2018-18 Michigan State: Who were the best of the bigs?
The Spartans had a tremendous rotation in the frontcourt, but which players stood out for their on-court impact?
This is the 3rd in a 3 part series covering the 2017-18 Michigan State Spartans. To read previous articles in this or any other Hoops Hindsight series, check out the archive. My next series will cover the 2013-14 Kansas Jayhawks, and will begin on Jannuary 4, 2021.
An embarassment of big man riches
In the illustrious history of Michigan State basketball, there have been many great guards. Magic Johnson, Mateen Cleaves, Scott Skiles, Shawn Respert, Eric Snow, Steve Smith and more have graced the Spartan backcourt on their way to the NBA. The list of frontcourt legens who have worn Spartan green is not quite as illustrious, however. Draymond Green deserves a place in that pantheon, but past him you get to players like Greg Kelser who struggled in the pros, or long-ago legends like Jumpin’ Johnny Green. The typical Spartan big has been a blue-collar role player who can rebound, defend, and maybe score a bit. But during the 2017-18 season, Michigan State had a frontcourt rotation most colleges program would kill for.
They had 3 future NBA draft picks up front in starters Miles Bridges & Jaren Jackson, Jr. with freshman Xavier Tillman coming off the bench. Nick Ward led the nation in offensive rebounding rate and was 85th in defensive rebounding rate. Senior Gavin Schilling would have ranked in the top 90 in both as well if he played enough minutes to qualify. Jackson was 4th in block rate. Seemingly every player they have over 6’7” was either a future pro or one of the best in the nation at some specific big man skill.
In a game that has been careening towards smallball, the Spartans had size. But even in a frontcourt rotation full of good players, someone has to be the best. What was the best way for Michigan State to manage their big man rotation? How often did they manage it that way? In this edition of Hoops Hindsight, we look at the best of the 2017-18 Michigan State bigs.
2 bigs or 1?
If you’ve got 4 really good bigs plus a small forward with size in Miles Bridges, you’re probably best served playing 2 traditional bigs a lot of the time. The Spartans generally did that, and it seems to have worked pretty well.
Michigan State played with 2 big men (from Nick Ward, Jaren Jackson, Jr., Gavin Schilling, Xavier Tillman, or Ben Carter) for 1267 of their non-garbage time possessions, or about 59%. The other 41% they played just 1 traditional big man. The Spartans were:
A better rebounding team with 2 bigs, especially offensively (Got 39% of their misses, vs 33% with 1 big)
Better defensively with 2 bigs, allowing just 35% on 2 point shots (42% with 1 big)
Better at 3 point shooting with 1 big, hitting 41% and taking almost 40% of their shots from deep (vs 38% and 30% with 2 bigs)
Better at avoiding turnovers with 1 big, turning it over on 18% of possessions (vs 22% with 2 bigs)
Overall, Michigan State had an adjusted margin of +30 points per 100 possessions with 2 bigs and +26 with 1 big. Both are great numbers, to be sure, but the data backs up the strategy of playing 2 bigs a bit more.
But it mattered who the 1 big was a great deal….
Not everyone was suited to be the lone big
There was a very clear divide in how well Michigan State played with 1 big depending on who that 1 big was.
Michigan State went with Jaren Jackson, Jr. or Xavier Tillman as the lone big for 330 possessions. The Spartans put up and adjusted margin of +41 point per 100 possessions with Jackson or Tillman patrolling the paint. The team played some of their best offensive basketball with these lineups, scoring 134 points per 100 possessions (vs 117 for the full season) and posting an effective Fg% of 60%. The Spartans hit 44% of their threes with these lineups and took almost 45% of their shots from deep. They reduced their turnover rate to 17% of possessions, and assisted on 69% of their possessions thanks to a heavy dose of catch and shoot threes. They needed this offensive brilliance, because they were a mixed bag defensively. Opponents only turned it over on 12% of their possessions, although the Spartans did limit opponents to a 45% eFG%.
