UofL's Odd Loss to Wake Forest, and the Deng Adel vs VJ King debate!
Another really weird game for UofL...is this a trend?
In my last UofL newsletter, I wrote about why the Virginia Tech game was an extremely weird one. In that game, UofL had their best offensive game of the year but their worst defensive game of the year. The good outweighed the bad, so they picked up a win, but it was extremely odd in that Virginia Tech simply shot the ball extremely well, without doing the things that usually lead you to shoot the ball well (lots of transition points, force turnovers, etc.).
We've got a strong runner-up for weirdest UofL game now with the loss on Wednesday to Wake Forest. While it is surprising enough that the Cardinals lost, the way in which they lost is even more surprising. This game marked the first time all year that an opponent performed better against UofL than their season average in:
Shooting (effective FG%)
Turnovers
Drawing free throws
While UofL has had a lot of issues this season with allowing free throws, they've made up for that by limiting opponent shooting and forcing turnovers. In fact, only Baylor, Virginia Tech, and Boston College had managed to post a better eFG% and turnover rate against UofL than their season average...and none of those teams also drew more free throws against UofL than their usual rate.
I'm inclined to accept the Wake Forest game as an outlier, and not an indicator that UofL is in trouble. I have consistently said that UofL's propensity to give up free throws puts a lot of pressure on the rest of their defense, and that played out in this game. However, UofL has been able to consistently limit opponent shooting and force turnovers. Just because they had one bad game doesn't mean they've lost that ability. In fact, UofL has had 9 games this season where they forced opponents into worse eFG%, turnover rate, and free throw rate than their season average, including 3 in conference (at Syracuse, NC State, Clemson). I think the Cards are closer to the team that's been excellent 9 times, than the team that has been atrocious once.
Deng Adel vs VJ King
When UofL started VJ King against Syracuse last Saturday, I was mildly surprised because I consider Deng Adel to be one of the 2 or 3 most impactful players on the team. I became even more surprised when I saw people tweeting that the lineup of Snider/Mitchell/King/Spalding/Mahmoud may be UofL's best lineup. So, I decided to look at the data and watch some game tape to see exactly why anyone was clamoring for King to replace Adel.
Because Adel's benching occurred after the UNC game, I went back to watch that game to see if Adel had a bad enough game to deserve a benching, or if King was so impactful that he deserved to start. I saw a few things, none of which point to King needing to replace Adel:
Adel jumpstarts UofL's transition game, and is one of their best creators and finishers in transition
Adel is an excellent weakside defensive rebounder
Adel is an effective secondary ballhandler in the halfcourt, particularly using ballscreens
Adel is a below average jump shooter, and is not very effective as a designated outside shooter
Adel picked up 4 fouls, but only 1 was in the course of defending; 1 was a poor offensive foul call and 2 were when he was rebounding
King is a better shooter than Adel, but a worse rebounder
King doesn't have a huge impact for UofL when he's not taking/making shots
I did notice that Adel got pulled quickly in the second half for King against UNC, but it didn't appear he did anything obviously wrong...my guess is that he wasn't running the right offensive play.
Adel does a lot of "little things" well that aren't noticed as easily, whereas King is better at the single most noticeable thing: hitting shots. My guess on the benching vs Syracuse was that Pitino believes Adel is capable of more offensively, and Adel has made some mental mistakes. Adel played more minutes that King against Syracuse, despite not starting, and Adel played 40 minutes against Wake Forest to King's 9...so Adel is pretty clearly preferred to King.
That begs the question, should he be? If some fans and media think King is a better fit as a starter than Adel, is that really the case? Rather than look at individual games, let's take a look at what the data says about UofL's play when Adel is in versus when King is in:
The data above is for UofL's full season. The green boxes indicate where UofL is better with one player versus the other. As you can see, in nearly every statistic, UofL has been better this season with Deng Adel in the game than with VJ King. The only stat in King's favor is that UofL has fouled less with him in, and the 3-point shooting and opponent turnover rate are even. With Adel in, UofL has been playing more often against 4 or 5 opposing starters, so the degree of difficulty is higher when Adel is in the game.
This doesn't tell the full story, however. After all, we're ignoring who else is in the game. If VJ King is playing more often with backups than Adel, we don't want to punish him for their poor performance. So, we can look at how UofL has performed when Adel and King each play alongside UofL's starting backcourt of Quentin Snider and Donovan Mitchell:
When we adjust for their teammates, the difference between Adel and King starts to narrow a bit and some patterns emerge. UofL shoots better with King in the game, but rebounds and defends better with Adel in the game. Turnovers (offensive and defensive) are roughly equal, and UofL's adjusted +/- per possession is a bit better with Adel than with King. This fits what I saw on the game tape, that King helps the offense, while Adel helps defense and rebounding more. Again, Adel's minutes have been a bit more likely to come against 4 or 5 starters, so there's an added degree of difficulty in his performance as well.
It's not like UofL falls apart with VJ King in the game instead of Adel, but there's virtually no evidence that UofL's best lineup involves substituting VJ King for Deng Adel. King does bring some offensive skill, but Adel contributes in many more ways (and isn't a bad offensive player himself). So, the next time you're watching a UofL game and someone tells you that VJ King should be playing over Deng Adel, have them watch the little ways Adel is helping UofL succeed. If they aren't convinced, then just consider yourself lucky that they aren't coaching the team.
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