UofL's loss to Purdue is no big deal, but the Seton Hall loss (and Memphis win) may be...
UofL hasn't cleared up much so far this season
The Cardinals have done very little to clarify how good they are though 10 games. They've lost to the 2 best teams they've played, Purdue and Seton Hall, and beaten everyone else. None of those wins are against likely NCAA tourney teams, but all were by at least 9 points. The Seton Hall loss was by only 2 points, and while the Purdue loss way by 9 points, it was on the road and against a likely top-15 team.
The Cardinals statistical profile is interesting. They've been excellent at limiting opponents shooting and blocking shots, which is usually the hallmark of an aggressive, athletic defense. However, the Cards have been average at forcing turnovers, and have struggled to draw fouls, which indicates less aggressiveness and athleticism.
UofL's game results indicate they might be pretty good, but they have struggled to put together a consistent full game performance. Likewise, their statistical profile suggests that they can focus on certain areas of the game and get results, but haven't yet been able to consistently apply their talents in all phases. In order to get a better read on the Cardinals, and understand more about how they might hold up against their toughest upcoming opponents, let's look at the Purdue and Seton Hall losses and what they can tell us.
Purdue: some obvious struggles in the first road test
The showdown with Purdue was part of the annual ACC/Big Ten Challenge, which is usually a chance for UofL to play a tough non-conference opponent. This year was no different, as the Boilermakers are rated in the top 10 nationally at KenPom.com. On top of that, this was the first road game for the Cardinals. It's not surprising that UofL came away with a loss, but some of the specifics were a bit surprising.
The Cards struggled to shoot, going 14-45 (31%) on 2 pointers, and posting a 37% effective field goal percentage. That's a far cry from the 53% the Cards have averaged this year. UofL committed a huge number of fouls, and allowed a whopping 32 free throws to Purdue. While Purdue has been excellent this year at defending 2 pointers, they have not been particularly good at drawing free throws, and UofL hasn't shown a tendency to allow a lot of free throws. The degree to which UofL struggled to shoot is surprising, as is the rate that they fouled. The root of the problem can be traced to a 4 min stretch, from 13:04 left in the 2nd half to 9:10 left, when the Cardinals had Anas Mahmoud and Ray Spalding on the bench. UofL went 0-6 over this stretch, with 2 turnovers and 2 fouls, which turned a 5 point lead to a 7 point deficit. The Cardinals fought back to keep the game close, but the 12-0 run by the Boilermakers was too much to overcome.
The particularly odd thing about this stretch of the Purdue game is that the Cardinals have been perfectly fine this season in every other game when Mahmoud and Spalding were on the bench. It's not just a case of the bench beating up on weaker teams; in the next game, UofL outscored a strong Seton Hall team by 7 points in 20 possessions with Mahmoud and Spalding on the bench. In fact, the Purdue game is the only game all season when UofL has been outscored when both Mahmoud and Spalding were out of the game. For the season, UofL has outscored opponents by +50 points in 79 possessions with Spalding and Mahmoud both out; they are +36 in 227 possessions with Spalding and Mahmoud in. This isn't just extending blowouts against bench units, either; lineups without Spalding or Mahmoud are +37 in 55 possessions against 3, 4, or 5 opponent starters, and have yet to play against fewer than 2 opponent starters.
What this boils down to is that I don't believe the Purdue loss shows any negative indicators for UofL this season. For 90% of the game, UofL was a bit better than Purdue. For 10% of the game, UofL was much worse. Nothing about that 10% of the game has caused any problems in any other game for UofL this season, so there's no evidence that Purdue found any particular weakness. UofL managed to struggle shooting at the same time that Purdue got hot from 3; there's not reason to think the two are related. Purdue didn't really capitalize on Mahmoud and Spalding's absence; the Boilermakers were 0-3 on 2 pointers, and their star big man Isaac Haas only managed to hit a pair of free throws. I don't have any worries about UofL based on that loss, and fans shouldn't either.
