Malik Monk's (lack of) Rebounding is No Big Deal
Many Kentucky basketball writers and fans raised the issue of Malik Monk's poor rebounding recently, when he went 5 consecutive halves without getting a rebound. While that is not usually a good sign, in this case it's not anything to be concerned about. In this Hoops Insight newsletter, I'm going to make the case why Monk's lack of rebounding is not hurting the team at all:
UK's defensive rebounding rate is the highest it's been under Calipari
UK's team rebounding success is largely unrelated to Monk's rebounding stats
When Monk is more active rebounding, UK sacrifices transition opportunities
Below, I'll guide you through the data that leads me to these points, and lay out why Monk's role is (and should be) as a transition threat, not as a rebounder.
Yes, Malik Monk is a poor rebounder
There are a number of data points that illuminate what a poor rebounder Malik Monk has been this season:
He has secured 7.0% of the available defensive rebounds when he is on the court, the 2nd lowest defensive rebound rate of any starting guard under Coach Calipari (Marquis Teague, 6.7% in 2012)
He has 9 total offensive rebounds all season
He has an offensive rebound rate of 1.2%, the lowest rate of any player under Calipari at UK
He went 5 consecutive halves (83 minutes of playing time) without getting a single rebound
Despite this, UK is perfectly fine at rebounding
UK ranks 34th in the nation in offensive rebounding rate. That's not as high as UK has usually ranked under Calipari, but it's still quite good. UK is only 128th in defensive rebound rate, but they are always bad at defensive rebounding under Calipari. Their defensive rebounding rate of 71.6% is actually the highest a UK team has posted under Calipari.
So, UK is about as good of a rebounding team as they usually are, despite starting a rebounding non-factor at shooting guard.But, would they be even better if he would put in the work to help out? Let's see what the numbers say.
First, let's set aside offensive rebounding for two reasons:
Monk takes the most shots of anyone on the team, so he's not usually in position to rebound
Kentucky usually has their guards get back on defense and not pursue offensive rebounds
In fact, UK has only had 1 starting guard post an offensive rebound rate above 3.0% in Calipari's tenure (Jamal Murray last year) and only 3 times has a starting guard been above 2.0%. So, Monk's 1.2% is low but not far from normal.
It isn't out of the question for Monk to get more involved at defensive rebounding, however. John Wall, Brandon Knight, and Jamal Murray all posted rates above 10% for UK, and De'Aaron Fox is at 13.3% this year. So, UK has had some guards who contribute on the defensive glass. Would it help UK if Monk pitched in?
To answer this, let's look at some games where he rebounded well defensively, and some games where he did not, and see how much of a difference he made for UK.
Monk's good rebounding games didn't particularly help UK, and his bad ones didn't particularly hurt
Monk had zero defensive rebounds in 6 games: LSU, Florida, Arkansas, UNC, Hofstra, and Stephen F. Austin. We'll call these the "zero games"
Monk had 3 or more defensive rebounds in 12 games: Tennesee (2x), Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Louisville, Arizona State, Cleveland State, Michigan State, and Canisius.We'll call these the "hero games".
Did Monk help UK's rebounding in the hero games, or hurt them in the zero games? Let's look at what the numbers say:
When Monk had his best defensive rebounding games ("hero games"), UK actually had a better defensive rebounding rate with him out of the game. Despite his contribution, UK was actually worse when he was in the game!
In his worst games ("zero games"), UK had a better defensive rebounding rate with him in the game. Even though he didn't contribute, UK rebounded better with him in the game.
Malik Monk's rebounding doesn't seem to affect UK's team rebounding at all! The simple fact is, UK doesn't really need him to rebound well for the team to do well...that's not his role.
When Malik Monk goes after rebounds, UK doesn't get in transition as often
What they do need is his ability to push the ball and score in transition. If Malik Monk is going for defensive rebounds, he's not running the floor in transition. Unlike De'Aaron Fox or Isaiah Briscoe, he's not a great ballhandler in transition; his skill is as a finisher and scorer on the fast break.He isn't able to play that role if he's going after rebounds. We can see this play out in data on UK's transition play in his hero games and zero games:
In Monk's "hero games", UK took 36% of their shots in transition, and Monk took 39% of his own shots in transition
In Monk's "zero games", UK took 41% of their shots in transition, and Monk took 46% of his own shots in transition
UK has a better effective field goal percentage in transition (58%) than in any other situation. Monk himself has a 60% eFg% in transition. Therefore, more UK transition shots = better scoring opportunities. Fewer Monk defensive rebounds = more UK transition shots.
It is a natural reaction for fans to see a player fail to get a rebound for 5 straight halves and blame it on a lack of effort. However, each player has a role, and those roles should add up to team success. UK's team success comes from Monk's role as a transition threat, not as a rebounder. Whether Monk gets rebounds or not doesn't seem to impact UK's team success at rebounding, but it does seem to impact UK's ability to play a transition game. For UK's sake, Malik Monk should keep performing his role as a transition scorer....even if he doesn't get another rebound all season.
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