Hamidou Diallo means a lot to UK so far....
The Wildcats have flat-out struggled early
It hasn't been a pretty start to Kentucky's season. 2 games, and zero wins by more than 10 points, despite playing pretty marginal competition. We've never seen a team this young (basically all freshmen), so it stands to reason that we'd see performances that are different from what we've seen in years past. But in Calipari's 8 seasons coaching the Wildcats, only 2010 (his first season) and 2013 (the only season missing the NCAAs) saw the Cats struggle in their opening 2 games. It's not a great sign that they had to work so hard to beat a Utah Valley team that isn't an NCAA contender, or a Vermont team that will be a double digit seed at best.
The early season struggles are not as widespread as you'd think
UK has played 22 lineups during their first 2 games, and have outscored opponents by a total of 14 points. 3 of the 22 lineups have been outscored heavily in the first 2 games, however, while nearly every other lineup has managed to outscore their opponents. The 3 worst lineups for UK have been outscored substantially in relatively little playing time:
Green/Gilgeous-Alexander/Knox/Washington/Killeya-Jones: -6 pts in 8 possessions
Green/Gilgeous-Alexander/Knox/Washington/Gabriel: -8 pts in 7 possessions
Green/Gilgeous-Alexander/Knox/Gabriel/Killeya-Jones: -14 pts in 13 possessions
These lineups have combined to play 28 possessions and get outscored by a whopping 29 points!
Looking at the combinations above, you can see that they all are missing Hamidou Diallo and Nick Richards. That would lead you to think that UK struggles when either Diallo or Richards is out of the game. When we look to confirm that, we find out that's only half right:
Diallo + Richards In: +23 pts in 57 possessions
DIallo + Richards Out: -26 pts in 30 possessions
Diallo In, Richard Out: +17 pts in 42 possessions
Diallo Out, Richards In: +0 pts in 11 possessions
So, the numbers bear out that UK is amazing with Diallo in (+40 pts in 99 possessions) and terrible with him out (-26 pts in 41 possessions). We can dig a bit further to see what is going on to cause this disparity....
Some of this is caused by some unsustainablty hot 3 point shooting from Utah Valley when Diallo was on the bench. The Wolverines shot 75% on threes with Diallo out, but that's just a hot streak. Vermont was a little better from three with Diallo out, but not to an alarming degree. So, we can ignore that for now since it's not likely to keep being a problem.
The biggest issues are that UK is struggling to shoot with Diallo out, and opponents are lighting it up, especially on twos. I went back to watch some film of UK with Diallo out, and two problems jump out right away that are causing these:
1) Quade Green and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are having trouble stopping dribble penetration, leading to easier shots for the opponents. Vermont's guards looked to penetrate every time with Diallo out, and either got to the basket or forced help defense, and passed to a teammate for an easy shot. This is apparent time and time again.
2) Kevin Knox has struggled in the early going when relied on to create offense. With Diallo in the game, Knox has been content to take a backseat. He's taken 12 of UK's 85 field goal attempts in these cases (14%), and has a 58% eFG%. With Diallo out, Knox is forced to shoulder a larger burden, as he's taken 11 of UK's 37 shots (30%). He is 0-11 on these shots, for an eFg% of exactly zero!
The good news is, these issues are totally fixable! Freshman guards tend to be poor defenders, and improve during the season. UK may take some lumps, since they don't have the depth to bench Green or Gilgeous-Alexander for extended stretches, but they will almost certainly improve. Also, I am certain Kevin Knox will not go the whole season without hitting a shot when Diallo is on the bench. Knox's pedigree suggests he should be able to create offense at this level, and he'll round into form.
Now that you, dear reader, are preparing to watch Kentucky take on Kansas, I hope you know what to watch for:
1) Can UK keep the game close when Hamidou Diallo needs to rest?
2) Can Quade Green and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defend ballhandlers reasonably well?
3) Can Kevin Knox break his slump sans Diallo, and become the secondary offensive threat UK needs?
I hope you enjoyed this early season look at the Wildcats, and as always, reach out if you have questions!
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