Looking at UofL's Strengths and Matchup Implications
UofL's opponents effective field goal percentage in each game, compared to that opponent's season-long average. For example, Evansville had an eFG% of 31.6% vs UofL, and is averaging 47.8% for the full season.
Of their 24 games this season, UofL has held opponents below their season average eFG% 19 times (79%). Of the 5 times opponents bucked this trend, 2 have been the last 2 games, with the Cardinals at less than full strength. So, it's a good bet that UofL will hold an opponent below their season average in shooting. On average, UofL opponents shoot 8 percentage points worse than their average.
UofL's ability in this area isn't highly dependent on their opponent's skill (or lack of it), either. Elite shooting teams like Purdue, Indiana, and William & Mary all rank in the top 20 nationally, but turned into below average shooting teams against UofL. UofL allowed Pittsburgh to shoot very well in their first matchup, but tightened up in the rematch and held the Panthers to a miniscule 28% eFG%. The correlation between opponent's shooting against UofL and that opponent's season average is only 0.29. That's one of the lowest correlations for any of UofL's Four Factors stats. Basically, when UofL locks in, there aren't many teams that can make shots.
UofL doesn't seem to have a problem locking in this season. The coefficient of variation measures how much a team's performance varies game-by-game, as a percentage of their season average. UofL's coefficient of variation for opponent eFG% is only 18%, one of the lowest for a Four Factor stat. That indicates that UofL doesn't reach their average by being much better or much worse from game-to-game; rather, they are reasonably close to their average on a game-by-game basis. There are occasional fluctuations, but the Cards tend to be very locked in.
So, UofL is very good at limiting opponent shooting, and they are consistently good almost regardless of the opponent's pedigree. This season especially, there isn't much of a surer bet in college basketball than UofL making it really hard for their opponent to hit shots.
UofL is good at offensive rebounding, but very inconsistent
Offensive rebounding is another strength for UofL, as they rank 16th nationally. Similarly to opponent eFG%, UofL has consistently been able to perform better than their opponents allow on average (click image to expand into new window):
UofL's offensive rebounding rate in each game, compared to what their opponents have allowed for the full season. For example, UofL got 51.4% of the available offensive rebounds against Evansville, and Evansvill has allowed opponents to get 27.8% over the full season.
in 20 of their 24 games (83%), UofL has secured a higher percentage of offensive rebounds than their opponents typically allow. Similar to the graph on opponent eFG%, the last 2 games have been an exception with the Cardinals short-handed. So, they've been even better at outperforming opponent averages at offensive rebounding than on limiting shooting. However, there are some differences in how they've gotten there...
UofL's offensive rebounding success has been much more highly correlated to their opponents than the eFG% defense. The correlation between UofL's OReb% and what opponents have allowed is 0.66, indicating that their best games have come against teams that are pretty bad at allowing offensive rebound, and vice versa. If you look at the chart above, you can see that trend; UofL's best games were against teams that allow a lot of offensive boards (Long Beach St., Clemson, Texas Southern), but they performed worse against opponents who tend to limit them (Purdue, Indiana, Virginia).
UofL has also been much less consistent game-to-game; 7 times they've been at 40% or better, which is a top 3 rate nationally, but 4 times they've been below 25%, which is a bottom 50 rate nationally. The coefficient of variation is 28%, which is quite high for UofL's Four Factor stats.
UofL nearly always gets more offensive rebounds than their opponent allows, but they definitely perform worse against teams who usually have success at limiting offensive rebounds. Additionally, it's anybody's guess whether UofL will be way better than the opponent usually allows, or just a little better.
Summary
While UofL has been excellent at shooting defense and offensive rebounding, their shooting defense performance is more consistent and less dependent on the ability of their opponent. UofL's strength in offensive rebounding can be mitigated by teams who are very good at it. Teams who don't depend on great shooting, but are great at offensive and defensive rebounding, will give UofL a tough time. They should mitigate missing shots by collecting offensive rebounds, and can limit UofL's strength in offensive rebounding. Bad matchups for UofL include:
UNC
Wisconsin
Miami
On the flip side, UofL should outperform expectations against teams who usually shoot well but struggle at offensive and defensive rebounding. UofL will wipe out their strength and the opponent won't likely overcome that with rebounding, while UofL should be able to get offensive rebounds of their own. Good matchups for UofL include:
UCLA
Creighton
Virginia Tech
Oregon
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