Quick Notes on UK's Postseason Surge
UK has reached another level this postseason
Heading into the Sweet 16, Kentucky is undefeated in the postseason. It's not just a matter of getting lucky, or playing overmatched teams; the Wildcats have legitimately stepped up their play. Over 5 games, UK has outscored opponents by +66 points in 328 possessions. In the postseason, their adjusted margin per possession is +0.35; the Wildcats only reached that level in 4 games during the regular season (Illinois-Chicago, Louisville, at Arkansas, and Missouri).
A big piece has been Hamidou Diallo discovering his shooting stroke. Diallo is shooting 65% on 2's and 50% on 3's in postseason play, compared to 46% and 34% in the regular season. Interestingly enough, he is doing so despite taking fewer shots. During the regular season he took 23% of UK's shots when he was in the game; that has dropped to 17% since postseason play began. Given that there are 5 players on the floor at any time, an average player should be taking 20% of his team's shots; Diallo is willingly taking a smaller role in the offense, but has been very efficient.
The biggest contribution, however, has been from a frontcourt pairing that UK has focused on more than ever before.
PJ Washington and Wenyen Gabriel have been carrying the Cats
I mentioned earlier that UK has outscored opponents by +66 points in 328 possessions during the postseason. The frontcourt pairing of Washington & Gabriel is +57 in 128 possessions; that means UK is only +9 in the other 200 possessions!
With Jarred Vanderbilt out due to injury, this duo has played 39% of UK's minutes together in the postseason. While this may seem like a natural adjustment in the frontcourt rotation after an injury, it was far from an automatic adjustment. Prior to Vanderbilt's debut on Jan 16, Gabriel & Washington only played together about 17% of the time. This dropped to 13% after Vanderbilt debuted. This duo is playing much more than ever before, and putting up even better results:
Early in the season, this pairing shot well, but turned the ball over a lot. Opponents didn't shoot very well against them, and turned the ball over and fouled a fair amount. This duo suffered a bit of a shooting slump and were foul-prone during conference play, although they did continue to limit opponent shooting. During the postseason, they've reached another level. When the Gabriel & Washington frontcourt plays together, UK is shooting the lights out, avoiding turnovers, and drawing a ton of fouls. Opponents are struggling to hit shots, and UK is forcing turnovers but avoiding fouls. The only complaint could be their lack of rebounding...but when you're outscoring opponents by 59 points per 100 possessions you can't really complain.
Since Jarred Vanderbilt has missed the entire postseason, and UK is playing so well, should he rejoin the rotation when he's healthy? Could it be the case that UK is better without him? Simply put, no. They are playing well without him, but the evidence shows that he wasn't the problem at all. Take a look at how UK's various frontcourt pairings played since Vanderbilt debuted on January 16:
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UK's 3 best combinations, by adjusted margin per possession, were Gabriel/Vanderbilt, Gabriel/Washington, and Washington/Vanderbilt. Since UK has been unable to play 2 of these 3 combos due to Vanderbilt's injury, they've simply given a huge chunk of time to the remaining one...and it's paid off. If Vanderbilt is able to return, UK should keep giving plenty of time to Washington & Gabriel, and work in Vanderbilt alongside them. While these pairings have trade-offs between offense and defense, as the stats above show, they are consistently UK's best at rebounding and outscoring opponents.
UK has made one more adjustment to their frontcourt rotation that has paid dividends. While they have certainly given more time to their best frontcourt pairing, they've also given much less time to the worst pairings. Looking at the above data, you may notice that each of the three worst frontcourt combos includes Nick Richards. With Jarred Vanderbilt out in the postseason, you'd expect that the remaining big men would all play more. I've already established that the Gabriel/Washington duo is playing more. Sacha Killeya-Jones is playing 40% of the time, up from 30% of the time during the regular season. However, Nick Richards has seen his playing time shrink to 16% of the possessions, down from 36% during the season. It's not just playing good lineups more; UK is also playing bad lineups less.
These adjustments have helped UK sustain a level of play they simply were not reaching often during the regular season. 3 of UK's 7 best games (ranked by adjusted margin per possessions) have come in this 5 game stretch. The worst game was the NCAA opener against Davidson, with a +0.22 adjusted margin per possession; that matches UK's average for the full season. When a team sustains a 5 game postseason stretch where they play above their season average in every game, it's clear they are peaking at the right time. If they keep playing this way, UK will be a tough out for anyone this postseason.
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