UK's Improved Shooting, and why 2 gifted passers are the key
UK has played much better lately...and it seems to be due to better shooting
For my new readers, my favorite stat to measure a team's performance is scoring margin per possession (adjusted for opponent). It conveys how effective a team (or lineup) was at outscoring the opposition on a per-possession basis, so it can be compared pretty much apples-to-apples. It is expressed as a decimal, and generally anything above +0.20 points per possession is good. A college game is about 70 possessions, so +0.20 equals a +14 margin over a game. I adjust using Ken Pomeroy's team rankings, which he expresses in points per 100 possessions, so this stat measures a team's performance compared to an average college team that year. I also call it adjusted plus/minus, or adjusted +/-.
UK's first few games were a bit ugly, as they graded out around +0.17 after 3 games. Using this stat, their best performance was the loss to Kansas, because it should take a better team to lose by 5 to one of the best teams than to beat a below-average Utah Valley team by only 10. I'd generally agree from watching the games; UK played better against Kansas than in their first 2 games.
UK's been improving steadily through the season, however. Wins against UIC, Fort Wayne, and East Tennessee State represent UK's 3 best performances, and they came in the last 4 games. In fact, the curve has been trending upwards except for a letdown against Troy:
When I see something like that, I like to look at supporting stats to see if any of them hav followed the same trend, and might be causing this improvement. I focus on the widely-accepted "Four Factors": shooting, rebounding, turnovers, and free throws. Most of these don't help, as they don't really match the improvement:
Against East Tennessee State, UK turned the ball over a ton, and didn't draw many free throws (or hit them!)
Fort Wayne shot very well, so it wasn't shooting defense that's been carrying the Cats; UK also forced very few turnovers that game
UK rebounded poorly against Illinois Chicago, and allowed a lot of free throws
There is one stat, however, that has been pretty closely correlated to UK's adjusted plus/minus:
UK's shooting (as measured by effective FG%) has very closely tracked their overall scoring margin. The three best shooting games have been UK;'s best performances, and the dip against Troy even matches. We're still dealing with a small number of games, but it's reasonable to say that UK's better performances this season have come when they shoot better. Their performance has been the result of a number of factors, so it's not a complete picture to say UK only needs to shoot well to play well, but clearly it's a big key for this team.
With that in mind, what have been key factors that help UK shoot better this season?
You don't need to be a great shooter to help the team shoot better
First, let's state the facts:
UK had an effective FG% of 45% in their first 3 games, and 61% since (even with the Troy dropoff)
Which players have improved their shooting? A couple examples stand out:
Kevin Knox was at 46% eFG% through three games, and is at 61% since
Nick Richards was at 46%, and is at 77% since
Quade Green was at 39%, and is at 76% since
UK has dramatically improved their shooting with these players in the game, compared to earlier this season. Take a look:
1st 3 games: 44% eFG with Knox in, 68% with him out; 49% eFG with Richards in, 43% with him out; 40% with Green in and 53% with him out
Last 4 games: 63% with Knox in, 56% with him out; 65% with Richards in, 58% with him out; 64% with Green in and 58% with him out
Those are some big improvements, and it's fair to say that improved shooting by these core players has helped UK's shooting. However, it doesn't seem plausible that all of these players just figured out how to shoot at the same time. It seems more likely that some other factor is helping improve these effective field goal percentages.
UK hasn't really changed their style of offense dramatically. The frequency of 3 pointers is very similar in the last 4 games, compared to the first 3. UK isn't getting a dramatically higher percentage of their shots early in the shot clock, which might indicate more fast breaks; they also haven't dramatically reduced their shots late in the shot clock. Rather, UK is shooting better in nearly every facet. I do think, however, there is a contributing factor: passing. Specifically, the passing skills of Hamidou Diallo and PJ Washington.
Diallo and Washington seem to open up the offense with passing
I added a new feature to my software tools this season: the ability to track players stats with and without specific teammates in the game. I've looked at it sporadically in years past, but wanted to make it a standard part of my data. When I looked at it for this article, I saw something stark: Diallo and Washington's presence in the game has a huge impact on teammates' shooting, more so than any other teammates. Diallo particularly seems to improve teammates' 3 point shooting with his ability to drive and kick. Here are a few examples:
Quade Green has a 68% eFG% with Diallo in, 57% with him out; it's due to 3 point shooting, which is 83% with Diallo in and 30% with him out
Kevin Knox is at 65% with Diallo in (43% from 3) and 27% with him out (13% from 3)
Wenyen Gabriel is at 58% with Diallo in (43% from 3) and 33% with him out (25% from 3)
Only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shoots noticeably better with Diallo out, but he shoots less frequently with Diallo out that any UK player
Washington has a similar effect on eFG% for UK's big men, as he has demonstrated very capable passing out of the post:
Nick Richards has a 71% eFG% with Washington in, and 55% with him out
Wenyen Gabriel is at 60% with Washington in, and 42% with him out
Sacha Killeya-Jones is at 58% with Washington in, and 40% with him out
You can see their impact against Illinois Chicago. About 4 1/2 minutes in, Diallo drove the lane and kicked to Gilgeous-Alexander for an open three, which he made. A Quade Green open three about 5 minutes into the second half came on a possession again started by Diallo driving into the defense and moving the ball. That Green three, as well as a later on by Gabriel, were assisted on by PJ Washington on passes out of the post.
After looking at the improved shooting (both in the stats and on film), I took a look at the asisst rates for Diallo and Washington on KenPom.com. What I found was staggering: Diallo and Washington have the 2 highest assist rates for any non-point guard under Calipari at UK. Their passing from the wing and post positions are unparalleled at UK in the last 8 years, and that is having a dramatic effect on UK's shooting and ability to win games. If you watch the games closely, you'll see Diallo drive and kick, and Washington pass to open teammates, and notice shots going in a little more often. Little by little, that adds up to bigger UK wins. For a team that came into the season worried about shooting, it appears that uniquely skilled passers are the key to unlocking the Wildcats offensive potential.
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