Looking ahead for some good NCAA matchups for Kentucky
First, what makes a good matchup for the Wildcats?
Before we get ahead of ourselves, I'll set some basic ground rules for how I'd determine what makes a good matchup for UK. I'm going to discuss teams in terms of their performance in the "Four Factors". For more info on these, click on the glossary link in the email header:
Shooting (Effective FG%, and Effective FG% allowed)
Rebounding (offensive and defensive rebound %)
Turnovers (turnover %, and forced turnover %)
Free throws (Free throws per field goal attempt, taken and allowed)
For each of these 8 total stats (offensive and defensive for each), I looked at the season average for each of UK's opponents, and how well those predicted how UK performed in each game. Some patterns emerged; for example, many of UK's best performances came against teams who were poor defensive rebounding teams, like Alabama or Louisville. Conversely, UK didn't play as well against several teams who avoided turnovers, like UCLA or Florida (I wrote about this recently).
For the statistically-inclined, I used regression analysis to understand the impact of each of these 8 stats on UK's adjusted plus/minus per possession. As usual, I used the team's ratings in these stats per KenPom.com. I also adjusted to home/road/neutral site games. So, what did I find?
The opponents' defensive rebounding skill is the biggest factor for UK
When I ran the analysis, by far the most significant stat in predicting UK's performance is the defensive rebounding ability of the opponent. On average, UK would be expected to be about 6 points better per 100 possessions for every 3% decline in an opponent's defensive rebound percentage. This isn't just about UK getting offensive rebounds; after all, getting UK getting 3% more of their own misses is never going to create 6 points. It's more about the type of team that would be worse at defensive rebounding...these teams would tend to be smaller, so UK should also be able to defend them better, and block more shots, and do a lot of other things. So, this should be interpreted as UK is more likely to have success against the type of teams who aren't very good at defensive rebounding.
Additionally, UK has had a lot of success against teams that allow a lot of free throws, which shouldn't be a surprise. Drawing free throws is a strength for UK, and a big part of their gameplan. This gets magnified against more foul-prone teams. Further, UK's extreme success in drawing fouls and free throws puts other teams in foul trouble, compromising the opponents' ability to play their preferred lineups.
Oddly enough, UK also tends to play better against teams who have a strong eFG% for the season. My hypothesis is that these teams tend to rely on good shooting to power their offense, and may not be as good at other offensive factors such as offensive rebounding or turnovers. The strength of Kentucky's defense has been shooting defense, especially on threes. If UK can take away this strength, opponents who rely on shooting may not have anything else to turn to.
Which NCAA tournament teams are likely to be good matchups for UK?
Based on the regression results and the season averages for potential NCAA tournament teams, we can try to predict which teams might fit the profile of a good matchup for UK. These would be teams that:
Are poor at rebounding opponent misses
Allow a high rate of free throws
Rely on good shooting to power their offense
There aren't many teams that fit this profile perfectly who UK might run into in the NCAA tournament, but there are a few. Looking at ESPN's latest Bracketology, there are some teams seeded 1, 2, 3, or 4 who may present good matchups for UK. Here are those teams, along with their projected Bracketology seed (as of Sunday morning), and their KenPom ranks in some of the relevant categories mentioned above:
Kansas (#1 seed, 297th in def reb%, 6th in eFG% but below average at drawing FTs and getting offensive rebounds
Cincinnati (#2 seed, 176th in def reb%)
Auburn (#3 seed, 151st in def reb% and 282nd in FTA/FGA allowed)
Tennessee (#3 seed, 286th in def reb% and 270th in FTA/FGA allowed)
Texas Tech (#4 seed, 150th in def reb % and 269th in FTA/FGA allowed)
West Virginia (#4 seed, 238th in def reb% and 338th in FTA/FGA allowed)
When the NCAA tournament brackets are revealed, UK fans should be hoping to see some of these teams in their bracket. Unfortunately, UK is extremely unlikely to see Auburn or Tennessee before the Elite Eight due to how the selection committee keeps conference opponents separate. Regardless, Wildcat fans should be hoping for a couple of these opponents in their bracket for the best shot at an extended tournament run this year.
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