UK, Turnovers, and Potential Bad Matchups
UK has played much better lately...and it seems to be due to better shooting
UK has been turnover-prone, but it may not be all their fault
This season, Kentucky ranks 222nd nationally in frequency of turnovers; they commit one on just over 19% of their possessions. That's the 3rd worst rate UK has posted since Calipari took over, behind only 2010 and 2013. In 5 of Calipari's 9 years, UK has excelled at taking care of the ball, ranking in the top 50 in 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2017.
I don't think Kentucky is as careless of a team as this stat implies, however. I believe this is inflated by the fact that Kentucky has played a number of teams who are very good at forcing turnovers, and they have had a lot of success in forcing the Wildcats into turnovers. If you'll bear with me, I'd like to try to prove my case.
UK has played 8 games against teams in the top 75 nationally in rate of forcing turnovers: West Virginia, South Carolina, Auburn, Tennessee (2x), East Tennessee St., Florida, and Fort Wayne. In 7 of those 8 games, UK committed turnovers on 20% or more of their possessions; in the 8th (against Auburn), they were at 19.4%. UK's turnover rate in these games was 23%; that would be in the bottom 10 nationally.
In UK's other 21 games, they committed turnovers on 20% of their possessions only 3 times. UK's turnover rate in these 21 games was 17%; that would rank about 100th nationally. Not great, but nowhere near as disastrous as UK's season averages.
UK has played more of these turnover-hungry teams than most major conference teams. Of teams in the KenPom.com top 25, only TCU (11) and Kansas (9) have played more games against top 75 turnover forcing teams than Kentucky's 8. Given Kentucky's extreme splits when playing these types of opponents, I think that it's fair to say that Kentucky has been unusually vulnerable in these games, but has been much less turnover prone against typical opponents.
Offensive rebounding is how UK offsets turnovers
In Kentucky's 8 games so far against teams elite at forcing turnovers, they have gone just 3-5, with wins against West Virginia, East Tennessee St., and Fort Wayne. In each of these games, UK had a very strong game offensive rebounding. Getting these offensive rebounds helps compensate for the loss of possessions on turnovers, so UK still gets enough scoring chances to win. This was also true in the 2 point loss against Florida, where UK came up just short.
From this, we can draw a conclusion about what may constitute a bad matchup for Kentucky: teams who are in the top 75 nationally in forcing turnovers, but who also do a good job of limiting offensive rebounds. Kentucky has been extraordinarily turnover-prone against these teams, and an opponent who can force turnovers and limit offensive rebounds will limit UK's shot opportunities. UK is simply not a good enough shooting team to overcome a deficit in shot volume.
Several potential NCAA tournament teams are among the elite at forcing turnovers: West Virginia, Rhode Island, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, and Virginia are all among the top 75 nationally. However, only Virginia is in the top 100 nationally in limiting offensive rebounds as well, and only Rhode Island and Texas Tech are even in the top 150. So, while Virginia will be a matchup nightmare for Kentucky, the positive sign is that the Wildcats will have opportunities to make up for turnovers by grabbing offensive rebounds. Given UK's proclivity to get offensive boards since Jarred Vanderbilt returned from injury, UK may be able to counter this weakness more effectively than you'd think.
UK needs a little help forcing turnovers
As bad as UK can be sometimes taking care of the ball, they may be even worse at forcing turnovers. UK ranks 256th in the rate at which they force opponent turnovers. Again, UK has played a tough schedule, with 11 games so far against teams in the top 75 in lowest turnover rates, and 7 in the top 50. UK has managed to go 4-3 in these 7 games against the top 50, with wins over West Virginia, Fort Wayne, Arkansas, and LSU, and losses to Florida, Kansas, and UCLA.
The scary thing is that the X factor in these games has been shooting, which has been very inconsistent for UK this year. In all 4 wins against turnover-averse teams, UK had an effective FG% above 52% (UK's season average is 51%). In all 3 losses, UK's effective FG% was under 47%. In these games, only UCLA committed turnovers at a rate above their season average; every other opponent was actually less turnover-prone against UK than their (already excellent) season averages!
To contrast this, UK has played 6 games against teams in the bottom 75 nationally in turnover rate. UK is 5-1 in these games, with wins over Alabama, Harvard, Monmouth, Illinois Chicago, and a split against Missouri. The loss against Missouri happened to be UK's worst shooting game of the year by a significant margin, with a 33% eFG%. So, if UK is playing a turnover-prone team, they have been able to win unless they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with their jumper.
To me, this makes turnover-averse teams a very bad matchup for Kentucky. Not only is Kentucky seemingly allergic to forcing turnovers against them, it takes an above average shooting day for UK to win. Shooting has perhaps been UK's least consistent skill this season. This postseason, Kentucky should hope to avoid teams who commit few turnovers, and have a strong eFG% defense. 4 teams that fall into this category are Virginia, Saint Mary's, Purdue, and Gonzaga. It's not that UK can't beat these teams, but without forcing turnovers UK is going to have to hope for a hot shooting night against teams that don't allow many.
To recap:
Virginia is a nightmare matchup for UK
UK needs offensive boards to counter teams who can force turnovers
Teams who avoid committing turnovers are dangerous, because UK needs to shoot well to win
When Selection Sunday rolls around in a couple weeks, make sure you refer back to this article to see how good or bad you should feel about the teams in UK's section of the bracket.
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