What can UK expect from Keion Brooks next season?
UK will rely on newcomers next season more than ever before. Only Keion Brooks has given us a glimpse of what he can achieve in a Wildcats uniform, and that was in only 15 minutes per game. We have to close our eyes and imagine pretty hard to get a clear idea of how he might contribute next season. Luckily, here at Hoops Insight we have a pretty active imagination, so we're going to do exactly that today as we try to project what UK can expect from Keion Brooks in the 2020-21 season.
Brooks as a freshman
During his freshman year, Brooks was almost entirely a role player. His KenPom player stats bear this out: he had a below-average usage rate at 17%, and took 19% of UK's shots when he was on the floor. He was not aggressive with the ball, drawing only 2.5 fouls per 40 minutes (2nd lowest on the team, behind Juzang). He was not aggressive as a playmaker, as he assisted on less than 3% of his teammates baskets (2nd lowest on the team, behind Richards). Like many of his teammates he was turnover-prone, turning the ball over on 18% of his possessions. Brooks' contributions were skewed to defense and rebounding; he blocked 3.1% of opponents shots when on the floor (behind only Richards and Montgomery) and stole the ball on 1.4% of opponent possessions (higher than any non-guard for UK). He also had very strong offensive and defensive rebounding rates, so he profiled as an athletic and undersized power forward or supersized wing.
On offense, Brooks was a competent 2 point shooter (51%) but a poor and inactive 3 point shooter (26% on <1 attempt per game). Per hoop-math.com, he was a good finisher at the rim (74% FG%) but only took 34% of his shots there; he took 50% of his shots as 2 point jumpers, behind only EJ Montgomery, and hit just 36%. Brooks was hampered by his role in the offense, however. UK's offense was not designed to create shots for Brooks; only 47% of his makes in halfcourt situations were assisted, the lowest rate of any non-guard on UK. No UK player last season had a higher FG% at the rim with a lower percentage of assisted baskets, so Brooks finished well even without much setup. Brooks also took 19% of his shots in the last 10 seconds of the shot clock, a higher percentage than any other UK player. These tend to be forced, low percentage shots; Brooks had a 35% eFg% on these including a ghastly 17% on 2 point jumpers.
According to Synergy, 1/3 of Brooks offensive possessions featured him as a spot up shooter. Unfortunately, he ranked in the 14th percentile nationally in these situations. He was much more effective in transition, where he ranked in the 94th percentile, and on offensive rebounds (49th percentile) or post ups (54th percentile).
Brooks clearly had areas where he was a positive contributor (defense, rebounding, scoring off hustle) but underwhelmed in most of his time on offense. Next season he'll likely take on a larger role with the team; what can we expect based on how similar UK returnees have played in the past?
Finding comparable UK returnees
Under Calipari, UK has a reputation for churning out one-and-done players, but they've actually had a fair number of notable players come back for their sophomore year. This is particularly true at the forward position. Brooks is the 20th UK player to return for a sophomore season after being a top-50 recruit out of high school, of which 12 have been forwards or centers. Of those 12, 2 are particularly good comps for Brooks, as they:
Rebounded well as forwards despite being somewhat undersized
Took less than 20% of UK's shots when on the floor as freshmen
Shot poorly from the outside
Had encouraging steal/block rates
These players are Wenyen Gabriel and PJ Washington. Let's look at their sophomore years and what that might mean for Brooks:
Wenyen Gabriel
As a freshman Wenyen Gabriel took less than 14% of UK's shots when on the court. He had strong offensive and defensive rebounding rates, and blocked 5% of opponents shots. Similar to Brooks, he had a low assist rate (6%) and high turnover rate (16%). Gabriel took nearly 70% of his shots away from the rim, and hit only 30% of his 2 point jumpers and 31% of his 3's. 38% of his possessions were spot-ups, and he ranked in the 36th percentile nationally.
In his sophomore year, Gabriel's minutes and role increased. He took 16% of UK's shots (still below average, but an increase). His rebounding and defensive stats stayed about the same, although his assist and turnover rates both actually got worse. On offense, Gabriel became a much more effective player. He increased his 3 point frequency, with those accounting for 58% of his shots; his three point accuracy improved to 40% as well. His shooting on 2 point jumpers also improved to 38%. Per Synergy, 37% of his possessions were spot-ups, but he rose to the 73rd percentile with his shooting improvement.
PJ Washington
Nearly every UK fan is very familiar with the improvement made by PJ Washington, but it's worth revisiting the hard numbers here. As a freshman, Washington took 18% of UK's shots. He had solid rebounding and defensive numbers despite standing only 6'7". He had a solid 53% eFG%, but that was entirely dependent on shooting 70% at the rim; Washington hit only 33% of his 2 point jumpers and 24% of his 3 pointers. He was an unwilling outside shooter, taking only 21 three pointers all season. At least UK used his strengths; 21% of his possessions were post-ups, where he ranked in the 91st percentile in points per possession. 14% were spot-ups, where he ranked only in the 12th percentile.
As a sophomore, Washington arose. His minutes were nearly identical, but he took 26% of UK's shots when on the court as he became the hub of the offense. His rebounding and defensive stats were very similar to the year before despite the larger offensive role. His offensive profile shifted dramatically, as he took over 2 three point attempts per game and hit 42%. He also improved his 2 point jumpers accuracy, posting a 44% FG%. His shooting at the rim didn't suffer, as he still hit 67% there. Washington was still used heavily on post-ups (25% of his possessions) and he ranked in the 70th percentile in effectiveness. He became a legitimate spot-up weapon as well, with those making up 22% of his possessions as he ranked in the 84th percentile in effectiveness.
What can we expect from Brooks?
Looking at these two examples, there are a few things we can expect from Brooks:
He will take a larger share of UK's shots
He will continue to be an effective rebounder/defender
He will continue to be used in spot-up situations heavily
He will likely improve significantly on spot-ups
The last 2 points are probably the most controversial. First, I don't know that it's common knowledge how frequently Calipari uses forwards in spot-up situations. A lot of these situations are long two's, but Calipari does like to use big men as safety valves for guards to kick out passes. Terrence Jones, Kyle Wiltjer, Trey Lyles, Derek Willis, EJ Montgomery, as well as the aforementioned Gabriel, Willis, and Brooks were all heavily used in spot-up situations. While Brooks did not perform well in these situations, Calipari has taken similar players and made them into strong spot-up weapons as sophomores. While PJ Washington is the most obvious comp, there is another player who was not a spot-up threat previously who Calipari was able to turn into one. As a sophomore under Billy Gillespie, Patrick Patterson took less than 8% of his shots in spot-up situations and ranked in the 33rd percentile in points per possession. As a junior under Calipari, he was used in spot-ups as often as post-ups and ranked in the 56th percentile on them. He was 0-4 from 3 in 2 seasons prior to Calipari, and hit 35% on 2 attempts per game in his lone season under Calipari.
Given the history of returning forwards under Calipari, it's reasonable to think that Keion Brooks will show more of an offensive game next season while retaining many of the strengths he's displayed elsewhere. It's unlikely that he will see his role change as much as PJ Washington did, but something along the lines of 11 points, 6 rebounds in 25-30 minutes per game, and 34% shooting from 3 on ~50 attempts seems perfectly reasonable based on the evidence. If he can put up those kind of numbers in the SEC, he'll likely be discussed as a late first or early second round draft pick next season.
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