse. UK was fouling more with Hawkins in the game, and his presence didn't really help UK cut down on turnovers or draw more fouls.
Much of the offensive improvement has come from better execution in the halfcourt. UK consistently gets out in transition less with Hawkins in the game, as he just isn't as good at that as Fox, Monk, or Briscoe. However, he turns the ball over infrequently, even as he has been more willing to shoot recently. Hawkins has increased his field goal attempts per 40 minutes from 6.5 prior to Jan 28th to 8.6 after. He has become more of a threat to shoot, and defenses no longer sag off him. As a result, UK's shooting has improved dramatically in non-transition opportunities with him in the court. Since January 28th, UK's eFG% on possessions lasting 10 or more seconds is 52% with Hawkins in the game up from 48% prior to Jan 28th. With him off the court, UK's eFG% has declined from 53% to 46% over the same time frame.
So, Hawkins has become more confident in his role in UK's halfcourt offense over the last month and a half. This has manifested itself in an improvement in UK's halfcourt efficiency with him in the game, while their efficiency has actually declined with him out (likely due to the step up in competition vs earlier in the season). This appears to have also boosted his defensive confidence, and is leading to better outcomes for UK with him in the game.
UK's first round NCAA matchup should pose little threat
Most 2 vs 15 matchups in the NCAA tournament turn out to be cakewalks for the higher seed, with very few upsets historically. I'm not going to spend much time analyzing this game, therefore. However, I did want to mention a few notes on what is indicated by NKU's advanced stats.
Northern Kentucky has a pretty typical 15 seed resume. They had a strong season in a weak conference, and their best win all season was probably a late-season home win over conference rival Valparaiso. Valparaiso ranks 105th in Ken Pomeroy's ratings, so NKU has no wins over any top-100 teams. In fact, NKU has only 6 wins all year against teams in KenPom's top 200. The Norse rank 148th in these ratings themselves, so they are roughly on par with Missouri or Arizona State.
The Norse do not rank in the top 50 in any major statistical category, although they are 41st nationally in frequency of 3 point attempts. Their biggest weaknesses are:
Forcing turnovers (271st nationally)
Getting shots blocked (344th)
Blocking shots (290th)
Free throw shooting (271st)
The Norse don't have much height, with no players listed above 6'7", and they clearly struggle to finish around the rim. NKU's shooting at the rim is 10 points worse than Kentucky's (58% vs 68%), which indicates that UK should be aggressive at driving to the basket and feel comfortable letting NKU do the same. UK';s guards should be able to pressure the ball without fear of letting their man drive to the hoop, since UK;s interior players should be able to challenge shots.
The best hope NKU has probably is to shoot a lot of threes; 4 of their 5 starters are capable shooters from outside and they take a fairly high volume. However, unless UK plays zone (which would be insane), I am not sure how the shooters will get open enough to shoot. Against West Virgina's aggressive pressure defense, NKU shot threes much less frequently than usual. If UK has their guards pressure the Norse, I think we'll see the same thing. NKU's only prayer is to take more threes than twos...they did so against Illinois early this year and actually led at the half before fading late.
The Norse may be able to keep the game competitive if they bomb away and UK's guards shy away from pressing...but I really don't see any way this game stays within 20 points.
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