Seton Hall: You can't give the other team more chances
UofL bounced back nicely in their next game against Seton Hall. Off of their worst shooting night against Purdue, the Cards had on of their best, hitting 62% of their 2 pointers and posting a 55% effective field goal percentage. The Cardinals limited the fouling, allowing 19 free throws (and shooting 19 of their own). Overall, the Cards shot better than the Pirates, and hit more free throws. Seton Hall made up for it, however, with one simple strategy: volume. Despite UofL putting up a 55% eFG% to Seton Hall's 50%, the Pirates took 68 shots to the Cardinals 57. The two culprits were UofL turnovers and Seton Hall offensive rebounds, which piled up the possession advantage for the Pirates.
Unlike the Purdue game, where UofL fell apart when turning to the bench, they were let down by the starting lineup in this one. The starters (Snider/King/Adel/Spalding/Mahmoud) played 8 possessions and were outscored by 7 points. They turned it over 4 times in these 8 possessions, and let Seton Hall corral 5 of the Pirates' 9 missed shots.
I'm a bit more concerned about this performance than the Purdue loss, even thought this game was closer. The Purdue loss is entirely traceable to a fluke stretch that resembles nothing that has occurred in any other game for UofL. The Seton Hall loss falls more on the lineup UofL relies on more than any other, which is troubling by itself. UofL's starting lineup has played 163 possessions this season; no other lineup has even played 35 possessions together. It's more worrisome when your bedrock lineup shows weakness in a game than when your bench struggles for a few minutes. To compound this, UofL's starting lineup has only outscored opponents by +14 points in those 163 possessions. That is good for +.09 points per possession, the worst mark for UofL's 5 most played lineups. In fact, the other 4 of UofL's most played lineups is +47 in their 102 minutes. So, I'm a little concerned that UofL's most frequent lineup is not the lineup that is generating the best results.
When we look at the specifics of their poor performance against Seton Hall, the takeaway is a mixed bag. The starters have not had any turnover problems in any other game besides Seton Hall. In fact, in every other game, UofL's starters have committed turnovers at a lower rate than the team average. Seton Hall isn't among the nation's leaders in forcing turnovers, so that feels like a fluke. The defensive rebounding issue, however, may be more real. Louisville has struggled on the defensive glass this season, rating 243rd by KenPom's stats by allowing opponents to collect 31% of their misses. UofL's starters have been slightly worse than the average, allowing 33%, and only managed to dominate the overmatched Siena and George Mason teams.
Seton Hall is one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country, and that gave UofL a lot of problems. Memphis is similarly strong on the offensive glass, and used that strength to hang in against a hot-shooting Cardinals team. UofL's starters again struggled on the glass in that game, allowing Memphis to collect 44% of their misses and being outscored by 1 point in 26 possessions. Unfortunately for the Cards, they face a gauntlet of strong offensive rebounding teams in the coming weeks:
Albany ranks 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate, per KenPom.com
Kentucky ranks 14th
Florida State ranks 9th
Looking ahead further in conference, Duke and Syracuse are #1 and #2 in offensive rebounding rate. So, UofL is likely to have some struggles in those games, even if the Cards shoot well. They will simply give opponents too many chances.
While it's easy to be discouraged in seeing UofL come up short in the 2 games against quality opponents, the two games paint different pictures of UofL's future prospects. The Purdue game showed UofL can outplay a top opponent over most of the game, and the determining stretch of the game didn't reveal any problems that are likely to plague UofL. The Seton Hall loss, however, flashed signs that UofL's continuing struggles on the defensive glass (particularly from their starting lineup) are exploitable by some of their upcoming opponents. On the bright side, some of UofL's tougher opponents this season are quite poor at offensive rebounding (Miami and Notre Dame, particularly), so the Cards should be able to hold their own successfully against those teams. There are a lot of reasons to believe that UofL can notch some big wins this season, and fans should avoid getting discouraged by losses in tough non-conference games.
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