Checking in with UofL early in the season
A slow start, but still 3-0 with the easy schedule
Nobody quite knew what to expect from the Louisville Cardinals coming into this season. With the abrupt firing of Rick Pitino and promotion of David Padgett, plus the spectre of a looming NCAA investigation, everything about the team was uncertain. From style of play, to level of focus, to the actual roster, it was anybody's guess. For the first 2 games, things were pretty ugly.
The Cards opened against George Mason and Nebraska-Omaha, two programs that nobody expects to contend for postseason berths; KenPom.com ranks both in the bottom half of NCAA D-1 teams. UofL turned the ball over a ton (21% of possession, which would rank about 250th nationally) and rebounded really poorly on defense (allowed offensive boards on 31% of chances, which would rank about 210th). That resulted in beating 2 below average teams by a combined 20 points. I suppose you could say "a win's a win", but by my metrics, the Cards were playing at the level of a team ranked about 100th in the country. Last year the 100th ranked team was Akron...and no UofL fan is interested in their team being compared to Akron.
Luckily, the Cards appeared to turn it around against Southern Illinois. While the Salukis are another relative lightweight (~150th nationally), Louisville's turnover and defensive rebounding issues went away. They committed turnovers on 11% of their possessions, and allowed offensive boards 22% of the time. Either mark would rank in the top 10 nationally as a season average. So, the biggest issues seem to be settled.
Some things stayed the same, but some have changed dramatically
UofL has opened the season shooting poorly, and infrequently, from 3 point range. While Rick Pitino gained fame coaching a style that favored long-distance marksmanship, the reality is that UofL had not shot the 3 often or well in recent years. The Cards haven't ranked in top 100 nationally in 3-point FG% since 2014 (with Russ Smith, Luke Hancock, et al) and haven't been in the top 100 in 3-point frequency since 2011 (with Peyton Siva, Preston Knowles, et al). Holdovers Deng Adel (just 1 for 9) and Quentin Snider (3 for 15) have really struggled on three pointers so far this season, while freshman Darius Perry (4 for 9) and Jordan Nwora (4 for 8, more on him later!) have been bright spots from deep. It seems pretty likely that UofL will struggle all season from deep, although there is possibility for improvement if Adel and Snider bounce back while Perry and Nwora can maintain their hot starts.
There is one big change that I've noticed in UofL's offensive strategy this season, however. The Cards are shooting really quickly. In fact, UofL ranks 7th nationally in shortest time per offensive possession. While turnovers do play a part, UofL is only taking 3% of their shots after 25 or more seconds have expired on the shot clock (per hoop-math.com). Over the past several season, the Cards have averaged about 10% of their shots deep into the shot clock. They are also getting out in transition more often; 31% of the time, vs 20% in prior years. This increase in transition shots isn't coming because of more steals; UofL is right on their steal averages from recent years. It's clear that they are pushing the pace more often. In the halfcourt, UofL appears to be running more quick-hitting plays, but not at the expense of ball movement. UofL is assisting on about 49% of their field goals, slightly up from recent years; so Snider/Adel/King/et al are not just creating their own shots.
Jordan Nwora is making a HUGE difference
Through 3 games, UofL has been up and down, but one player has had a consistently positive impact when in the game: Jordan Nwora. In no uncertain terms, UofL has been decidedly better with him in the game this year. Take a look at UofL's scoring margin with him in vs out in each game:
Vs George Mason: +17pts in 25 possession with Nwora in; -6 in 46 possession with him out
Vs. Omaha: +10 in 16 possessions w/ Nwora; -1 in 62 without
Vs. Southern Illinois: +34 in 39 possessions w/ Nwora; +8 in 34 possessions without
Add it up, and UofL is a staggering +61 in 80 possessions with Nwora in the game, and +1 in 142 possessions with him sitting. He's not just dominating bench units, either...35 of his 80 possessions are with 4 or 5 opposing starters (44%), and UofL is +19 in those 35 possessions. This effect really seems to be mostly isolated to Nwora's minutes, too. UofL outscores opponents by 76 points per 100 possessions with Nwora in the game. If this was skewed by a teammate, UofL should have a very good scoring margin when Nwora was out, and that key teammate was in...but that just isn't what's happening:
Nwora In: +76 pts per 100 poss
Nwora Out and
Snider In: +3 per 100
Adel In: -9 per 100
King In: +14 per 100
Spalding In: -15 per 100
Mahmoud In: +13 per 100
Perry In: +4 per 100
Williams In: +0 per 100
Sutton In: +3 per 100
It's just staggering...UofL is dominant when Nwora is in, and really only Nwora!
Plus minus shows the result, but offers no clue as to what is causing this. For that, we have to look deeper. It appears that UofL has 3 big advantages when Nwora plays compared to when he sits:
Opponents shoot worse with Nwora in (25% eFG%, vs 44% with him out)
UofL rebounds better with Nwora in (82% def reb%, vs 67% with him out)
UofL turns it over less with Nwora in (13% turnover rate, vs 20% with him out)
The main question is, can we give Nwora credit for this, or is he just happening to be in the game when UofL plays well? I went back to watch film of UofL with Nwora in and out, and I have some thoughts.
First, I am not inclined to give him much credit for avoiding turnovers. Nwora himself doesn't have a lower turnover rate than other UofL players, and he doesn't handle the ball much when in the game. The lower turnover rate is mostly caused by the coincidence that he played a lot against Southern Illinois, when other UofL players avoided turnovers. In the first 2 games, UofL's turnover rate was not substantially lower with him in the game.
However, I do think Nwora is positively impacting UofL's defense and rebounding. UofL has consistently limited opponents' shooting much more, and been excellent at defensive rebounding, with Nwora in the game. Looking at the film, there are 2 main reasons:
Nwora is a very active and capable defender, especially on the perimeter
Against Southern Illinois, King and Adel struggled to contain ballhandlers, allowing them into the lane for either easy shots or passes. Nwora did a much better job of staying in front of ballhandlers. When defending the pick and roll, Nwora visibly communicated well, and his pressure led to 2 steals. In fact, I was surprised to see Nwora occasionally on the backline of a 2-3 matchup zone with Adel out front; I would expect to see UofL use Nwora much more often as a perimeter defender to take advantage of his skills. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some starts as well.
Nwora is an active defensive rebounder, especially from the weakside
Nwora actually has the 2nd highest defensive rebounding percentage for UofL, behind only Dwayne Sutton, and well ahead of Spalding, Adel, Mahmoud, or Williams. He's very effective at getting rebounds from the weakside in the matchup zone, and looks to push the pace when getting the board. Opponents usually have trouble boxing out against a zone defense, especially against a player who is defending on the perimeter, and Nwora takes advantage through sheer effort. It helps UofL to be able to play smaller lineups without sacrificing much, and leads to the plus/minus results I called out earlier.
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