What's Causing UK's Road Woes?
On the road, UK is committing fouls and not forcing turnovers
UK has played 6 true road games this season, and is 3-3 in those games. None of the wins have been by double digits, and two of the wins have come against LSU and Vanderbilt, who are two of the worst teams in the SEC. On a positive note, UK's road win over West Virginia was one of their strongest wins of the season...so this team has the ability to perform well on the road. They just haven't gotten the results they want this year...what's going wrong for them on the road?
Most of Kentucky's team stats in their 6 road games are very similar to their season averages. For example, UK has an effective field goal percentage of 51% for the season; in road games, they are at 48%, but they were at 50% before the disastrous Missouri game. UK has turned the ball over on 19% of possessions this season; in road games, the figure is 20%. Opponents have posted a 47% eFG% against UK this season; in road games, it's 48%. The two areas where UK has really struggled in road games are committing fouls and forcing turnovers. For the full season, UK is fouling on 26% of possessions; in road games, that climbs to 32%. UK has forced opponents into turnovers on 18% of possessions this season, but only 15% in road games.
When you don't force turnovers, you give teams more chances to score. When you foul more often, you give them chances to score in the most efficient way possible. Combining these two has resulted in UK allowing about 9 points more per 100 possessions in road games; this equates to about 6 points in a typical 70-possessions college basketball game. That's a big difference, and it doesn't even take into account UK's offensive challenges.
6 road games is a small sample, and it wouldn't be surprising to see these results if UK was playing teams that had success drawing fouls or avoiding turnovers...but that's actually not the case. While 4 of UK's 5 worst games in committing fouls have come on the road, only South Carolina ranks better than 81st nationally in the rate at which they get to the foul line. While both West Virginia and LSU are in the top 50 nationally in avoiding turnovers, none of UK's other road opponents are in the top 100.
So, UK is clearly having some issues with fouling too much and not drawing turnovers in their road games. That's a problem! Typically, fouling is a sign of aggressive defense, which results in turnovers. But UK is getting too much of the bad results and not enough of the good ones. So, is UK just playing a lot of lineups that have bad tendencies? Let's take a deeper look at the lineup data.
The biggest issues on the road come from their most used lineup
In road games, the lineup UK has played the most often is:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Hamidou Diallo
Kevin Knox
PJ Washington
Nick Richards
This group has not played well, to put it mildly. They have been outscored by 31 points in 47 possessions. Adjusting for the strength of opponents, this results in an adjusted scoring margin of -0.53 points per possession. If UK played at that level for a full game, they would lose by about 35 points. That's a disastrous result for the lineup UK has relied on the most during these road games. This lineup has been much better in home/neutral games, putting up and adjusted rating of +0.28 points per possession. They have been much worse in almost every statistical area in road games:
eFG%: 47% in road games; 63% in all others
Turnover rate: 26% on the road, 15% in all others
Foul rate: 34% on the road, 23% in all others
Opponent eFG%: 67% in road games, 46% in all others
Opponent turnover rate: 11% on the road, 23% in all others
The only area where this lineup isn't much worse on the road is rebounding. Unfortunately, that's because they have been terrible everywhere:
Offensive rebound rate of 18% on the road, 14% in all others (UK averages 35% for the season)
Defensive rebound rate of 56% on the road, 61% in all others (UK averages 70% for the season)
When you see something like this, you should ask 2 questions:
1) Is this lineup just struggling because they play more against starters lately? This lineup has been starting games, so they could just be getting tougher opponents. Unfortunately, that's not the case; while this group has played about 75% of their time against 4 or 5 starters, their adjusted rating is actually worse in their time playing against 3 or fewer starters.
2) Do other UK lineups see these same home/road splits? I did start this article by pointing out UK's struggles as a team, so maybe other lineups are struggling just as much on the road. However, that's not what is happening. Besides this specific lineup, UK has outscored opponents in road games by +20 points in 374 possessions. Adjusting for opponent strength, this equates to an adjusted rating of +0.21 points per possession. In home and neutral site games, all other UK lineups have an adjusted rating of...+0.22 points per possession. These other lineups do foul a little more on the road, but hold opponents to a bit worse eFG%; adjusting for opponent strength, they are playing at nearly the same level on the road and at home.
UK's best alternative may be a lineup they haven't played...yet
Simply put, UK's struggles in road games are directly related to the lineup that has played more than any other. Luckily, the Wildcats have some options if they want to change up their rotation and play this lineup less.
First, they could play Sacha Killeya-Jones more in Nick Richards place, possibly even by starting him. This lineup has not seen as many issues on the road, with an adjusted rating of +0.06, compared to +0.17 at home. They haven't had as many issues committing fouls, and have been able to force turnovers at a higher rate on the road than at home.
Second, they could play Wenyen Gabriel in Richards' place. However, this lineup has had similar issues with fouling in road games, and has struggled to force turnovers. They wouldn't address any of UK's issues, and their adjusted rating in road games is only +0.01, compared to +0.35 at home.
A third option would be benching Diallo for Quade Green. However, these lineups have a sky-high 38% foul rate in road games, and an adjusted rating of -0.03. That's not going to help much.
My favorite option, however, would be starting Jarred Vanderbilt in place of Nick Richards. Vanderbilt at times seems to inject energy into UK's play, which could help them get off to better starts. While the combo of SGA/Diallo/Knox/Washington/Vanderbilt hasn't yet played together, the Knox/Washington/Vanderbilt frontcourt has played 22 possessions together, and have some decent results. They have outscored opponents by +3 points, good for a +0.25 adjusted rating. Their foul rate has been 27%, in line with UK season averages, and they have forced turnovers at a strong 23% clip. This group has rebounded 50% of UK's misses, which helps to offset shooting problems, and they have drawn a ton of fouls. This lineup could address some of UK's problems in road games, while also having the ability to get over shooting slumps. I think UK should strongly consider moving Jarred Vanderbilt into the starting lineup, and playing him regular minutes. I believe their road results would improve, giving the team some momentum for a postseason run.
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