Which lineup is UK's best?
What lineups has Kentucky played the most?
Louisville has 5 lineups who have have played 75 or more possessions together this season:
Fox/Monk/Briscoe/Gabriel/Adebayo (405 poss)
Fox/Monk/Briscoe/Willis/Adebayo (323 poss)
Hawkins/Monk/Briscoe/Willis/Adeayo (116 poss)
Fox/Monk/Hawkins/Willis/Adebayo (100 poss)
Fox/Monk/Hawkins/Gabriel/Adebayo (85 poss)
Let's assume that UK is going to rely on these 5 lineups in the most important games this postseason. How can I evaluate these 5 to determine which is UK's best lineup?
Looking at the stats, and quality of opponents
I'm going to rate these lineups across 9 different stats:
Adjusted +/- per possession
Effective FG%
Opponent effective FG%
Turnover rate
Opponent turnover rate
Offensive Rebound %
Defensive Rebound %
Foul rate
Opponent foul rate
I'll rank the lineups 1-5, with 1 being the best and 5 being the worst, for each of the 9 stats. I'll also rank them 1-5 on how many possessions they've played, to give credit to lineups who have sustained their performance across a larger sample.
I'll add up the rank for each lineups across all 10 measures to get a total; a lower total is better.
I'll do this 3 separate times:
Full season stats
Stats vs KenPom top 50
Stats vs 4 or 5 opponent starters
This will give me a view of which lineups have done well against tougher competition, or against opponents' stronger lineups. I'll weight their performance as follows:
25% for full season ranking
50% for ranking vs KenPom top 50
25% for ranking vs 4/5 starters
So, the final output will be a ranking of these lineups 1-5, based on their performance across the most relevant stats and weighted for performance against stronger competition.
So, what do the results say?
Is it possible that UK's best lineup doesn't include De'Aaron Fox?
When I tallied up the stats, here's how they ranked:
1) Hawkins/Monk/Briscoe/Willis/Adebayo - 27.5 pts
2) Fox/Monk/Briscoe/Gabriel/Adebayo - 28 pts
3) Fox/Monk/Hawkins/Adebayo/Gabriel - 31.25 pts
4) Fox/Monk/Briscoe/Willis/Adebayo - 31.5 pts
5) Fox/Monk/Hawkins/Willis/Adebayo - 31.75 pts
So, 2 lineups are clearly above the others: A lineup without De'Aaron Fox,
and UK's most commonly played lineup. The top-rated lineup above hasn't been outscored in a game since the Jan 24th loss to Tennessee, and the second-rated lineup was only outscored 3 times in SEC play. They do have different strengths and weaknesses, however.
Hawkins/Monk/Briscoe/Willis/Adebayo have stood out for their ability to outshoot opponents, crash the offensive glass, draw fouls, and avoid committing fouls themselves. They are relatively weak at defensive rebounding and are prone to turnovers. They've played their best against tougher competition, as their stats are very strong against top-50 teams and 4 or 5 opponent starters. They are also playing their best right now, as they lead all UK lineups over the last 7 games in +/- (+17) despite only playing the 6th most possessions. While this group doesn't have a huge amount of time together this season, they have been playing very well lately and should get consistent time together in the postseason.
Fox/Monk/Briscoe/Gabriel/Adebayo has been UK's most common lineup this season, and have stood out for their ability to win the turnover differential and gather defensive rebounds. They have not shot the ball particularly well and haven't drawn fouls very often, so this group is more notable for their defense than offense. This lineup's best games came when UK opened SEC play, as they absolutely dominated Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt to the tune of +48 points despite playing less than 25% of the game time. This has been UK's most played lineup in SEC play, and has been the best or second-best lineup. This group is absolutely deserving of starting the game and playing major minutes together.
Frankly, I was pretty shocked at the idea that UK's best lineup might not be built around Fox/Monk/Adebayo. However, UK has been able to hold things together in games Fox has missed this year. UK's win over Florida without Fox was one of their most impressive wins of the year, and Hawkins and Willis came up big in that game. Fox is a huge part of what makes UK great, but the Cats are clearly finding a way to not be quite as dependent on his skills.
Compared to UofL, UK doesn't quite have as big of a spread between their best and worst lineups. This means that they don't have as much to gain by tweaking their rotation. However, UK has a pretty solid 7 man rotation on which they can rely, and prioritizing the two lineups above can help UK improve their chances of a deep run this postseason.
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