2015-15 Kentucky Wildcats: The Loss
They had 40-0 in their sights, but an outstanding Wisconsin Badger team tripped them up in the Final Four.
This is the last of 4 articles about the 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats. Check my archive for previous articles.
With 5 minutes left in the national semifinal, #1 seed and undefeated Kentucky led #1 seed Wisconsin 60-56. The Wildcats had just put together a 16-4 run to take the lead, and most of their fanbase likely thought Kentucky would pull another one out on their way to a showdown with Duke and the pursuit of a perfect season.
Through 38 games (all wins), Kentucky had yet to be outscored by more than 2 points over the final 5 minutes of any game (excluding garbage time). Wisconsin would have to accomplish something no team had done yet that season. It was all set up for the Wildcats to march on…
And then it happened. Over the next 5 minutes, Wisconsin outscored Kentucky by 11 points. The perfect season was over.
How did it end like this?
There was no sign this was coming. During the first 35 minutes, they had an effective FG% of 56% (including 3-3 from 3) with 4 turnovers. In the Elite Eight, Kentucky had outscored Notre Dame by 5 points over the final 5 minutes to eke out a 2 point win. Kentucky had just gone on an 8-0 run against the Badgers to take the lead. It didn’t feel like a collapse was imminent. And then, Kentucky proceeded to go 1-7 from the field with 2 turnovers, posting a -11 in 11 possessions.
Earlier bad runs led to most of UK’s close games
Kentucky had a few stretches during the year where they were outscored in a similar fashion. They had 11-possession stretches against Columbia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, and Georgia where they were outscored by 10 points or more. Kentucky won all of those games, although they accounted for 5 of UK’s 9 games decided by 10 points or fewer.
In 4 of those 5 games (all except Ole Miss), the Kentucky lineup which gave up most of the run consisted of the Harrison twins playing alongside Towns and Cauley-Stein. Sure enough, in the Wisconsin game, those 4 (plus Trey Lyles) were on the receiving end of most of Wisconsin’s advantage. Each time, Kentucky went cold while the opponent couldn’t miss:
Vs Columbia, UK had an eFG% of 14% vs 67% for their opponent
Vs Ole Miss, it was 0% for UK and 83% for the Rebels
Vs Texas A&M, it was 38% to 73%
Vs LSU, it was 28% to 82%
Vs Georgia, it was 33% to 75%
Vs Wisconsin, it was 14% to 70%
The odd thing is these lineups didn’t have problems over the full season. The Harrisons + Cauley-Stein + Towns had a 51% eFG% for the year vs 40% for opponents, with an adjusted margin of +41 pts/100 poss. Add Lyles in and they had an eFg% of 53% vs 40% for opponents, and an adjusted margin of +46. But they were periodically prone to be involved in slumps which allowed the opponent to go on a run.
The Harrisons get the blame, maybe undeservedly so?
Before the next season, John Calipari publicly stated that his decision to go with Andrew and Aaron Harrison in the backcourt over Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker cost UK the game. Coach Calipari is much smarter about his team than I am, but I don’t completely agree with him.
The case for Ulis/Booker is an interesting one. Kentucky was at their best offensively for the year with those 2 as the backcourt, with a 56% eFG%. In games where those 2 shared the backcourt for at least 5 possessions, Kentucky was only outscored two times with them on the floor (Boston U and Vanderbilt). Kentucky had an 81% eFG% earlier in the Wisconsin game in the time Ulis and Booker made up the backcourt. Further, Ulis and Booker did have some clutch experience lifting Kentucky to a win. In double OT against Texas A&M, Aaron Harrison fouled out with 2 minutes left and the score tied at 63. With Ulis and Booker manning the backcourt, Kentucky went on a 5-1 run over the next 90 seconds to pull away.
However, I don’t think playing Ulis and Booker in place of the Harrisons would have necessarily gotten it done. First, the Harrisons didn’t exactly dishonor themselves. Andrew missed a couple of shots, but he was able to penetrate into the lane and get quality looks for Kentucky. Both Harrisons were also solid on defense, containing dribble penetration.
The case for a 3 guard lineup
Instead, I believe the move would have been to bench Trey Lyles in favor of a 3 guard lineup, preferably the Harrisons with Ulis. I went back and watched the last 5 minutes, and Lyles had at least 3 defensive breakdowns against Sam Dekker: 2 on isolations, and one with poor communication on a screen. Additionally, Wisconsin’s defenders helped off Lyles into the post, clogging up UK’s offense.
Looking at Synergy’s player data, the defensive woes in particular weren’t hard to predict. For the season, Lyles was rated in the 91st percentile as a defender against spot ups, but only 59th against isolation. He was more effective using his length to contest shots than moving his feet. But Dekker was rated in the 98th percentile as an isolation scorer, and only the 65th on spotups. Dekker’s strengths played into Lyles’ weaknesses.
Kentucky did bring Ulis into the game, but substituted him for Andrew Harrison. Ulis was effective on Wisconsin’s guards, but UK was still at a disadvantage on the wing. By playing 3 guards, UK could have put Andrew Harrison on Dekker. Andrew was rated in the 82nd percentile as an isolation defender, the best of any UK player who guarded more than 20 such actions. Putting Ulis in and playing 3 guards would have also given Kentucky 2 off-ball shooting threats, maximizing the damage created by Andrew Harrisons’ drives and creating more space for interior players. When playing alongside Aaron Harrison and Tyler Ulis, Andrew Harrison took 26% of his shots at the rim, up from 21% overall. In the same situation, Cauley-Stein and Towns got 63% of their shots at the rim, up from 51% overall. Extra spacing on offense would open up more shots at the rim for Kentucky, which could have allowed them to score enough to maintain a lead.
Kentucky had a great deal of success during the season playing the Harrisons with either Ulis or Booker in 3 guard lineups during pressure situations. With the score within 10 points either way in the final 5 minutes or overtime, the Harrisons/Ulis/WCS/Towns lineup was +24 in 26 possessions, including a 10-0 effort against Notre Dame and 8-0 against Georgia to pull out close games. Similar lineups with Booker in place of Ulis were +13 in 25 possessions. These groups only got 10 total possessions against Wisconsin, and only 1 in the final 5 minutes, however.
Wisconsin was an excellent team that season, ranking 3rd in KenPom’s ratings and having one of the best offenses in recent college basketball history. There’s no shame in losing to a team like that. Everyone associated with Kentucky’s program can only wonder, however, what might have happened if the final 5 minutes had gone differently. There weren’t necessarily any magic bullets to change the outcome, but there are things that could have worked out differently. In hindsight, 2014-15 Kentucky was a historically great team that had the awful timing to have their most destructive stretch of the season at the end of the biggest game.
Thanks for reading the first entry in my Hoops Hindsight series. For the next entry, I’ll turn my gaze 70 miles west to Kentucky’s main rival and look at the 2015-16 Louisville Cardinals. Due to a self-imposed postseason ban, they are almost certainly the best team to not make the NCAA Tournament since the tournament expanded in the 80’s. Subscribe to get it via email, and share if you’re enjoying!