Some Reasons for Optimism for UofL Fans
Reasons for optimism, despite a gut-wrenching loss
There's no two ways to put it; UofL's loss to Virginia was maybe the most stunning and deflating end to a basketball game I've ever seen. But, as dispiriting as the 5-0 Virginina run to end the game was, UofL's performance overall was really quite impressive.
Simply put, UofL went toe-to-toe with the #1 team in the country and hung with them every step. Because Virginia is such a strong team, even a 1-point loss grades out on a per-possession basis as one of UofL's top 10 performances of the season. Ranking UofL's top 10 games by adjusted scoring margin per possession, we get:
Southern Illinois, Nov 21, +0.61
Pittsburgh, Feb 11, +0.43
Bryant, Dec 11, +0.40
Georgia Tech, Feb 8, +0.39
Wake Forest, Jan 27, +0.33
Pittsburgh, Jan 2, +0.32
Grand Canyon, Dec 23, +0.32
Virginia, Mar 1, +0.30
Virginia Tech, Feb 24, +0.28
Virginia Tech, Jan 13, +0.27
A couple of things to note about this list. All of the top 7 games are against teams ranked 86th or worse by KenPom.com, so UofL had most success this year against weaker teams...even those this metric adjusts for the opponent strength. Second, it seems like Virginia Tech is a favorable matchup for UofL. Third, the two best performances UofL has had against NCAA tournament-caliber teams have come in their last 2 games against Virginia and Virginia Tech. While it's a really small sample, it's important to look deeper and see if there are any consistent factors that could continue into postseason play.
Smaller UofL lineups have thrived with extended time in the last 2 games
Against Virginia Tech and Virginia, UofL has spent 83% of the time playing with only 1 big man (usually either Spalding or Mahmoud). That is a big increase from the rest of the season, where UofL has played only 43% of the time with 1 big man.
For the entire season, UofL has had more success when playing with just 1 big man. Uofl's adjusted margin per possessions with 1 big man has been +0.28, compared to just +0.11 with 2 big men. This is very similar to the margins in the last 2 games against Virginia Tech and Virginia, where lineups with 1 big man have an adjusted margin of +0.31 and lineups with 2 big men are +0.19. The shift from giving 43% of the time to your best lineups to giving 83% of the time to them has improved UofL's overall adjusted margin from +0.19 for the season to +0.29 in these last 2 games.
So, the improved performance over the last 2 games doesn't seem to be fluky. Rather, it's the natural result of just giving more time to the lineups that have outperformed over the full season. This seems like something UofL can continue to do and benefit from!
The biggest argument against playing 1 big man so much is that, theoretically, it should hurt UofL's rebounding. But, that doesn't seem to actually be happening. UofL has played 9 games against teams who are in top 50 nationally in offensive rebound percentage (Seton Hall, Memphis, Albany, Kentucky, Florida St (2x), Syracuse, North Carolina, Duke). In those games, UofL has rebounded just as well with 1 big man as with 2:
With 1 big man, UofL rebounded 27% of their own misses and 64% of the opponent's
With 2 big men, UofL rebounded 27% of their own misses and 62% of the opponents
In those 9 games, lineups with 1 big had an adjusted margin of +0.09 points per possessions, and +0.01 points per possessions with 2 bigs. Lineups with 1 big man have been much more successful at winning the turnover battle, which has led to better overall performance.
It remains to be seen if UofL will commit to playing these lineups going forward. UofL has only played lineups with 1 big 36% of the time against strong rebounding teams, even those these lineups have been more successful. The NC State game will be a good indicator of whether the coaching staff is willing to commit, as the Wolfpack are 25th nationally in offensive rebounding. If UofL is willing to play smaller lineups for 75% or more of that game, it's a good sign that the coaching staff recognizes their most successful lineups. That gives UofL a shot to be really dangerous in the postseason, and spring an upset or two.
A sneak preview of what's to come next season
Assuming nobody else leaves the team, UofL will lose only Quentin Snider and Anas Mahmoud off this season's roster. While losing 2 players seems like a relatively small impact, the truth is that UofL has very little experience this season playing without either of these two. UofL has only played 192 possessions with both players out of the game, of 9% of the total season. That's a very small sample size to predict what next season might have in store. During that time, UofL has not been very good; their adjusted margin is +0.01 points per possessions, indicating they have been an average D-1 team. However, there are some bright spots to focus on.
The 5 most common lineups without Snider or Mahmoud account for 82 possessions, and have outscored opponents by 39 points. The issue has been all of the random lineups without Snider or Mahmoud that have played very little time; 28 other lineups have played 110 possessions total, and have been outscored by 45 points. UofL tends to give a huge chunk of time to a few key lineups; for example, 5 lineups have played 90 or more possessions this season, and no other lineup has more than 52. So, we can expect that only a few lineups without Snider or Mahmoud will see significant time next year, and those lineups have been very good this year! For example, the trio of Darius Perry/Dwayne Sutton/Jordan Nwora has been a very strong group this year. When they have played without Snider and Mahmoud, this group of newcomers is +13 in 45 possessions.
Quentin Snider and Anas Mahmoud have been valuable contributors to UofL basketball over the last 4 years. However, the Cardinals have been able to put together some lineups without these two that have had success this year. While there will be some growing pains next year, UofL fans should feel confident that the holdovers can put together a very strong season next year.
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