UK has a Big 3, but what are the backup plans?
UK's performance this year has largely been dictated by their 3 standout freshmen: De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and Bam Adebayo. UK's performance has been pretty consistent with these three in the game, but they've been more volatile when one of these three has to leave the game. Looking at the data I've collected, I lay out below some strategies that can be effective when one of these players is out of the game.
A clear 7 man rotation has emerged
When looking at the lineup combinations this year for UK, a pretty clear 7-man rotation emerges, consisting of:
Fox
Monk
Adebayo
Isaiah Briscoe
Wenyen Gabriel
Derek Willis
these players have all played at least 45% of the minutes for UK, and nobody else has played more than 25%. Among this group, however, there is another clear trend: Fox, Monk, and Adebayo need to play together as much as possible. It;s less important if Brisoce or Hawkins is the 3rd guard, or Willis/Gabriel is the power forward, as you can see:
Adjusted +/- per possession, Fox/Monk/Adebayo with:
Briscoe + Willis: +0.38
Briscoe + Gabriel: +0.37
Hawkins + Willis: +0.41
Hawkins + Gabriel: +0.34
That's a very tight spread. Given that each lineup might play 6-10 possessions per game, the difference between the best and the worst is less than 1 pt per game.
Overall, UK has an adjusted +/- per possessions of +0.36 with the Big 3 in the game together, and +0.26 the rest of the time. It gets worse when looking at UK's results when playing against 4 or 5 starters: UK is +0.36 with the Big 3 together, and +0.10 the rest of the time. A drop of 0.26 points per possession can meaningfully impact a game!
Obviously, UK needs to be prepared for the potential for foul trouble in the postseason, as well as being able to give players some rest. However, if UK mismanages the rest for some of their Big 3, and gives up +0.26 pts/poss for 8 possessions (about 4 min), they give up 2 points in the game. That could be the difference between a close win and a close loss, or it could give an opponent a shot to win instead of UK having a more comfortable 4 or 5 point margin.
So, how can UK better manage stretches where one of the Big 3 is on the bench? I have looked through the data and have some ideas!
Without Fox, focus on halfcourt offense
When De'Aaron Fox leaves the game, UK goes from taking 40% of their shots off of transition opportunities to only 31%. In order to compensate, UK has to focus on executing better in halfcourt offense. UK's best hope is to minimize the chances of turnovers, and get offensive rebounds where possible. 2 guards specifically check these boxes: Dominique Hawkins and Mychal Mulder.
These two have the lowest turnover rates of any UK guards, and the highest offensive rebounds percentages. They don't offer the playmaking of Fox, but nobody does, and Isaiah Briscoe usually takes that mantle with Fox out. Mulder also offers outside shooting, which is a huge plus for UK's halfcourt offense, and gives better spacing for Adebayo to operate inside.
When Fox is out, but Monk and Adebayo are in, UK's adjusted +/- per possession is:
+0.48 with Mychal Mulder in
+0.37 with Dominique Hawkins in
+0.07 with neither Hawkins or Mulder
UK's efforts to go big when Fox sits (usually by playing Willis at SF) have been pretty disastrous. Instead, UK should prioritize Mychal Mulder as a substitute for Fox, with Dominique Hawkins as a useful option as well...and do not try to go big!
When Monk sits, try to piece together a replacement
Malik Monk's best skills are his ability to score in transition, and his outside shooting. When he leaves the game, UK may be able to replace these qualities, but not with a single player. Instead, UK should focus on making sure that when Monk sits, Isaiah Briscoe stays in the game to capitalize on transition opportunities with De'Aaron Fox. When Monk sits, but Fox and Briscoe stay in, UK actually gets slightly more of their shots in transition (44% vs 41% with Monk).
Additionally, UK should keep Derek Willis in the game when Monk sits. Willis can stretch the defense, and with Monk out, UK's adjusted +/- per possessions is:
+0.47 with Willis in
+0.25 with Willis out
All told, UK's adjusted +/- with Monk out is +0.60 with Briscoe and Willis in together. That's a great way to sustain (or build) leads when UK's scoring dynamo needs a rest.
Rest Adebayo when opponents go to the bench
UK's depth at center this year has not been particularly effective. Bam Adebayo has carried the load, but when he leaves, UK takes a hit. Here are the splits:
With Adebayo, UK is +0.36 per possession, with a 55% eFG and opponents' eFG of 47%
Without Adebayo, UK is +0.20 per possessions, with a 51% eFG and opponents eFG of 49%
Adebayo's primary backup is Isaac Humphries. When he is in the game against starters, UK struggles, and he has trouble making shots. With Humphries in against 4/5 starters, UK is -0.01 per possession, and Humphries' eFG is 41%. When Humphries is in against 3 or fewer starters, UK is +0.39 per possession, and Humphries' eFG is 52%.
UK is heavily dependent on the performances of Fox, Monk, and Adebayo to carry them. When they need rest, my recommendation is:
Sub in Mulder, or Hawkins, for Fox
Have Briscoe & Willis in the game when Monk sits
Rest Adebayo against backups and let Humphries do some damage
If UK follows this strategy, they should avoid being hurt too badly when resting their key players.
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