UK vs UofL 2017 Preview #3 - Breaking Down the Matchup
This is part 2 of my 3 part preview of the 2017 UK vs UofL game:
Part 1: The Season So Far
Part 2: Strengths and Weaknesses
Part 3 (Friday): How Each Team Can Win, and my prediction
The 2017 Dream Game: how do the teams match up, and how can each team win?
For this 3rd part of my UK/UofL preview, I'm going to look at how the teams match up according to the stats. I'll look at what each team needs to do to win the game, and make a prediction. Instead of looking at each team, I'll look at the offense/defense matchups when each team has the ball.
UK on offense/UofL on defense
UK offense
UK's offensive effectiveness has been nearly entirely about their shooting. When UK shoots well, they score well; when they don't, they aren't able to make up for it in other ways. The Wildcats have pretty consistently committed turnovers, usually at a rate even higher than opponents normally allow, so they give away their share of possessions. On the flipside, the Wildcats have proven elite at getting offensive rebounds, with only Harvard and Vermont (both top 25 nationally in def reb rate) showing any signs of slowing down the Cats there. UK also has been successful at drawing free throws, although teams that are less foul-prone have been able to limit the Cats trips to the line somewhat.
UofL defense
As in years past, Louisville has firmly established their identity as a standout defensive team this season. They rank 15th nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom.com, their 8th straight year in the top 15. Louisville has excelled this season by making it difficult for opponents to make shots, both from 3 point and 2 point range. Of UofL's 12 opponents, only St. Francis managed a better eFg% than their season average. The Cardinals have pretty consistently made it difficult for opponents to shoot; even Purdue, 11th nationally in eFg%, shot poorly against UofL. Louisville also generally limits opponents free throws to a bit under their normal season average, although the effect isn't as dramatic as UofL's shooting defense. Teams that draw more free throws in general have done fairly well at getting to the line against UofL, such as Purdue, Indiana, and George Mason.
In contrast, Louisville's ability to force turnovers and get defensive rebounds is highly predicated on the opponent. Louisville has picked on weaker, turnover-prone opponents, but were unable to force Purdue and Seton Hall into mistakes. Similarly, UofL rebounded well against George Mason, Southern Illinois, and Bryant, but strong offensive rebounding teams like Memphis, Albany, and Indiana were able to get plenty of second chances.
How UK can win on offense
For UK on offense, there are some givens. They are probably going to get a ton of offensive rebounds against UofL, since they get them against everyone. The Wildcats are probably going to turn the ball over a fair amount, because they do that against everyone. It really comes down to whether the Cats can shoot a solid percentage from the field, and get to the free throw line regularly. The most reliable combination that generates a strong eFG% with plenty of fouls drawn is the backcourt of Hamidou Diallo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. With those two in the game, UK has an eFg% of 58% and draws fouls on 28% of possessions, compared to 53% and 24% for UK's season averages. Their turnover rates are right in line with UK's average, so that pairing should be able to generate strong results. Against UCLA, that duo was +14 in 32 possessions; UK was -22 in the other 41 possessions.
How UofL can win on defense
UofL should be able to force UK into turnovers, but is unlikely to keep UK off the offensive glass. In order to play to their strengths, UofL needs to look at lineups that are successful at limiting opponents eFg%, and force turnovers at a high rate. The best group I can find would be an undersized lineup of Snider/King/Sutton/Adel with a big man (probably Mahmoud or Spalding), or Snider/Perry/Sutton/Adel with a big man. These lineups have held opponents to a 38% eFG% in 95 possessions, with a 27% turnover rate; on the season UofL allows a 43% eFg% and forces turnovers on 20% of possessions. Surprisingly, these undersized lineups have been no worse than UofL's average at defensive rebounding (68% for both). I believe UofL's best chance is to play smaller lineups, pressure UK, and try their best to hang on the defensive glass. It's tough to be good at everything, and UofL has been so bad at offensive rebounding that smaller lineups probably won't be much worse.
UofL on offense/UK on defense
UofL on offense
UofL's shooting on offense has depended quite a bit on what the opponent usually allows. Better defensive teams like Purdue or Grand Canyon held the Cards shooters in check somewhat, but the Cards ran amok on poor defenses like Bryant and St. Francis. Similarly, UofL's offensive rebounding has fluctuated based on the opponent. UofL only really had monster games against teams like Memphis and Bryant, who normally allow a lot of offensive boards, and generally just did a little bit better than the opponent usually allows.
