UofL's offensive pace, and VJ King's shooting woes
The Cards are flying! (at least on offense)
In a previous newsletter, I noted that UofL had changed their offensive style through the first 2 games of the season to play at a much faster pace. Now that the Cardinals have 4 games under their belt, nothing much has changed. According to KenPom.com, the Cardinals rank 8th nationally in fewest seconds per offensive possession at 14.0. This is assuredly a choice by new coach David Padgett, as the Cards never ranked better than 27th in this metric under Rick Pitino, and only were in the top 50 three times. You can see this change in tempo play out if you look at their shot selection by how much time has elapsed on the shot clock:
In the 2016-17 season, UofL took 21% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and 10% after 25 seconds had elapsed
So far this season, UofL is taking 28% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and 4% after 25 seconds has elapsed
On balance, it should be a good thing for a team to get more early shots, because teams tend to have a higher eFg% on them. This is driven by the fact that many of these shots come in transition before the defense is set, or when it's a full fast break. This yields more shots that are either open, or are very close to the rim. Last season, UofL posted an eFg% of 54% on these shots, compared to 51% overall. This season they have been even better, with a 61% eFG% on these shots vs. 52% overall. It's generally a good thing to take more shots in situations where you are more successful!
No returning player embodies this tactical change more than VJ King. Last season. 24% of his shots came within the first 10 seconds of a possession. This season, that number is up to a whopping 45%! So, he's really changed his game, and UofL as a team seems to really be benefiting.
Why, then, is VJ King's shooting so bad this season? Is this just a flukishly bad start, or is it a sign of a problem?
VJ King's shooting woes...what exactly is the problem?
First, the facts about VJ King's poor shooting so far:
He's 3-for-9 on threes (33%) and a disastrous 5-for-24 (21%) on twos
This results in an effective FG% of 29%; that is disastrously bad, and a full 10% worse than any other Cardinal
I already presented the fact that King is taking 45% of his shots early in the possession this year, compared to 24% last season. Last year King had a 53% eFG% on early shots, compared to 49% overall..so you wouldn't have expected him to have trouble shooting just because he's taking more shots early in a possession. It's not just his early shots that are causing problems this season, either. He has an eFG% of 27% on quick shots, and 31% on all others. So, we're going to have to look a little harder. First, what else does the data say?
Let's look at the type of shots he's taking. Per Hoop-Math.com, King is taking 39% of his shots at the rim, 33% as 2 point jumpers, and 27% as threes (totals don't add to 100% due to rounding). He's shooting more frequently at the rim than last year (30% of his shots last year), and taking fewer 2 point jumpers (42%). That should be a really good thing, since shots near the rim go in more often than 2 point jumpers!
Again, we see that VJ King is taking better quality shots more frequently this year, but getting much worse results. What's going on here?
I went back to watch the Cards' last game against St. Francis (PA). King had a season high 10 points, but only on 3-11 shooting (1-6 on twos, 2-5 on threes). The first thing that jumps out is that King is taking some very difficult shots. Of his 6 two-point attempts, 4 came when he was closely defended, and most of his drives into the paint were met by multiple opponents. All 4 came when he was dribbling into the heart of the defense in the middle of the floor, and King repeatedly took contested shots. King did have 2 "open" shots near the rim, both of which he missed; one was a fast break dunk that he mishandled, and one was a layup off a backdoor cut where he appeared to stumble. He did shoot better on threes, all of which could generally be considered open.
Under Padgett, King seems to be encouraged to create his own shot. However, this is resulting in a lot of contested shots, and King is struggling to finish them. Looking at the tape, he may have some footwork issues; on three pointers, his right foot seems to come forward more than his left, and on drives King doesn't seem to elevate over defenders to take advantage of his full 6'6" frame and 6'10" wingspan (per NBADraft.net).
VJ King is nowhere near as bad of a shooter as his early season numbers suggest. He's clearly trying to find quality shots, as evidenced by his increased frequency of shots near the rim, and more frequent early shots. However, he's struggling to get open looks inside the three point arc. If I was David Padgett, I'd keep encouraging King's offensive "process"; he's trying to get quality shots. I'd also have him work on footwork, as a 6'6" guard with a 6'10" wingspan should be able to finish in traffic against college defenses. I'd also look to get him more shots off of cuts and screens, to find open shooting opportunities for him and increase his confidence.
I don't think King's bad shooting will continue, but I'll be watching carefully to see the small improvements that can lead to some big changes: more open looks (especially on twos), and finishing over/around defenders in the paint.
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