Who are UofL's "dyanmic duos"?
Basketball teammates can have a huge impact on each other
A college basketball team is like one big chemistry experiment. The coach mixes together a number of players, all of whom have distinct skills, athletic ability, motivations, and emotions. No individual player exists in a vacuum; their performance is inextricably linked to the players who do and don't play alongside them. However, that's almost never discussed when evaluating player and team performances, mostly because it isn't actively tracked. However, my play-by-play data keeps track of how different players perform with and without various teammates...so I wanted to share some of the insights I've seen in UofL's data with you, loyal subscriber!
In particular, I want to focus on two pairings that have a strong positive impact on each other, and on UofL's play: Quentin Snider & Ryan McMahon, and Anas Mahmoud & Darius Perry.
Snider & McMahon: a symphony of strengths
The backcourt combination of Quentin Snider and Ryan McMahon has been a huge bright spot for UofL this season. With those two in the game, UofL has been noticeably better in several key metrics:
61% 2pt Fg% (up from 51% for the season)
40% 3pt Fg% (up from 34% for the season)
14% turnover rate (down from 17% for the season)
Net rating of +0.36 pts/possession (up from +0.19 for the season)
UofL's defense is virtually identical to their season averages when this backcourt plays together, with just a slight dip in opponent turnovers. This duo has helped UofL shoot the lights out, while avoiding turnovers, and that recipe has led UofL to be dominant in the minutes that these two have shared. The improvement in UofL's team stats is directly attributable to these two players, as their own stats improve drastically when they share the court:
Quentin Snider
With McMahon:
63% eFG% (65% on 2's, 40% on 3's)
Assists on 29% of made baskets
Commits turnovers on 1.6% of possessions
Without McMahon:
49% eFG% (45% on 2's, 36% on 3's)
Assists on 20% of made baskets
Commits turnovers on 3.0% of possessions
Ryan McMahon
With Snider:
61% eFG% (52% on 2's, 40% on 3's)
90% of shots are three pointers
Without Snider:
50% eFG% (56% on 2's, 32% on 3's)
71% of shots are three pointers
Snider is a much better shooter (especially on 2's), gets more assists, and turns the ball over much less with McMahon in the game. With Snider in the game, McMahon shoots much better, and shoots threes more often. Looking at the film, it's not hard to spot this. I watched film of the two sharing the court against Miami on Jan 24, and some trends are noticeable. First, Snider and McMahon do a great job of spotting up and spacing the floor, and their teammates find them for open threes. Second, Snider is particularly effective on driving to the side of the floor with McMahon spotting up. Because defenders usually don't help off of McMahon, Snider's path through the lane is less cluttered; this leads to easier layups or passes, and fewer turnovers. Lastly, Snider and McMahon do a good job of spotting up a pass away from each other. As the defense rotates to take away a three pointer from one of them, they can easily kick it to the other for an open shot.
Snider and McMahon's abilities to complement each other's strengths, while not suffering much on defense, has been a difference maker for UofL in several games lately:
Against Boston College, UofL was +11 when Snider and McMahon played; they were -3 otherwise
Against Miami, UofL was +5 when Snider and McMahon played, they were -8 otherwise
UofL's offense gets a shot in the arm with this pairing, and they should continue to use them together for a sizeable portion of their games.
Mahmoud and Perry: feed the big man and he'll rebound for you
I doubt any UofL fan would name the pairing of Anas Mahmoud and Darius Perry as one of the more important duos on the team. However, the data indicates that this is a surprisingly effective combo. When these two share the court, UofL improves noticeably in some key metrics:
55% eFG% (compared to 51% for the season)
Commit turnovers on 14% of possessions (down from 17% for the season)
Defensive rebound rate of 70% (up from 68% for the season)
Offensive rebound rate of 34% (up from 31% for the season)
UofL shoots a bit better, turns the ball over less, and rebounds better when Mahmoud and Perry share the court. The individual stats for each player bear this out as well...
Anas Mahmoud
With Perry:
57% eFG%
1.6% turnover rate
17% defensive rebound rate
8% offensive rebound rate
Takes 18% of UofL's shots
Without Perry:
55% eFG%
3.0% turnover rate
10% defensive rebound rate
8% offensive rebound rate
Takes 12% of UofL's shots
Darius Perry
With Mahmoud:
40% eFG%
3.5% turnover rate
Without Mahmoud:
38% eFG%
4.6% turnover rate
Mahmoud shoots a bit better, turns it over less, rebounds more, and shoots more often with Perry in the game. It appears that Mahmoud's defensive rebounding effort is linked to how involved he is on offense; there's a consistent pattern of Mahmoud rebounding better with teammates who let him shoot more often. That's not an uncommon trait for big men, who can sometimes go several possessions without shooting the ball; it's important for UofL to consider with Mahmoud.
Perry shoots a bit better and turns the ball over less with Mahmoud in the game. Watching film, it's clear that UofL relies less on Perry as a primary ballhandler than they do Quentin Snider. Given that Perry is a freshman, UofL's coaches seem to use Mahmoud to initiate the offense; they also seem to use Mahmoud more in the pick and roll with Perry in the game. This naturally leads to more involvement for Mahmoud, which appears to positively impact his rebounding effort on defense.
Against Wake Forest, UofL was +22 when Mahmoud and Perry shared the court, and -3 in the rest of the game. The ball movement was crisp, and UofL's defensive pressure was very effective when these two shared the court. UofL also owned the defensive boards, getting 85% of Wake's misses, and only committed 1 turnover in nearly 17 minutes of game time. Oddly enough, this duo doesn't get consistent time together; the last time they shared the court for a significant time was against Virginia Tech on January 13th. UofL also rebounded incredibly well and avoided turnovers when Mahmoud and Perry shared the court in that game.
When Mahmoud and Perry share the court, UofL clearly finds a nice offensive flow. Mahmoud's increased role on offense keeps him engaged on defense as well. UofL should look to pair these two up more consistently, as it's yielded strong results despite being used infrequently.
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