What's UK's best backcourt pairing?
First, some housekeeping...I'll be on vacation next week, so my next edition won't be out until the week of Jan 15th.
UK may only have 3 guards, but they are all pretty good
Given that the Wildcats had no scholarship guards who had played a college game, it would have been fair to expect some ups and downs early this season. This was complicated by the injury to Jemarl Baker, leaving the Cats with only 3 scholarship guards: Quade Green, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Hamidou Diallo. Each of these guards has had their standout moments this season, turning a question mark into a steadying force for the team. Of the 3 combinations of these guards, however, which one is the best?
Green and Diallo have started the most, and started the best
The duo of Quade Green and Hamidou Diallo has been the preferred starting backcourt for UK, and they performed well for most of the start to the season. With that duo in the backcourt, UK has shot a blistering 44% from three point range on the season. With that duo in the game, UK had some of their best stretches of play over their first 10 games, including 4 games where UK outscored opponents by double digits when Diallo and Green shared the court:
However, you'll notice that this duo struggled in the recent three game stretch against UCLA, Louisville, and Georgia. They were outscored by 33 points in 43 possessions, a disastrous rate. These numbers aren't affected by what other UK lineups are doing, either; this is simply the margin by which UK outscored opponents when Green and Diallo shared the court (without Gilgeous-Alexander).
Lately, the Diallo/SGA pairing has had more success
The pairing of Diallo and Gilgeous-Alexander doesn't shoot as well without Green; their strength is on defense. When Diallo and SGA are in the backcourt, opponents turn the ball over at a much higher rate, and shoot a much worse percentage from the field. Most of UK's offensive stats are right at their season average with this duo, although UK does rebound a bit better with this backcourt duo. While this duo didn't have the same success early on as Diallo and Green, they have picked up the slack in recent games to some degree:
While the Diallo & Green pairing struggled against UCLA, Louisville, and Georgia, the Diallo & SGA duo largely made up for it. As the Cats have started to feature more pressure, this duo has thrived, and SGA has become an offensive weapon. The results were not as favorable in the LSU game, although Diallo was hampered by the flu in that game.
Green and SGA have not been as successful together as with Diallo
Lineups with Green and Gilgeous-Alexander have generally not had as much success as when one of them shares the court with Diallo. Opponents have torched the Wildcats on 2 pointers, shooting 54% (vs 48% for the season), and committed turnovers on only 13% of possessions (vs 19%). UK's turnover rate climbs to 22% (from 19%) with these two sharing the backcourt. This duo is clearly the 3rd best option of the 3 pairing, and their results in most games have borne that out:
They've been outscored in 6 of the 14 games in which they've played, and only posted positive scoring margins in 3 of the 7 games in which they played at least 20 possessions; Diallo & Green have done so 7 of 8 games, and Diallo & SGA have done so 8 of 11 games. This duo did save UK late against LSU with Diallo ailing, but with a healthy Diallo it doesn't seem the game would have needed saving.
UK does have one more combination that has seen some time lately
Despite a lack of guard depth, UK has started playing some 3 guard lineups recently. This speaks volumes about how far the young guards have come, that they have taken time away from the loaded frontcourt. While the 3 guard lineup of Green, SGA, & Diallo has not featured in every game, they have put up some promising results when given time:
The trio of guards has played 10 or more possessions in 3 games, and has outscored Monmouth, Louisville, and Georgia by a combined 36 points in 57 possessions. UK hasn't shot particularly well with these three together (46% eFG%, and 21% from 3), or rebounded very well (21% OReb rate and 59% DReb rate, vs 35% and 70% for the season), but they've made their mark in other important ways. UK's turnover rate has been cut in half with these three sharing the court (10% vs 19% for the season), and opponents have been harassed into more turnovers (22% vs 19% for the season). Most notably, they have drawn fouls much more often (42% of possessions, vs 27% for the season). It's unlikely this group will continue to shoot so poorly or rebound so poorly, but the strengths make a lot of sense, and will remain strengths even with some regression to the mean.
The Diallo & SGA lineup seems to be rounding into form as UK's best backcourt duo, but playing all three guards together seems to be UK's secret weapon. As long as they can do so in reasonable doses, this group should help UK extend leads and maybe steal some close games in an SEC that is looking like it will be very tough. Against a Tennessee team that has had success forcing turnovers, UK will need to have Diallo healthy...the Green/SGA combo has had turnover issues. If Diallo is healthy, a steady dose (15-20 possessions) of the three-guard lineup should make the difference.
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