Addressing UK's recent struggles with some rotation tweaks
UK has flat-out struggled in the last 6 games
Since January 6th, UK is 3-3. This isn't a case of some fluke losses along with blowout wins; UK has scored exactly the same amount of points in those 6 games as their opponents. Many of UK's team stats have been noticeably worse during this stretch than their season-long averages:
UK is fouling more often (29% of possessions, compared to 25% for season)
UK's rebounding has worsened (29% OffReb rate and 69% DefReb rate, compared to 34%/70% for season)
UK is forcing turnovers less frequently (14% of opponent possessions, compared to 17% for season)
UK's already-thin rotation has also been shortened due to illness and injury to several players. I think it would be fair to say that the mood among UK fans is pretty dispirited, as they've seen the goodwill of the blowout win over UofL dissolve as the Wildcats fell out of the top 25 rankings.
However, I think there is some reason to believe that UK can improve dramatically, with some small tweaks to the rotation. I'd recommend two changes: reduce Nick Richards' minutes, and play more big lineups.
Nick Richards: When player stats and team stats disagree
If you look at Nick Richards' stats by themselves, you would believe him to be a fairly dominant interior force. Per KenPom.com, Richards ranks 82nd nationally in offensive rebound rate, 156th in defensive rebound rate, and 70th in block rate. He is the highest rated UK player in every one of these stats. Only Karl-Anthony Towns and Demarcus Cousins were as good across all three categories under Calipari, and Richards has a higher shooting percentage than either of those players. His stats profile is that of a potential lottery pick, no question.
When you look at UK's team performance when Richards plays, you get the exact opposite picture. All season long, UK has been worse at offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, and defending two point shots with Richards in the game. Over the last 6 games, it's been particularly egregious. Just look at UK's team stats with Richards in and out since January 6th:
With Richards In:
23% offensive rebound rate
65% defensive rebound rate'
Opponents shooting 59% on two pointers
UK has been outscored by 36 points in 182 possessions
-0.05 net rating per possession
With Richards Out:
34% offensive rebound rate
72% defensive rebound rate
Opponents shooting 45% on two pointers
UK has outscored opponents by 36 points in 238 possessions
+0.28 net rating per possession
Simply put, no other UK player has anywhere near these kind of negative on/off court splits. With Richards on the court, UK is struggling to rebound and defend the paint, and getting massively outscored. With Richards out of the game, UK has comfortably outscored opponents, even with patchwork lineups. These splits are not driven by Richards only playing against starters, either; 48% of possessions with him in have been against 4 or 5 starters, compared to 42% with him out of the game.
When you watch the game film, a lot of things leap out. First, Richards has very poor footwork and technique when trying to defend in the paint. It's especially notable when he is closing out on a player who receives a pass in the paint; Richards will frequently slide by the player, or leap past them, leaving their path to the rim open. Richards also will help aggressively on drives, leaving open passing lanes for easy buckets. He also has poor timing on rebounds, often going after rebounds out of his area; this ends up with him out of position to defend a putback, or occasionally knocking the ball away from a teammate. The numbers are stark, and the evidence is right there on film.
Plainly, Kentucky needs to limit Richards' minutes. There's not much reason for him to be starting, but there's even less reason for him to be getting more than 10 or so minutes, if that. Sacha Killeya-Jones has proven to be capable on the inside, and UK has PJ Washington and Jarred Vanderbilt to take minutes in the middle. If Tai Wynyard gets healthy, he can fill in too. None of these players have had anywhere near the negative impact of Richards.
Richards has 4 games in the last month where he has played more than 17 minutes:
26 minutes vs UCLA
24 minutes vs Tennessee
23 minutes at South Carolina
20 minutes vs Florida
All of these games were losses. In all but the Tennessee games, UK outscored their opponent when Richards sat. Even against Tennessee, UK was outscored by more with Richards in the game than with him out. The evidence has been mounting all season, and it's clear...Nick Richards is simply not helping UK win games right now.
Benching a player of Richards' pedigree is likely to cause internal issues in the team, so it's not as simple as I make it out to be. However, I'm confident the coaching staff has been aware of this issue and has been trying to get him to improve. It isn't working, and it's really hurting the team's results. There are better options at this point, and UK should use them.
Big lineups are paying big dividends
Quade Green's back injury was a stroke of particularly bad luck for UK, as they only had 3 healthy scholarship guards even with Green. Without Green, UK has been forced into one of three choices: play SGA and Diallo heavy minutes, play walk-ons in the backcourt, or play bigger lineups. They've had the most success with the third option, playing bigger lineups.
In their last 6 games, UK has played 420 total possessions; 12 different lineups have played at least 10 of these possessions. The two lineups that have been the most successful on a per-possession basis are:
SGA/Diallo/Gabriel/Washington/Killeya-Jones (+22 in 27 possessions, +0.93 net rating per posssession)
SGA/Knox/Gabriel/Washington/Killeya-Jones (+8 in 13 possessions, +0.74 net rating per possession)
The Gabriel/Washington/Killeya-Jones frontline combo has been amazing. You'd expect a bigger lineup to be very good at rebounding and defending two pointers, and they have been. The same goes for the Vanderbilt/Washington/Killeya-Jones frontcourt, albeit in limited time. With 3 of the Gabriel/Vanderbilt/Washgton/Killeya-Jones trio manning the frontcourt spots, UK's offensive rebounding rate jumps from 29% to 36%, and their defensive rebounding rate goes from 69% to 78%. Opponents are shooting just 31% on two pointers against these lineups, and turning the ball over on 20% of their possessions.
These lineups likely don't have enough shooting to be used for the majority of the game, but UK has gotten some great production out of them in limited time. UK should continue to mix these lineups in heavily, especially to give their guards a rest and put Knox in the backcourt. Given UK's superior frontcourt depth, especially with Jarred Vanderbilt now healthy, these lineups should be getting 8-10 minutes together every game.
While the last several games have not been terribly successful for the Wildcats overall, there have been glimmers of hope. If UK makes some of the rotation tweaks I've outlined here, I expect them to bounce back nicely. Over the next few games, watch for Nick Richards' minutes, as well as the minutes given to bigger UK lineups...if the latter outnumber the former, look for UK's results to improve.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis.