Is UK Back Near Their Best?
A Season of Ups and Downs
Kentucky's season so far can basically be broken into 3 segments:
The first 15 games, through Arkansas on Jan 7th, was their best stretch
The next 9 games (Vanderbilt Jan 10 through LSU Feb 7) was their worst stretch
The last 4 games (Alabama Feb 11 through Missouri Feb 21) has been close to their best, but with some issues
Let's look at each stretch, and what the data says about what went well and what didn't.
The Good Stretch (First 15 games)
UK went 13-2, with close losses to top-10 teams UCLA and Louisville. They were outscoring opponents by 23 points per game, but that was a bit inflated by a lot of nonconference lightweights. Still, UK was performing pretty well:
+0.37 adjusted +/- per possession
Good on offense! (1.20 pts/possession, 54% eFG)
Taking care of the ball (14% turnover rate)
Good on defense! (Allowed 0.91 pts/possession, 45% opponent eFG)
Didn't foul much (Fouled on 24% of possessions)
While UK had played some soft opponents, they had played some tough defenses (Michigan St, Valparaiso, Louisville), some good shooting teams (Michigan St, UCLA), and some teams who draw free throws well (Hofstra, UNC). Overall these numbers were pretty strong, and UK was near the top of KenPom.com's ratings.
The Downturn (Next 9 games)
UK went 6-3, with only 2 double digit wins despite playing only 3 teams in KenPom's top 40 over this stretch. Some issues started to creep up:
+0.20 adjusted +/- per possession
Slumped a bit on offense (1.10 pts/poss, 54% eFG)
A little sloppy with the ball (18% turnover rate)
Not very good on defense (Allowed 1.05 pts/poss, 54% opponent eFG)
Fouled a bit more (fouled on 26% of possessions)
So, UK got a bit sloppy with turnovers, let opponents shoot a higher percentage, and committed fouls a little more often. The fouling was understandable, since the teams UK was playing tended to draw more fouls than the teams UK had been playing earlier. However, these 9 opponents didn't have a tendency to force turnovers any more often than UK's earlier opponents, and have a lower eFG% on the season than UK's first 15 opponents. So, the turnovers and opponent shooting aren't the result of the opponents; that's on the Wildcats.
The turnover issue is largely explainable by the fact that De'Aaron Fox missed some time, and was probably hampered by an ankle injury even when he did play. For the season UK has committed turnovers at a higher rate when Fox is out (18%) than when he plays (15%). During this 9 game stretch, UK committed more turnovers with Fox out (19%) than with him in (17%).
The opponent shooting is a bit of a mystery. As I said before, these weren't great shooting teams UK was playing in this stretch. 6 of the 9 teams shot better against UK than they have shot for the season; only 2 teams during the rest of the season have shot better against UK than their season average. My best guess is that Fox's injury kept him from locking in on defense and stopping dribble penetration. During this 9 game stretch, teams shot:
55% eFG with Fox in the game on defense
51% eFG with him out of the game
For the season, UK opponents shoot:
47% eFG with Fox in the game on defense
49% eFG with him out of the game
The fact that opponents suddenly shot much better with Fox in, but only a bit better with him out, leads me to believe that he was playing injured and was less effective than usual.
So, UK had a disappointing 9 game stretch, but it seems that some of that was due to injury to a key player. What's happened since?
A Rebound? (The last 4 games)
UK has bounced back somewhat, going 4-0 in the last 4 games despite 3 of the 4 on the road. The road factor is important, since UK has not been great on the road; they have 2 road wins by double digits, and 1 of them was the 10 point win over a bad Missouri team. How have their numbers been in this stretch?
+0.27 adjusted +/- per possession
Not great on offense (1.04 pts/poss, 50% eFG)
OK taking care of the ball (17% turnover rate)
Good on defense! (Allowed 0.88 pts/poss, 45% opponent eFG)
Fouling a lot! (fouled on 30% of possessions)
The offense is as bad as it's been all season, but the defense has bounced back...except for a sharp increase in fouls. In fact, UK's propensity for allowing free throws in this stretch would put them in the bottom 25 of the country. Not 25%, the bottom 25...out of 351! So, they're foul prone.
What's wrong with the offense? For starters, they are getting out in transition less often. Only 32% of their shots have been transition or secondary break, compared to 38% for the season. That's forcing UK to run more halfcourt offense, which is not their strong suit. In particular, UK is taking more 2 point jumpers, and hitting fewer. In this 4 game stretch, 34% of their shots have been 2 point jumpers up from 30% for the rest of the year. UK is 23 of 84, for 27%, on these shots, compared to 36% for the season.
The fouling is a big problem, but isn't completely unexpected. Alabama, Tennesee, and Georgia have 3 of the highest rates of drawing fouls of any UK opponents. On top of that, UK gets called for more fouls on the road anyway. Their foul rate has been 29% on the road this season, compared to 24% at home.
So, are the Wildcats over their midseason slump? I'd say yes. UK's defense has largely bounced back to its best form, and the biggest issue (fouling) is not unusual for the Wildcats on the road. UK's offense has slumped, but that's mostly due to some shot selection issues. If UK makes a more concerted effort to get out in transition, and gets back to their season average on 2 point jumpers, they'll be right back among the best teams in the nation.
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