2018-19 Duke: Bricks equal losses
A common theme in Duke's losses during the 2018-19 season was poor shooting. But what were the underlying causes?
This is the 4th in my 4 part series about the 2018-19 Duke Blue Devils. Visit my archive for past articles on other teams.
There’s a common saying that the NBA is “a make or miss league”. The idea is that there isn’t a huge difference between NBA teams in how often they turn the ball over or draw free throws, so the difference between winning and losing is just hitting shots. It’s overly simplistic, but it does have a kernel of truth especially in games between elite teams. College basketball is a bit of a different animal, however. The greater disparities between good and great teams, as well as between good and great players, plus the unpredictability of 18 to 22 year olds, creates a volatility in results that is difficult to explain or predict.
As an example, in the 2018-19 season:
Auburn was 2nd in the nation in opponent turnover rate at 24.6%, but set a season-low with only 13.9% against Virginia in their Final Four loss
Gonzaga led the nation with an effective FG% of 59%, but had a season low 40% in a WCC tourney loss to St. Mary’s
Michigan was 5th in the nation by turning the ball over on only 14% of possessions, but had their 2nd worst effort of the season (23%) in a 19 point loss to Texas Tech in the Sweet 16
Duke was no exception to this, and their Achilles’ heel during the 2018-19 season was poor shooting nights. In this edition of Hoops Hindsight, I dive into how poor shooting doomed the Blue Devils and what caused it.
Bad shooting led to their worst performances
In their 6 losses, Duke hit 51% of their twos and 26% of their threes; that’s down from 59% and 31% for the season (excluding garbage time). Most of their other offense stats did not drop off as much in their losses, however. Duke’s turnover rate was 18% in losses and for the season, their offensive rebounding rate was 33% in losses and 35% for the season, and they shot free throws just about as often when they lost (a hard thing to do, since you get more when opponents foul to catch up). Poor shooting was the common thread.
The only Duke loss where shooting wasn’t the main issue was their season finale against Michigan State. The issue in that game was that Duke committed 17 turnovers to the Spartans’ 7. But in every other Duke loss during the 2018-19 season, the Blue Devils posted a worse effective FG% than their opponents.
Duke did have a few wins where they were outshot by opponents, but even those tended to be narrow escapes. 4 times Duke had a worse eFG% than their opponent but won the game. These were a 1 point win vs UCF, a 2 point win vs Virginia, a 2 point win vs Louisville, and the oddity, an 11 point win vs Texas Tech (thanks to turnovers and free throws). When Duke was less accurate than their opponents, they usually either lost or came close to it! But what were the causes of their shooting woes?
Most bad shooting games are bad in their own way
Duke’s shooting woes in their losses can be put into 3 different buckets.
Couldn’t score inside (Gonzaga)
The Gonzaga game marked a unique occurrence; it was the only game during the season where Zion Williamson hit less than 50% of his shots at the rim. He was 6-13 , while his teammates were no better at 12-29. Interestingly enough, the 42 shot attempts at the rim were easily a season high for Duke, but the 29% FG% was a season low. This was par for the course for the Zags, who allowed a ton of shots at the rim (276th nationally) but let very few in the basket (3rd in opponent FG% at the rim). The shot blocking brilliance of Brandon Clarke was the main deterrent, and it brought the Blue Devils down in this game.
Chucking from the cheap seats (Syracuse)
There were only 2 games all season where Duke took >50% of their shots from three: Jan 14th vs Syracuse, and Feb 20th vs UNC. The UNC game was notable for Zion’s injury, and it was actually pretty normal for Duke to fire away without their star; 43% of their shots for the season were from deep when Zion sat. But against Syracuse, Zion played 44 of 45 minutes. Additionally, Cam Reddish missed the Syracuse game and was one of Duke’s most trigger-happy bombers all season, taking 62% of his shots from deep. Instead, Duke just seemed to be flummoxed by the trademark 2-3 zone defense and fell into the trap of taking open perimeter looks. RJ Barrett took a season high 17 threes, 6 more than any other game. Jack White took 10, 4 more than any other game, Zion took 5, his 3rd highest total all season. These 3 players combined to hit just 5 of their 32 threes in the game (16%). Maybe trading one wayward bomb for a drive to the hoop would have made the difference and allowed Duke to eke out a regulation win instead of falling in overtime.
Can’t get to the rim without Zion
Duke’s other 3 losses with shooting woes were all somewhat similar, as they came without Zion’s presence. The Blue Devils were allergic to the rim, taking only 25% of their shots there in these 3 losses. That actually wasn’t completely unexpected without Zion, as Duke had huge splits in their ability to get to the rim with and without him on the floor. Prior to his injury, they took 35% of their shots at the rim with Zion sitting and 48% with him on the floor. The split is almost entirely due to Zion’s own shots. When he was in Zion took 72% of his shots at the rim and his teammates took just 37%. Even in the wins where Zion was injured Duke only took 36% of their shots at the rim; the rest of the team just wasn’t able to get to the rim. The player whose role increased the most without Zion was Cam Reddish, who went from taking 19% of Duke’s shots to 30%. But Reddish only took 19% of his shots at the rim all season, 2nd fewest of any Duke regular, and only 21% during Zion’s absence.
When Duke played a poor game during the 2018-19, it was most often their own shooting that doomed them. Whether it was an all-world interior defender (Gonzaga’s Brandon Clarke), a tried-and-true defensive system that suckered the Blue Devils into bombing away (Syracuse), or just the absence of their one rim scorer, unique factors tripped Duke up during most of their losses.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this look back at the 2018-19 Duke Blue Devils, a team that had some breathtaking highs and confusing stumbles. For my next series, I’ll take a look at another major conference team with some NBA talent that exited the postseason early: the 2017-18 Michigan State Spartans with Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson, Jr.