Looking at UK weaknesses, and reason to be concerned about Kevin Knox's offense?
The Wildcats have made some progress, but still have lingering issues
Through 4 games, the Wildcats have yet to find a consistent rhythm. This is not unexpected, given the extreme youth on the roster, but does make it difficult to know what to expect on any given night. First, let's take a look at some of the positives:
UK ranks 10th in the country in percentage of opponent's shots being blocked
UK ranks in the top 50 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, as well as the rate of free throws allowed; in both cases, they have shown improvement in the last 2 games after a so-so first 2 games
However, there are a few areas that are real trouble spots:
UK is 296th (out of 351 teams) in turnover rate
UK is 294th in defensive rebounding rate
Oh god, the free throw shooting...309th nationally!
To be fair on the free throw shooting, UK has been generally fine outside of the East Tennessee State 3-15 debacle. However, the turnovers and defensive rebounding have been consistent problems, and have gotten worse in the last 2 games. I feel very differently about these 2 problem areas, however...
The turnovers are likely a solvable problem
The turnover issue boils down to 3 (maybe 4) players having historic issues. The worst offender is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is turning the ball over at a rate far surpassing any UK player ever under Calipari. Per KenPom.com, nearly 38% of the time SGA is using a possessions (shooting, drawing a foul, or turning it over), it's a turnover. He has 11 turnovers this year, with 12 made shots and 13 assists! That's not the kind of line you're looking for from your point guard. Nearly as bad are PJ Washington and Nick Richards. In fact, SGA, Washington, and Richards all have turnover rates higher than any UK player has posted under Calipari for a full season. Kevin Knox also has a pretty high turnover rate, although not as historic. That's 4 of UK's core 8 man rotation. So, why do I think the turnovers are a solvable problem?
The reason is twofold. First, all of the above players are freshmen, and one of the areas they tend to see the most improvement is turnovers. Over the last few years, nearly every significant UK freshman has decreased their turnover rate substantially as the season progressed.
Secondly, the remaining rotation players are actually doing a very good job of managing turnovers. Hamidou Diallo and Quade Green have posted lower turnover rates than any Kentucky guard under Calipari, except for Aaron Harrison. Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones have lowered their turnover rates compared to their freshman year, and Gabriel is on pace to record the lowest turnover rate of any UK player under Calipari. So, UK has players who have been able to manage turnovers, and has the ability to give them more playing time if need be.
The defensive rebounding issues are more troubling
UK has never been a good defensive rebounding team under Calipari, but this season has started off extremely poorly. The average D-1 team gets about 71% of their opponent's misses. UK has only exceeded that mark against Vermont, and is averaging 66% for the season. Unlike the turnover issues, the defensive rebounding woes are all across the roster.
Among the big men, only Nick Richards and Kevin Knox are getting defensive rebounds at rates anywhere near the standard for Kentucky. Sacha Killeya-Jones and PJ Washington in particular are putting up defensive rebounding numbers similar to what Isaiah Briscoe did during his UK career.
To make matters worse, UK's guards are not chipping in at all. The past couple of years, guards like De'Aaron Fox, Isaiah Briscoe, and Jamal Murray would help out by snaring 10% or more of the opponent misses. None of UK's guards (Diallo, Green, SGA) have managed to hit that mark so far this year. Green is at 4.2%, by far the lowest mark for any rotation player under Calipari, and SGA is at 7.8%, barely above Tyler Ulis despite being 9 or 10 inches taller.
I'm less bullish about significant improvement here, because defensive rebounding is not as clearly an ares where players tend to improve during the year under Calipari. Furthermore, UK simply has a history of not being very good at defensive rebounding under Calipari, so he clearly doesn't like to emphasize it in practice. Lastly, nobody has been doing a very good job, so it's harder for Calipari to tell any one player that they will lose minutes if they don't rebound...there are not really many good alternatives!
Kevin Knox is UK's leading scorer, but having troubles creating offense...huh?
Kevin Knox has been UK's leading scorer this season at 15ppg through 4 games. He is shooting 43% on 3's, to make up for a more pedestrian 39% on 2's. You would think that his 2 point shooting would come around, and he would become the NBA-bound offensive force that was expected before this season. But a look deeper into the numbers reveals that there may be some issues with his offensive game...
Shooting 43% on three pointers is excellent, especially on 5+ attempts per game, and by a 6'9" player. That is a good way to get noticed by NBA scouts. All of his three pointers have been assisted, meaning they were catch-and-shoot threes, but that's not unusual; 19 of UK's 20 made three pointers this season have been assisted. Last season it was 237 of 267. UK doesn't tend to take a lot of threes off the dribble. No issues there.
Shooting 39% on two pointers is not great, but it's not a death knell through 4 games. The bigger issue is what his offensive profile tells us. Knox is 11/28 on 2 pointers, but 9 of his 11 made 2 pointers have been assisted. So, he's been very dependent on teammates to set him up for makeable shots. Take a look at how Knox's dependence on assists compares to teammate Hamidou Diallo, as well as recent UK alums Malik Monk and Jamal Murray:
Knox: 9 of 11 made 2 pointers assisted (82%); 39% shooting
Diallo: 9 of 18 makes assisted (50%); 49% shooting
Monk: 51 of 147 makes assisted (35%); 50% shooting
Murray: 28 of 131 makes assisted (21%); 50% shooting
So, Knox depends much more on assists, and shoots a worse overall percentage. This indicates that he struggles greatly when not being set up by a teammate. UK's wing players who have recently been drafted to the NBA have a profile of being able to create offense on their own, while hitting about 50% of their 2 pointers; Knox so far does not match this profile at all. Diallo appears to be the more dynamic offensive creator so far, and much more in line with the typical profile of UK's NBA exports.
Although Kevin Knox has had some strong scoring nights from the outside, he desperately needs to improve his ability to create offense off the dribble, and finish shots without depending on an assist. If Knox was playing with a De'Aaron Fox or Tyler Ulis, who could create open shots rather easily, his style would be fine, but UK doesn't have that this year. He is likely to have some very poor shooting nights as he figures out how to get his own shot against college defenses.
This assessment is by no means the final word on Knox's offensive game this season. For example, Karl-Anthony Towns was very ineffective in the post early in his UK career; he didn't score in double figures for his first 5 games, and put up 6 point total in back to back games against UNC and UCLA in December of his freshman year. He eventually put it together, and began dominating games later in the season on his way to the #1 overall pick. There is the distinct possibility that Knox will improve dramatically. He may have to if UK is going to reach anywhere near their offensive potential this season.
Thanks for reading my newsletter. If you have any questions, want to argue a point, or have some feedback, feel free to reach out via email at sean@hoopsinsight.com, or on Twitter @hoopsinsights. If you liked this, let me know as well, and tell your friends to subscribe at www.hoopsinsight.com.
You can forward this to others, but please ask them to subscribe as well so I can keep track of who's enjoying my insight and analysis.