UofL Struggles Against Starters....But There's Something They Can Do
Some key UofL stats against varying number of opponent starters. Note that UofL's +/- per possession is much lower against 5 starters, but pretty consistent against 4 or fewer.
UofL has a tougher time on offense vs starters, but not on defense
The chart above shows some key stats for UofL against 5, 4, 3, 2, or less than 2 starters. As you can see, UofL's adjusted +/- per possession is +0.17 against 5 starters, but at least double that against lineups with any substitutes. The difference is driven by UofL's offense, which scores 0.96 points per possession against starters but at least 1.11 against any bench lineups. The Cardinals clearly have a much tougher time scoring against starters. That isn't all that unexpected, since starters should be the best players, but apparently everything is cured once a single bench player enters. Furthermore, UofL doesn't have an easier time scoring as more bench players enter the game.To make this even more unusual, UofL allows 0.93 points per possession to starters, and roughly the same number to lineups with any bench player in the game. So, UofL has a much harder time scoring against starters, but has no real issues defending against them? That seems odd.
If we look deeper, we can see that UofL has trouble with shooting and turning the ball over against starters. The Cardinals put up an eFG% of just 44.5% against starters, but are above 50% for the rest of the game. They turn the ball over on 19% of their possessions against starters, but are consistently at 15% against any other lineups. Again, these gaps in performance aren't really present on the defensive side of the ball for Louisville.
Let's look a level deeper, at lineup-specific stats, to see if we can pinpoint the issues.
UofL has
UofL has played 415 possessions against 5 opposing starters this season. UofL's most common lineup this season against 5 starters has been:
Quentin Snider
Donovan Mitchell
Deng Adel
Jaylen Johnson
Mangok Mathiang
This is UofL's usual starting lineup when healthy. This lineup has played 118 possessions against opponent starting lineups, and has outscored them by +24 points.The same lineup with Ray Spalding in Johnson's place is +9 in 29 possessions vs 5 starters, the 3rd most common lineup. So, these two combined are +33 in 147 possessions. Every other lineup UofL has played against 5 starters has combined to be outscored by -19 points in 268 possessions. So, UofL's starters have been able to outscore opponent starters, but when UofL lets bench lineups play against starters they've been outscored.
The difference is even more pronounced against likely NCAA tournament teams. UofL has played 11 games against teams in the top 40 at KenPom.com, and 199 possessions in those games against starting lineups. The 2 lineups mentioned above (usual starters, and starters with Spalding for Johnson) are +11 in 55 possessions, while everyone else for UofL is -59 in 144 possessions. So, against the starting lineups for likely NCAA tournament teams, UofL's usual starters hold their own and bench lineups get dominated.
This has real implications for UofL in the NCAA tournament, for two reasons. First, teams tend to play their starters more often during the NCAA tournament due to the importance of the games and the extra TV timeouts to provide rest. So, UofL is likely to play more against 5 starters in the NCAA. It's crucial to close the gap in UofL's play vs 5 starters and vs bench lineups.
Second, the win-or-go-home nature of the NCAA tournament means it's crucial to shore up every possible weakness. If UofL can make some simple tweaks to improve their performance, they should absolutely do it.
My recommendation would be that UofL try to match their starters against opposing starters as much as possible. This is obviously easy at the beginning of halves, but they should also be aware of times when opponents switch from bench lineups back to starters. This might seem natural, but UofL has had some games (Old Dominion, Purdue, Syracuse) where they played bench lineups against starters for 10 possessions or more. So, faithful reader, when you watch Louisville play the rest of the season, try to make note of any time UofL is playing bench lineups against opponent starting lineups...I'd be willing to bet UofL will be getting outscored in those minutes.
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