Hoops Insight: How is UofL Hanging on Without Quentin Snider?
UofL Stats with Quentin Snider (through Jan 14th), without Snider before his injury, and since his injury. Stats through the NC State game on Jan 29th.
In order to understand how UofL is playing differently, we'll look at the team's stats in 3 different situations:
With Quentin Snider in the lineup
Without Snider, before his injury
Since his injury
With Snider vs Without, Pre-Injury
The above image lays out the stats for UofL with Quentin Snider in the game. Through the first 18 games of the season, UofL had some clear patterns when Snider played vs when he was on the bench. With Quentin Snider in the game, UofL:
Was more accurate on 3-pointers (35% vs 31%) but less accurate on 2-pointers (47% vs 52%)
Shot 3-pointers less frequently (31.2% of FGA, 33.0% when he was on the bench)
Drew more free throws (38.0% FTA/FGA vs 32.6%)
Turned the ball over less often (16% of possessions vs 19%)
Allowed opponents to shoot better (44% vs 40%)
Allowed fewer free throws (38.9% FTA/FGA vs 42.7%)
Forced slightly more turnovers (22% vs 21%)
Had a lower adjusted +/- per possession (+0.30 vs +0.27)
Not captured in the stats above are how often Snider played against the opponents' best lineups. Prior to his injury, 62% of Snider's time in the game was spent playing against 4 or 5 opposing starters. Opponents only had 4 or 5 starters in for 35% of the time when Snider sat.
So, even though Snider's playing time came against tougher opposing lineups, Louisville shot just about as well, turned it over less, drew more free throws, forced more turnovers, and outscored opponents at a higher margin. In fact, when Snider was out of the game and UofL played against 4 or 5 starters, the results were awful:
27% turnover rate for UofL
51.6 FTA/FGA for opponents
+0.06 Adjusted +/- per possession
Louisville struggled to hold on to the ball, allowed a ton of free throws, and played pretty much like an average college team when they had to play strong opponent lineups with Snider in the game. So, there didn't seem to be much reason for optimism when Snider was injured and UofL faced 2-3 weeks without their starting point guard. But that's not exactly how it turned out...
Since Snider's Injury
Simply put, UofL has been an offensive juggernaut since Snider went out. Their defense is not much changed from pre-injury (as measured by points allowed per possession), but the Cardinals are scoring 1.25 points per possession. That's a huge jump from their pre0injury offensive numbers, and would actually beat out UCLA for best in the nation for the full season. What's more, they are actually scoring better against 4 or 5 opposing starters, at 1.28 points per possession! Overall since the injury, UofL:
Shoots much better on 2-pointers (54%) and 3-pointers (43%)
Shoots 3-pointers about as often (31.6% of FGA)
Shoots free throws less often (30.5 FTA/FGA)
Turns the ball over less often (14% of possessions)
Forces opponents into worse shooting (40% eFg%)
Allows more free throws (43.7% opponent FTA/FGA)
Forces fewer turnovers (18% of opponent possessions)
Amazingly, these results are almost all the same or better when just looking at times when UofL is playing against 4 or 5 starters.
So, what does this all mean? Compared to times when Snider sat pre-injury, a few things are consistent:
UofL has had success limiting opponent shooting
UofL has not forced as many turnovers with Snider
UofL has allowed more free throws without Snider
UofL has not drawn as many free throws without Snider
But, several key things are very different in the last 4 games:
UofL has discovered a shooting touch without Snider
UofL has been able to limit turnovers
UofL has been able to outscore opponents' top lineups
Based on what the numbers say, we can make a few connections. Snider is a key to UofL's pressure, so it makes sense that opponent turnovers are down without him. Given that UofL tends to play big lineups without him, it makes sense that opponents shoot 3-pointers more often and aren't able to get as many good shots around the basket due to UofL's length. Snider's ballhandling is also key to driving through the defense and drawing fouls, so UofL doesn't draw free throws as often with him out.
Since his injury, however, UofL has figured out how to shoot incredibly well. Usually you'd attribute this to Louisville getting more putbacks or fast break shots, but that's not the case; they are actually getting fewer of these (21% of shots since injury, 25% before). UofL is just shooting much better in halfcourt situations. Donovan Mitchell and Deng Adel have also stepped up to take over ballhandling duties, and have combined for only 15 turnovers in the last 4 games; they had 12 in the 4 prior games with Snider doing most of the ballhandling. So, the additional load hasn't been too much for them to handle.
But...some of this shooting and turnover magic may be due to opponents!
Only my adjusted plus/minus numbers truly account for opponent strength. The 3 wins UofL has tallied since Snider's injury have come against Clemson, Pittsburgh, and NC State; in the 16-team ACC, they rank as 3 of the 4 worst teams in opponent field goal percentage. So, that set of teams isn't exactly a murderer's row of defenses. Against Florida State, UofL had a 40% eFg%...so they aren't lights-out all the time.
The bottom line is that UofL has had the fortune of playing some soft defenses without Quentin Snider, and they've shot the ball very well. That isn't likely to continue forever, but it is likely enough to get them comfortably by Boston College. Louisville has consistently had trouble forcing turnovers without Snider, and has allowed a lot of free throws. They also are benefitting by inaccurate opponents settling for more 3-pointers. Against a tough defensive team who can shoot well, particularly on 3-pointers, UofL will be hurting without Snider's ability to pressure the ball and break down the defense. Boston College could test UofL from the outside, as they shoot the 3-pointer fairly well (38%, 47th in the country). The real test is Virginia, who is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country (40%, 12th), best defending teams (allows 45% eFG, 17th), and normally doesn't draw many free throws. If Snider isn't back for that game, UofL may be in a lot of trouble.
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