Lineup Changes Can Pay Off for UofL
Before I get into this newsletter, some housekeeping....I will be on vacation all next week, so my next newsletter will be in 2 weeks.
UofL needs to play smaller lineups, immediately
14 games into the season, I'm quite confident in saying that Louisville is simply better off playing smaller lineups. Louisville has consistently outscored opponents at a much higher rate when playing one of their big men (Anas Mahmoud, Ray Spalding, or Malik Williams). I called this out in both my UK/UofL preview, as well as my game recap, and I've seen similar thoughts expressed elsewhere. I wanted to dive a bit deeper in this edition of my newsletter.
The Pittsburgh game showed the way
UofL made a starting lineup change against Pittsburgh, going with a fivesome of Snider/King/Adel/Williams/Spalding. However, that was not the biggest rotation change; UofL played a season high 40 possessions with either Spalding or Mahmoud as the lone big man. 32 of these featured Mahmoud with 4 guards/wings around him; UofL outscored Pittsburgh by 28 points in those 32 possessions.Against UK, the Cards played exactly zero possessions with Mahmoud as the lone big man.
Mahmoud and Spalding, who had been starting together, played only 1 possession together against Pittsburgh. I had written about the struggles of the Cards with those two in the game, and the Pittsburgh game showed what UofL could be when committing to smaller lineups. So, if UofL is going to play smaller lineups, is Mahmoud the right big man to feature? Should it be Spalding, or Williams? Let's compare how UofL plays with each big man flying solo.
With Mahmoud only, UofL defends well
When Mahmoud is the only big man, UofL suffocates opponents 2 point and 3 point shooting. While opponents shoot 42% on 2s and 30% on 3s for the season against UofL, they drop to 39% and 24% when Mahmoud is the lone big man. Opponents also turn the ball over a bit more, and UofL fouls a bit less. UofL's offense is largely unchanged, with a few more free throws drawn but also a few more turnovers. UofL also gets more offensive rebounds, but fewer defensive rebounds. Overall, UofL has posted an adjusted scoring margin of +0.24 pts/possession with Mahmoud as the lone big man.
With Spalding only, UofL plays aggressive D
When Spalding is the only big man, the opponents' turnover rate jumps from 20% to 27%, although opponents also draw free throws at a much higher rate. Opponents shoot better from the field, however, likely because the aggressive defense yields some easy shot attempts when not forcing a turnover. The Cards shoot a bit better from 3 point range, although they do turn the ball over slightly more, and they draw more free throws. UofL's defensive rebounding improves with Spalding flying solo, but the offensive rebounding drops off. Overall, UofL has posted an adjusted scoring margin of +0.29 pts/possession with Spalding as the lone big man.
In limited minutes, Williams has produced strong results
Malik Williams has played only about a fourth as much time as the lone big man as Spalding or Mahmoud, but UofL has impressed during this time. UofL has an adjusted scoring margin of +0.51 pts/possession with Williams as the lone big man. However, there are a lot of indicators that this is not sustainable long-term. First, he's played a small amount of time as the only big man. Also, only about 25% of his time has been against 4 or 5 opponent starters; by comparison, lineups with only Mahmoud or Spalding play about half of their minutes against 4 or 5 starters. With Williams as the lone big man, UofL has been on fire from three, shooting 42%; opponents are shooting 18% from three. UofL's turnover rate is also half of their season average when Williams flies solo. However, it seems unlikely that Williams is helping the three point shooting, three point defense, or turnovers, since those are absolutely not the responsibility of a big man.
Mahmoud seems like the best option as a lone big man
If I had to pick one big man to play most of the minutes anchoring smaller lineups, I'd pick Mahmoud. Even though lineups with Spalding alone have a slightly higher adjusted scoring margin, the difference is really small and not significant. The strengths of lineups with Mahmoud (field goal defense, forcing turnovers) are in sync with Mahmoud's strengths, and the weaknesses (little offensive improvement, slight turnover increase) have little to do with UofL's weaknesses this year. The strengths when Spalding is the lone big man (forcing turnovers, hitting threes, drawing free throws) don't really align with Spalding's skills, and the weaknesses (allowing easier shots, allowing free throws) have really hurt UofL in some big games. The performance with Williams alone seems like a mirage.
Likewise, lineups with Mahmoud seem to match up well against the next couple opponents for UofL;
Clemson's strengths are shooting (especially 2 pointers), defensive rebounding, limiting free throws, and defending two point shooting; weighted for minutes played, Clemson is 78th nationally in height (UofL is 9th)
Florida State's strengths are shooting (especially 2 pointers), limiting free throws, and defending two point and three point shooting; while Florida State is 29th in adjusted heigh, that's because of big guards; their frontcourt has 2 6'8" players and one 7'0" bench play
UofL needs lineups that limit opponent shooting, can shoot well, and draw free throws. As mentioned above, lineups with Mahmoud as the sole big man limit opponent shooting. These lineups shoot right at UofL's season averages as well, and draw free throws a bit more than the team average. UofL should be able to compete well when Mahmoud is the lone big man. If given enough time, these lineups may provide the difference in a Cardinal upset or two.
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