However, UofL has pretty consistently turned the ball over less than opponents normally force. While teams like Seton Hall and Memphis did force UofL into turnovers, it wasn't at the rate those teams normally force. Louisville's really struggled to draw free throws against anyone with a pulse this season; they only did a good job against George Mason, Albany, and Grand Canyon, but struggled even against Siena, who usually gives up a ton of free throws. Overall,
UK on defense
Kentucky has successfully held 8 of their 11 opponents under the opponents' season average in eFg%, although 2 of the 3 who beat their season average were the last 2 games against Virginia Tech and UCLA. Kentucky hasn't had a truly dominant game in terms of opponent eFG% since Troy. They also haven't dominated on the defensive glass in several weeks, showing a pattern recently to allow the other team to get offensive rebounds at about the opponents' season average. Forcing turnovers has become a bright spot on defense lately, as the Wildcats have begun incorporating more pressure defense; prior to the Illinois-Chicago game, UK had struggled to force turnovers, but in the 5 games since they've forced 4 opponents to commit turnovers at a higher rate than they average for the season. A second bright spot has been limiting free throws; only Kansas and Illinois Chicago drew free throws at a higher rate than they average for the season, and most opponents have gotten far fewer free throws against UK than they typically average.
How UofL can win on offense
The Cards haven't really been able to impose their will on anyone in any key offensive area this year. More to the point, they tend to capitalize on the weakness of the other team, but yield somewhat to the strengths. UofL is likely going to draw very few free throws, but should be able to limit turnovers. The Cards are most likely to have success with lineups that can shoot well and get offensive rebounds. Louisville's starters fit the bill here, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them start each half scoring fairly well. The lineups that really stand out, however, are bigger lineups, with two of the Mahmoud/Spalding/Williams big man rotation, and 2 of the Adel/King/Sutton wing rotation. These groups get over 40% of their offensive rebounds, and put up an eFg% of 55%. The Cards may be able to bludgeon UK with some size on offense, although some of these lineups do have higher turnover rates than UofL's average.
How UK can win on defense
UK's ability to defend without fouling seems to be a team-wide skill, so it feels safe to assume the Cards won't be at the free throw line too frequently. UK's best hope for a strong defensive game is if their recent success with pressure defense and forcing turnovers is a real strength, and if they can do so while still defending well in the halfcourt. UK has most successfully been able to to that recently with a frontcourt pairing of Wenyen Gabriel and PJ Washington, using their quickness to pressure and recover. While Nick Richards has been a strong individual rebounder, UK's rebounding as a team has been much worse with him in the game; in order for UK to rebound and defend effectively, he may need to see fewer minutes in this game.
UofL probably needs to adjust their rotations to be at their best, while UK just needs to have a good shooting game...but I have concerns for each team
UK's overall team performance this year has had a shockingly high correlation with their effective field goal percentage. Their eFG% has had almost nothing to do with their opponents' defensive reputation, and has been all over the board. UofL's eFG% defense similarly has very little to do with opponents' offensive reputation, and has bounced around a bit. However, it feels like UofL needs to tinker with their rotation to be at their most effective against UK, and go to smaller lineups; these lineups have only played about 5 minutes per game for UofL. On the contrary, UK needs to rely mostly on Diallo and Gilgeous-Alexander, who play together for about 40% of the game for UK. So, it feels like UK has a small advantage when on offense.
When UofL is on offense, I think they'll be able to have some success. UK doesn't have a lot of lineups that successfully force turnovers without allowing easy baskets, even with their recent use of more pressure. I also have some legitimate concerns about UK's struggles with rebounding when Nick Richards is in the game, and am not convinced UK is going to recognize this and limit his minutes. Against UCLA, Richards played a season high 26 minutes; UK had a 61% defensive rebounding rate with him in and was outscored by 18 points. In the 14 minutes he sat, UK had an 80% defensive rebounding rate and outscored UCLA by 10 points.
Overall, my biggest worry for UofL is their most effective defensive lineups against UK are likely to be smaller lineups, but their most effective offensive lineups are likely to be big lineups. That leads me to believe that UofL will struggle to put together stretches where they can significantly outscore UK, since they'll be having to choose between offensive or defensive groups. For UK, my biggest worry is that they will struggle on defense, and have one of their bad random shooting nights.
Considering everything above, I think I have the most faith in UK's rotation to play their most effective combinations the most time. UofL's starters play about 23% of their possessions, but have an adjusted plus/minus rating of +0.11 pts/possession. UofL's team rating is +0.21 pts/possession, so their most common lineup is also one of their less effective. UK's starters only play about 16% of their possessions, so they are less reliant on one combination and more able to mix and match. UK's starters also have a net rating of +0.19 pts/possession, compared to a team average of +0.20, so their most common lineup isn't as much of a drag on their team performance. I think UK can more easily play combos that will be effective against UofL, whereas UofL has to pick from bench-heavy lineups that can disrupt their rotation. Because of that, I'll predict UK to win by 3 points...say, 71-68.
If UK shoots something like 40% from the field and gives up layups when they try to pressure, however, I wouldn't be surprised. Regardless, it should be another great matchup!
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