For 530 possessions the Spartans went with Nick Ward, Gavin Schilling, or Ben Carter as the lone big. The results were not as good, with an adjusted margin of +17 points per 100 possessions. The reason for the drop was the offense, which fell to 115 points per 100 possessions thanks to three point shooting dropping to 38% and the turnover rate ticking up to 19%. The defense was again a mixed bag, as opponents turned the ball over on only 15% of possessions and managed a 47% eFG% (largely due to 38% 3 point shooting).
The reason for the improvement when Jackson or Tillman was the lone big can be traced directly to a couple of skills they possessed to a greater degree than their fellow Spartan bigs.
Good passers and quick on D
The offensive improvement with Jackson and Tillman largely came from improved outside shooting. While Jackson was a strong outside shooter himself (hitting 40%), Tillman did not attempt a single three pointer on the season. Both players did help their offense by being excellent passers, especially among their fellow Spartan bigs.
Jaren Jackson, Jr. had the highest assist rate (per KenPom) of any Spartan big, save the little used Ben Carter, as he assisted on 9.3% of his teammates shots when he was on the court. Tillman did not have a strong rate as a freshman, but his assist rate shot up to 13% as a sophomore and 18% as a junior; these are in line with rates put up by wings or shooting guards, not big men. None of Michigan State’s other big men displayed this level of passing ability. This unlocked the spot-up shooting ability of players like Cassius Winston and Matt McQuaid, who were rated in the 100th and 94th percentile respectively by Synergy as spot-up shooters. Not only did the strong passing of Jackson and Tillman unlock this shooting, but these shooters played more often when Michigan State played only 1 big. Winston played over 70% of the possessions when Michigan State had 1 big, but just under 60% with 2 bigs. McQuaid had an even more dramatic split, playing 65% of the 1 big minutes but 30% of the 2 big minutes. Because Michigan State lineups with 1 big skewed to spot-up shooters, the passing ability of Jackson and Tillman made these lineups hum.
Jackson and Tillman also brought defensive skills that the other big didn’t. When a team plays 1 big man, that big usually has more responsibility to help defend the basket on drives. The bigs typically have to cover more ground and react quickly, with quick hands and feet being at a premium.
These skills tend to show up in higher block and steal rates, and Jackson and Tillman had these. They had the 2 highest block rates and steal rates on the whole team in 2017-18. Tillman’s steal rates went even higher in his sophomore and junior campaigns, as he led Michigan State in steal rate all 3 years. While they didn’t force turnovers at a high rate in 1 big lineups, this may have been a function of a conservative defensive scheme. They were clearly able to contest shooters, as they limited opponents to a 45% effective Fg% (including 34% from three). Michigan State’s other bigs were very good at, but not as mobile and active on defense, and benefitted from having a secong big to help with rim protection.
More playing time for the best lineups, and strong results
It took a while for Michigan State to change their rotation and feature Jackson or Tillman in 1 big lineups more often. These lineups played 10 or more possessions in only 5 of the first 23 games for the Spartans, but beginning January 31st against Penn state they began to be featured more. Over the final 12 games of the season Jackson or Tillman played as the only big for 10 possessions or more 10 times. Michigan State was +56 in 183 possessions with them in, and +15 in 581 possessions otherwise. The Spartans had an adjusted margin of +43 points per 100 possessions with them in, and +14 otherwise.
One of the 2 games where Michigan State did not lean on these lineups was their season finale against Syracuse. They only spent 11 possessions with 1 big, and curiously all of that time featured either Xavier Tillman or Ben Carter (both bench players) as the only big man. This was the first game since January 19th against Indiana where Jaren Jackson, Jr. did not play a single possessions as a solo big. In the previous game, he had played a disastrous 7 possessions stretch where a) Michigan State did not make a field goal, b) Michigan State did not get a single rebound, and c) Bucknell scored 17 point in 7 possessions. I’d have to assume the coaches really didn’t like what they saw on film to completely mothball lineups that had been successful. It may have ended up costing them, as they fell to Syracuse by 3 in the second round to end their season.
That wraps up my series on the 2017-18 Michigan State Spartans. They were a very different type of team than Tom Izzo usually coached, and they had an up and down season that ended early. When their pieces clicked, however, they could play with anyone.